ALBERT

Description: The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).

Description: The Colônia Deep Drilling Project held its first International Continental Scientific Drilling Program (ICDP) workshop in September 2014 at the University of São Paulo (Brazil). Twenty-seven experts from six countries discussed the feasibility and the expectations of a deep drilling in the structure of Colônia located at the southwestern margin of the city of São Paulo. After presenting the studies performed at the site during the last decades, participants focused on the objectives, priorities and detailed planning for a full deep-drilling proposal. An excursion to the site and new auger coring showed the importance of the Colônia site for studying the evolution of a tropical rainforest and to evaluate the interplay between the South American summer monsoon, the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the southern Westerlies belt during the last 5 million years. In addition, deep drilling will eventually solve the still unresolved issue of the origin of the structure of Colônia as a result of meteorite impact or endogenous processes.

Description: Ice cores are exceptional archives which allow us to reconstruct a wealth of climatic parameters as well as past atmospheric composition over the last 800 kyr in Antarctica. Inferring the variations in past accumulation rate in polar regions is essential both for documenting past climate and for ice core chronology. On the East Antarctic Plateau, the accumulation rate is so small that annual layers cannot be identified and accumulation rate is mainly deduced from the water isotopic composition assuming constant temporal relationships between temperature, water isotopic composition and accumulation rate. Such an assumption leads to large uncertainties on the reconstructed past accumulation rate. Here, we use high-resolution beryllium-10 (10Be) as an alternative tool for inferring past accumulation rate for the EPICA Dome C ice core, in East Antarctica. We present a high-resolution 10Be record covering a full climatic cycle over the period 269 to 355 ka from Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 9 to 10, including a period warmer than pre-industrial (MIS 9.3 optimum). After correcting 10Be for the estimated effect of the palaeomagnetic field, we deduce that the 10Be reconstruction is in reasonably good agreement with EDC3 values for the full cycle except for the period warmer than present. For the latter, the accumulation is up to 13% larger (4.46 cm ie yr−1 instead of 3.95). This result is in agreement with the studies suggesting an underestimation of the deuterium-based accumulation for the optimum of the Holocene (Parrenin et al. 2007a). Using the relationship between accumulation rate and surface temperature from the saturation vapour relationship, the 10Be-based accumulation rate reconstruction suggests that the temperature increase between the MIS 9.3 optimum and present day may be 2.4 K warmer than estimated by the water isotopes reconstruction. We compare these reconstructions to the available model results from CMIP5-PMIP3 for a glacial and an interglacial state, i.e. for the Last Glacial Maximum and pre-industrial climates. While 3 out of 7 models show relatively good agreement with the reconstructions of the accumulation–temperature relationships based on 10Be and water isotopes, the other models either underestimate or overestimate it, resulting in a range of model results much larger than the range of the reconstructions. Indeed, the models can encounter some difficulties in simulating precipitation changes linked with temperature or water isotope content on the East Antarctic Plateau during glacial–interglacial transition and need to be improved in the future.

Description: Despite California being a highly seismic prone region, most homeowners are not covered against this risk. This study analyses the reasons for homeowners to purchase insurance to cover earthquake losses, with application in California. A dedicated database is built from 18 different data sources about earthquake insurance, gathering data since 1921. A new model is developed to assess the take-up rate based on the homeowners’ risk awareness and the average annual insurance premium amount. Results suggest that only two extreme situations would lead all owners to cover their home with insurance: (1) a widespread belief that a devastating earthquake is imminent, or alternatively (2) a massive decrease in the average annual premium amount by a factor exceeding 6 (from USD 980 to 160, 2015 US dollars). Considering the low likelihood of each situation, we conclude from this study that new insurance solutions are necessary to fill the protection gap.

Description: Holocene eastern Mediterranean Sea sediments contain an organic-rich sapropel S1 layer that was formed in oxygen-depleted waters. The spatial distribution of this layer revealed that during S1 deposition, deep waters were anoxic below a depth of 1800 m. However, whether this boundary permanently existed from the early to the mid-Holocene has not been examined yet. To answer this question, a multi-proxy approach was applied to a core retrieved close to the 1800 m boundary (at 1780 m). We measured the bulk sediment elemental composition, the stable isotopic composition of the planktonic foraminifer Globigerinoides ruber and the abundance of benthic foraminifera since the last deglaciation. The result indicates that authigenic U and Mo accumulation began around 13–12 cal ka BP, in concert with surface water freshening estimated from the G. ruber δ18O record. The onset of bottom and pore water oxygen depletion occurred prior to S1 deposition inferred from barium enrichment. In the middle of the S1 deposition period, reduced authigenic V, Fe and As contents and the Br/Cl ratio indicated short-term bottom-water re-oxygenation. A sharp Mn peak and maximal abundance for benthic foraminifera marked a total recovery for circulation at approximately 7 cal ka BP. Based on our results and existing data, we suggest that S1 formation within the upper 1780 m of the eastern Mediterranean Sea was preconditioned by reduced ventilation, resulting from excess freshwater inputs due to insolation changes under deglacial conditions that initiated between 15 and 12 cal ka BP within the upper 1780 m. Short-term re-oxygenation in the Levantine Basin is estimated to have affected bottom water at least as deep as 1780 m in response to cooling and/or the reduction of freshwater inputs. We tentatively propose that complete ventilation recovery at the S1 termination was depth-dependent, with earlier oxygenation within the upper 1780 m. Our results provide new constraints on vertical water column structure in the eastern Mediterranean Sea since the last deglaciation.

Description: Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) affects the climate in various ways and has a negative impact on human health. In populated mountain valleys from Alpine regions, emissions from road traffic contribute to carbonaceous aerosols, but residential wood burning can be another source of PM during the winter. We determine the contribution of fossil and non-fossil carbon sources by measuring radiocarbon in aerosols using the recently installed AixMICADAS facility. The accelerator mass spectrometer is coupled to an elemental analyzer (EA) by means of a gas interface system directly connected to the gas ion source. This system provides rapid and accurate radiocarbon measurements for small samples (10–100 µgC) with minimal preparation from the aerosol filters. We show how the contamination induced by the EA protocol can be quantified and corrected for. Several standards and synthetic samples are then used to demonstrate the precision and accuracy of aerosol measurements over the full range of expected 14C/12C ratios ranging from modern carbon to fossil carbon depleted in 14C. Aerosols sampled in Chamonix and Passy (Arve Valley, French Alps) from November 2013 to August 2014 are analyzed for both radiocarbon (124 analyses in total) and levoglucosan, which is commonly used as a specific tracer for biomass burning. NOx concentration, which is expected to be associated with traffic emissions, is also monitored. Based on 14C measurements, we can show that the relative fraction of non-fossil carbon is significantly higher in winter than in summer. In winter, non-fossil carbon represents about 85 % of total carbon, while in summer this proportion is still 75 % considering all samples. The largest total carbon and levoglucosan concentrations are observed for winter aerosols with values up to 50 and 8 µg m−3, respectively. These levels are higher than those observed in many European cities, but are close to those for other polluted Alpine valleys. The non-fossil carbon concentrations are strongly correlated with the levoglucosan concentrations in winter samples, suggesting that almost all of the non-fossil carbon originates from wood combustion used for heating during winter. For summer samples, the joint use of 14C and levoglucosan measurements leads to a new model to quantify separately the contributions of biomass burning and biogenic emissions in the non-fossil fraction. The comparison of the biogenic fraction with polyols (a proxy for primary soil biogenic emissions) and with the temperature suggests a major influence of the secondary biogenic aerosols. Significant correlations are found between the NOx concentration and the fossil carbon concentration for all seasons and sites, confirming the relation between road traffic emissions and fossil carbon. Overall this dual approach combining radiocarbon and levoglucosan analyses strengthens the conclusion concerning the impact of biomass burning. Combining these geochemical data both serves to detect and quantify additional carbon sources. The Arve Valley provides a first illustration of this model to aerosols.

Description: Atmospheric particulate matter (PM) affects the climate in various ways and has a negative impact on human health. In populated mountain valleys in Alpine regions, emissions from road traffic contribute to carbonaceous aerosols, but residential wood burning can be another source of PM during winter. We determine the contribution of fossil and non-fossil carbon sources by measuring radiocarbon in aerosols using the recently installed AixMICADAS facility. The accelerator mass spectrometer is coupled to an elemental analyzer (EA) by means of a gas interface system directly connected to the gas ion source. This system provides rapid and accurate radiocarbon measurements for small samples (10–100 µgC) with minimal preparation from the aerosol filters. We show how the contamination induced by the EA protocol can be quantified and corrected for. Several standards and synthetic samples are then used to demonstrate the precision and accuracy of aerosol measurements over the full range of expected 14C ∕ 12C ratios, ranging from modern carbon to fossil carbon depleted in 14C. Aerosols sampled in Chamonix and Passy (Arve River valley, French Alps) from November 2013 to August 2014 are analyzed for both radiocarbon (124 analyses in total) and levoglucosan, which is commonly used as a specific tracer for biomass burning. NOx concentration, which is expected to be associated with traffic emissions, is also monitored. Based on 14C measurements, we can show that the relative fraction of non-fossil carbon is significantly higher in winter than in summer. In winter, non-fossil carbon represents about 85 % of total carbon, while in summer this proportion is still 75 % considering all samples. The largest total carbon and levoglucosan concentrations are observed for winter aerosols with values up to 50 and 8 µg m−3, respectively. These levels are higher than those observed in many European cities, but are close to those for other polluted Alpine valleys. The non-fossil carbon concentrations are strongly correlated with the levoglucosan concentrations in winter samples, suggesting that almost all of the non-fossil carbon originates from wood combustion used for heating during winter. For summer samples, the joint use of 14C and levoglucosan measurements leads to a new model to separately quantify the contributions of biomass burning and biogenic emissions in the non-fossil fraction. The comparison of the biogenic fraction with polyols (a proxy for primary soil biogenic emissions) and with the temperature suggests a major influence of the secondary biogenic aerosols. Significant correlations are found between the NOx concentration and the fossil carbon concentration for all seasons and sites, confirming the relation between road traffic emissions and fossil carbon. Overall, this dual approach combining radiocarbon and levoglucosan analyses strengthens the conclusion concerning the impact of biomass burning. Combining these geochemical data serves both to detect and quantify additional carbon sources. The Arve River valley provides the first illustration of aerosols of this model.

Description: This paper presents selected results of the interdisciplinary research project Impacts of extreme weather events on infrastructure in Norway (InfraRisk) carried out between 2010 to 2013, as part of the program NORKLIMA (2004 2013) of the Research Council of Norway (RCN). The project has systematized large amounts of existing data and generated new results that are important for our handling of risks associated with future extreme weather and natural hazards threatening the transport infrastructure in Norway. The results of the InfaRisk project range widely, from the establishment of trends in key weather elements to studies of human response to threats from extreme weather. The analyses of weather elements have provided a clearer understanding of the trends in the development of extreme weather. The studies are based on both historical data and available future scenarios (projections) from climate models. Compared to previous studies, we calculated changes in climate variables that are particularly important in relation to nature hazards. Overall, the analyses document an increase in frequency as well as intensity of both precipitation and wind. Results of projections show that the observed changes will continue throughout this century. We could also identify large regional differences, with some areas experiencing, e.g., a reduction in the intensity of heavy rainfall events. However, most of the country will experience the opposite, i.e., both increased intensity and increased frequency of heavy precipitation. Our analyses show that at least 27 per cent of Norwegian roads and 31 per cent of railroads are exposed to rock fall and snow avalanches hazards. The project has also assessed relationships between different parameters that can affect the likelihood of debris flows. Variables such as terrain slope and size of watercourses are important, while local climate, which varies widely in Norway, determines threshold values for rainfall that can trigger debris flows.

Description: Despite California is a highly seismic prone region, most of homeowners are not covered against this risk. This study analyses the reasons for homeowners to purchase or not an insurance to cover earthquake losses, with application in California. A dedicated database is built from 18 different data sources about earthquake insurance, gathering data since 1921. A new model is developed to assess the take-up rate based on the homeowners’ risk awareness and the average annual insurance premium amount. Results suggest that only two extreme situations would lead all owners to cover their home with insurance: (1) a widespread belief that a devastating earthquake is imminent, or alternatively, (2) a massive decrease in the average annual premium amount by a factor exceeding 6 (from $980 to $160, USD 2015). Considering the low likelihood of each situation, we conclude from this study that new insurance solutions are necessary to fill the protection gap.