ALBERT

Description: Observations from satellites provide high-resolution images of ground deformation allowing to infer deformation sources by developing advanced modeling of magma ascent and intrusion processes. Nevertheless, such models can be strongly biased without a precise model of the internal structure of the volcano. In this study, we jointly exploited two interferometric techniques to interpret the 2011–2013 unrest at Campi Flegrei caldera (CFc). The first is the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique, which provides highly-resolved spatial and temporal images of ground deformation. The second is the Ambient Noise Tomography (ANT), which images subsurface structures, providing the constraints necessary to infer the depth of the shallow source at CFc (between 0.8 and 1.2 km). We applied for the first time a tool to delineate the deformation source boundaries from the observed deformation maps: the Total Horizontal Derivative (THD) technique. The THD processes the vertical component of the ground deformation field detected through InSAR applied to COSMO-SkyMed data. The patterns retrieved by applying the THD technique show consistent spatial correlations with (1) the seismic group-velocity maps achieved through the ANT and (2) the distribution of the earthquakes nucleated during the unrest at ~1 km. High-velocity anomalies, the retrieved geometrical features of the deformation field, and the spatial distribution of seismicity coincide with extinct volcanic vents in the eastern part of the caldera (Solfatara/ Pisciarelli and Astroni). Such a coincidence hints at a significant role of the extinct plumbing system in either constraining or channeling the eastward propagation of magmatic fluids. Here, we demonstrated that a joint analysis of the InSAR patterns, seismic structures, and seismicity allows us to model in space and time the characteristics and nature of the shallow deformation source at CFc. Using published literature, we show that the effects of structural heterogeneities at shallow depths may have a more significant early-stage impact on the evolution of the surface displacement signals than deeper magmatic sources: these secondary structural effects may produce local amplification in the deformation records which can be mistakenly interpreted as early signals of impending eruptions. The achieved results are particularly relevant for the understanding of the origin of deformation signal at volcanoes where magma propagation within sills is expected, as at CFc.

Description: Published

Description: 111440

Description: 2V. Struttura e sistema di alimentazione dei vulcani

Description: JCR Journal

Description: © The Author(s), 2020. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Jacox, M. G., Alexander, M. A., Siedlecki, S., Chen, K., Kwon, Y., Brodie, S., Ortiz, I., Tommasi, D., Widlansky, M. J., Barrie, D., Capotondi, A., Cheng, W., Di Lorenzo, E., Edwards, C., Fiechter, J., Fratantoni, P., Hazen, E. L., Hermann, A. J., Kumar, A., Miller, A. J., Pirhalla, D., Buil, M. P., Ray, S., Sheridan, S. C., Subramanian, A., Thompson, P., Thorne, L., Annamalai, H., Aydin, K., Bograd, S. J., Griffis, R. B., Kearney, K., Kim, H., Mariotti, A., Merrifield, M., & Rykaczewski, R. Seasonal-to-interannual prediction of North American coastal marine ecosystems: forecast methods, mechanisms of predictability, and priority developments. Progress in Oceanography, 183, (2020): 102307, doi:10.1016/j.pocean.2020.102307.

Description: Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.

Description: This study was supported by the NOAA Climate Program Office’s Modeling, Analysis, Predictions, and Projections (MAPP) program through grants NA17OAR4310108, NA17OAR4310112, NA17OAR4310111, NA17OAR4310110, NA17OAR4310109, NA17OAR4310104, NA17OAR4310106, and NA17OAR4310113. This paper is a product of the NOAA/MAPP Marine Prediction Task Force.

Description: On September 6, 2017, the solar active region AR 2673 emitted two solar flares: the first at 08:57 UT (X2.2) and the second at 11:53 UT (X9.3); both were powerful enough to black-out high and low frequency radio waves (where UT is universal time). The X9.3 was the strongest solar flare event in the past decade. In this study, we took the advantage of these two extreme flare events to investigate corresponding effects on the ionosphere using multi-instrument observations from magnetometers, Global Positioning System – Total Electron content (GPS-TEC) receivers, ionosondes and Swarm satellites over a large geographical extent covering South American, African and European sectors. During the X2.2 flare, European and African sectors were sunlit and during X9.3 European, African, and South American sectors were sunlit and exposed to the solar flare radiation. During the X2.2 flare, there was an ionosonde blackout for a duration of about 45 min, while during the X9.3 flare this blackout lasted for 1 h and 30 min. The blackout are seen over a large global extent which demonstrates the severity of solar flare events in disrupting the radio communication. The horizontal component of Earth’s geomagnetic field has shown ripples and enhancements during these flare events. The ionospheric Vertical Total Electron Content (VTEC) showed a positive phase along with an intensification of the Equatorial Ionization Anomaly (EIA) over the South American and African sectors. The dynamical and physical processes associated with the TEC and EIA variabilities due to solar flare are discussed.

Description: Published

Description: 1775-1791

Description: 1A. Geomagnetismo e Paleomagnetismo

Description: 2A. Fisica dell'alta atmosfera

Description: JCR Journal

Description: The westernmost Mediterranean hosts part of the plate boundary between the European and African tectonic plates. Based on the scattered instrumental seismicity, this boundary has been traditionally interpreted as a wide zone of diffuse deformation. However, recent seismic images and seafloor mapping studies support that most of the plate convergence may be accommodated in a few tectonic structures, rather than in a broad region. Historical earthquakes with magnitudes Mw 〉 6 and historical tsunamis support that the low-to-moderate instrumental seismicity might also have led to underestimation of the seismogenic and tsunamigenic potential of the area. We evaluate the largest active faults of the westernmost Mediterranean: the reverse Alboran Ridge, and the strike-slip Carboneras, Yusuf and Al-Idrissi fault systems. For the first time, we use a dense grid of modern seismic data to characterize the entire dimensions of the main fault systems, accurately describe the geometry of these structures and estimate their seismic source parameters. Tsunami scenarios have been tested based on 3D-surfaces and seismic source parameters, using both uniform and heterogeneous slip distributions. The comparison of our results with previous studies, based on limited information on the fault geometry and kinematics, indicates that accurate fault geometries and heterogeneous slip distributions are needed to properly assess the seismic and tsunamigenic potential in this area. Based on fault scaling relations, the four fault systems have a large seismogenic potential, being able to generate earthquakes with Mw 〉 7. The reverse Alboran Ridge Fault System has the largest tsunamigenic potential, being able to generate a tsunami wave amplitude greater than 3 m in front of the coasts of Southern Spain and Northern Africa.

Description: Published

Description: 106749

Description: 6T. Studi di pericolosità sismica e da maremoto

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Eruptive columnmodels are powerful tools for investigating the transport of volcanic gas and ash, reconstructing past explosive eruptions, and simulating future hazards. However, the evaluation of these models is challenging as it requires independent estimates of themainmodel inputs (e.g.mass eruption rate) and outputs (e.g. column height). There exists no database of independently estimated eruption source parameters (ESPs) that is extensive, standardized, maintained, and consensus-based. This paper introduces the Independent Volcanic Eruption Source Parameter Archive (IVESPA, ivespa.co.uk), a community effort endorsed by the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Commission on Tephra HazardModelling.We compiled data for 134 explosive eruptive events, spanning the 1902-2016 period, with independent estimates of: i) total erupted mass of fall deposits; ii) duration; iii) eruption column height; and iv) atmospheric conditions. Crucially, we distinguish plume top versus umbrella spreading height, and the height of ash versus sulphur dioxide injection. All parameter values provided have been vetted independently by at least two experts. Uncertainties are quantified systematically, including flags to describe the degree of interpretation of the literature required for each estimate. IVESPA also includes a range of additional parameters such as total grain size distribution, eruption style, morphology of the plume (weak versus strong), and mass contribution from pyroclastic density currents, where available. We discuss the future developments and potential applications of IVESPA and make recommendations for reporting ESPs to maximize their usability across different applications. IVESPA covers an unprecedented range of ESPs and can therefore be used to evaluate and develop eruptive column models across a wide range of conditions using a standardized dataset.

Description: Published

Description: 107295

Description: 5V. Processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Prior to the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption and summit collapse of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i, continuous gravimeters operated on the vent rims of ongoing eruptions at both the summit and Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. These instruments captured the onset of the 2018 lower ERZ eruption and the effects of lava withdrawal from both locales, providing constraints on the timing and style of activity and the physical properties of the lava lakes at both locations. At the summit, combining gravity, lava level, and a three-dimensional model of the vent indicates that the upper ∼200 m of the lava lake had a density of about 1700 kg m−3, slightly greater than estimates from 2011–2015 and possibly indicating a gradual densification over time. At Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō, gravity and vent geometry were used to model both the density and the rate of crater collapse, which was unknown owing to a lack of visual observations. Results suggest the withdrawal of at least m3 of lava over the course of two hours, and a material density of 1800–1900 kg m−3. In addition, gravity data at Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō captured a transient decrease and increase about an hour prior to crater collapse and that was probably related to a small, short-lived fissure eruption on the west flank of the cone and possibly to dike intrusion beneath Pu‘u ‘Ō‘ō. The fissure was the first event in the subsequent cascade that ultimately led to the extrusion of over 1 km3 of lava from lower ERZ vents, collapse of the summit caldera floor by more than 500 m, and the destruction of over 700 homes and other structures. These results emphasize the importance of continuous gravity in operational monitoring of active volcanoes.

Description: Published

Description: 117003

Description: 4V. Processi pre-eruttivi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Lin, H., Tarnas, J. D., Mustard, J. F., Zhang, X., Wei, Y., Wan, W., Klein, F., & Kellner, J. R. Dynamic aperture factor analysis/target transformation (DAFA/TT) for Mg-serpentine and Mg-carbonate mapping on Mars with CRISM near-infrared data. Icarus, 355, (2021): 114168, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.icarus.2020.114168.

Description: Serpentine and carbonate are products of serpentinization and carbonation processes on Earth, Mars, and other celestial bodies. Their presence implies that localized habitable environments may have existed on ancient Mars. Factor Analysis and Target Transformation (FATT) techniques have been applied to hyperspectral data from the Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) to identify possible serpentine and Mg-carbonate-bearing outcrops. FATT techniques are capable of suggesting the presence of individual spectral signals in complex spectral mixtures. Applications of FATT techniques to CRISM data thus far only evaluate whether an entire analyzed image (≈ 3 × 105 pixels) may contain spectral information consistent with a specific mineral of interest. The spatial distribution of spectral signal from the possible mineral is not determined, making it difficult to validate a reported detection and also to understand the geologic context of any purported detections. We developed a method called Dynamic Aperture Factor Analysis/Target Transformation (DAFA/TT) to highlight the locations in a CRISM observation (or any similar laboratory or remotely acquired data set) most likely to contain spectra of specific minerals of interest. DAFA/TT determines the locations of possible target mineral spectral signals within hyperspectral images by performing FATT in small moving windows with different geometries, and only accepting pixels with positive detections in all cluster geometries as possible detections. DAFA/TT was applied to a hyperspectral image of a serpentinite from Oman for validation testing in a simplified laboratory setting. The mineral distribution determined by DAFA/TT application to the laboratory hyperspectral image was consistent with Raman analysis of the serpentinite sample. DAFA/TT also successfully mapped the spatial distribution of Mg-serpentine and Mg-carbonate previously detected in CRISM data using band parameter mapping and extraction of ratioed spectra. We applied DAFA/TT to CRISM images in some olivine-rich regions of Mars to characterize the spatial distribution of Mg-serpentine and Mg-carbonate-bearing outcrops.

Description: This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. 41671360, 41525016, 41902318). JFM and JDT acknowledge NASA support through a subcontract from the Applied Physics Lab for CRISM investigations. H. Lin also acknowledges the support from the key research Program of the Institute of Geology and Geophysics, CAS (IGGCAS-201905). The Headwall imaging spectrometer was acquired using funds to JRK from The Institute at Brown for Environment and Society and Brown University. The DAFA/TT codes are available on GitHub (https://github.com/linhoml?tab=repositories).

Description: © The Author(s), 2021. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Anderson, D. M., Fensin, E., Gobler, C. J., Hoeglund, A. E., Hubbard, K. A., Kulis, D. M., Landsberg, J. H., Lefebvre, K. A., Provoost, P., Richlen, M. L., Smith, J. L., Solow, A. R., & Trainer, V. L. Marine harmful algal blooms (HABs) in the united states: history, current status and future trends. Harmful Algae, 102, (2021): 101975, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.hal.2021.101975.

Description: Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are diverse phenomena involving multiple. species and classes of algae that occupy a broad range of habitats from lakes to oceans and produce a multiplicity of toxins or bioactive compounds that impact many different resources. Here, a review of the status of this complex array of marine HAB problems in the U.S. is presented, providing historical information and trends as well as future perspectives. The study relies on thirty years (1990–2019) of data in HAEDAT - the IOC-ICES-PICES Harmful Algal Event database, but also includes many other reports. At a qualitative level, the U.S. national HAB problem is far more extensive than was the case decades ago, with more toxic species and toxins to monitor, as well as a larger range of impacted resources and areas affected. Quantitatively, no significant trend is seen for paralytic shellfish toxin (PST) events over the study interval, though there is clear evidence of the expansion of the problem into new regions and the emergence of a species that produces PSTs in Florida – Pyrodinium bahamense. Amnesic shellfish toxin (AST) events have significantly increased in the U.S., with an overall pattern of frequent outbreaks on the West Coast, emerging, recurring outbreaks on the East Coast, and sporadic incidents in the Gulf of Mexico. Despite the long historical record of neurotoxic shellfish toxin (NST) events, no significant trend is observed over the past 30 years. The recent emergence of diarrhetic shellfish toxins (DSTs) in the U.S. began along the Gulf Coast in 2008 and expanded to the West and East Coasts, though no significant trend through time is seen since then. Ciguatoxin (CTX) events caused by Gambierdiscus dinoflagellates have long impacted tropical and subtropical locations in the U.S., but due to a lack of monitoring programs as well as under-reporting of illnesses, data on these events are not available for time series analysis. Geographic expansion of Gambierdiscus into temperate and non-endemic areas (e.g., northern Gulf of Mexico) is apparent, and fostered by ocean warming. HAB-related marine wildlife morbidity and mortality events appear to be increasing, with statistically significant increasing trends observed in marine mammal poisonings caused by ASTs along the coast of California and NSTs in Florida. Since their first occurrence in 1985 in New York, brown tides resulting from high-density blooms of Aureococcus have spread south to Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, while those caused by Aureoumbra have spread from the Gulf Coast to the east coast of Florida. Blooms of Margalefidinium polykrikoides occurred in four locations in the U.S. from 1921–2001 but have appeared in more than 15  U.S. estuaries since then, with ocean warming implicated as a causative factor. Numerous blooms of toxic cyanobacteria have been documented in all 50  U.S. states and the transport of cyanotoxins from freshwater systems into marine coastal waters is a recently identified and potentially significant threat to public and ecosystem health. Taken together, there is a significant increasing trend in all HAB events in HAEDAT over the 30-year study interval. Part of this observed HAB expansion simply reflects a better realization of the true or historic scale of the problem, long obscured by inadequate monitoring. Other contributing factors include the dispersion of species to new areas, the discovery of new HAB poisoning syndromes or impacts, and the stimulatory effects of human activities like nutrient pollution, aquaculture expansion, and ocean warming, among others. One result of this multifaceted expansion is that many regions of the U.S. now face a daunting diversity of species and toxins, representing a significant and growing challenge to resource managers and public health officials in terms of toxins, regions, and time intervals to monitor, and necessitating new approaches to monitoring and management. Mobilization of funding and resources for research, monitoring and management of HABs requires accurate information on the scale and nature of the national problem. HAEDAT and other databases can be of great value in this regard but efforts are needed to expand and sustain the collection of data regionally and nationally.

Description: Support for DMA, MLR, and DMK was provided through the Woods Hole Center for Oceans and Human Health (National Science Foundation grant OCE-1840381 and National Institutes of Health grants NIEHS‐1P01-ES028938–01) and the U.S. National Office for Harmful Algal Blooms with funding from NOAA's National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) through the Cooperative Institute for the North Atlantic Region (CINAR) (NA14OAR4320158, NA19OAR4320074). Funding for KAL and DMA was provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science Competitive Research Program under award NA20NOS4780195 to the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center. We also acknowledge support for A.H. from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NOAA] Office of Ocean and Coastal Resource Management Award NA19NOS4780183, C.J.G from NOAA-MERHAB (NA19NOS4780186) and (NA16NOS4780189) for VLT Support was also received for JLS, CJG, and VLT from NOAA-NCCOS-ECOHAB under awards NA17NOS4780184 and NA19NOS4780182. This is ECOHAB publication number ECO972.