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  • 2020-2022  (16)
  • 1
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    An 18-year climatology of derechos in Germany (2020)
    Copernicus
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    Publication Date: 2020-05-19
    Description: Derechos are high-impact convective wind events that can cause fatalities and widespread losses. In this study, 40 derechos affecting Germany between 1997 and 2014 are analyzed to estimate the derecho risk. Similar to the United States, Germany is affected by two derecho types. The first, called warm-season-type derechos, form in strong southwesterly 500 hPa flow downstream of western European troughs and account for 22 of the 40 derechos. They have a peak occurrence in June and July. Warm-season-type derechos frequently start in the afternoon and move either eastward along the Alpine forelands or northeastward across southern central Germany. Associated proximity soundings indicate strong 0–6 and 0–3 km vertical wind shear and a median of mixed-layer convective available potential energy (mixed-layer CAPE) around 500 J kg−1. The second derecho type, the cold-season-type derecho, forms in strong northwesterly 500 hPa flow, frequently in association with mid-tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) intrusions, and accounts for 18 of the 40 derechos. They are associated with a secondary peak from December to February. Cold-season-type derechos start over or close to the North Sea and primarily affect northern and central Germany; their start time is not strongly related to the peak of diurnal heating. Proximity soundings indicate high-shear–low-CAPE environments. A total of 15 warm-season-type and 9 cold-season-type derechos had wind gusts reaching 33 m s−1 in at least three locations. Although warm-season derechos are more frequent, the path length of cold-season-type derechos is on average 1.4 times longer. Thus, these two types of German derechos are likely to have similar impacts.
    Print ISSN: 1561-8633
    Electronic ISSN: 1684-9981
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.
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  • 2
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    Defender and Expositor of the Bergen Methods of Synoptic Analysis: Significance, History, and Translation of Bergeron’s (1928) “Three-Dimensionally Combining Synoptic Analysis” (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-06-12
    Description: Tor Bergeron was a key member of the Bergen School of Meteorology that developed some of the most influential contributions to synoptic analysis in the 20th century: air-mass analysis, polar-front theory, and the Norwegian cyclone model. However, the eventual success of these so-called Bergen methods of synoptic analysis was not guaranteed. Concerns and criticisms of the methods—in part from the lack of referencing to prior studies, overly simplified conceptual models, and lack of real data in papers by J. Bjerknes and Solberg—were inhibiting worldwide adoption. Bergeron’s research output in the 1920s was aimed at addressing these concerns. His doctoral thesis, written in German, was published as a journal article in Geofysiske Publikasjoner in 1928. Here, an accessible and annotated English translation is provided along with a succinct overview of this seminal study. Major interlaced themes of Bergeron’s study were the first comprehensive description of the Bergen methods; a vigorous defense of cyclogenesis as primarily a lower-tropospheric process as opposed to an upper-tropospheric/lower-stratospheric one; a nuanced explanation of the assertion that meteorology constituted a distinct and special scientific discipline; and, very understandably, a thorough account of Bergeron’s own contributions to the Bergen School. His contributions included identifying how deformation results in frontogenesis and frontolysis, quantifying subjectively the influence of aerosols on visibility, and explaining the role of the ambient conditions in the onset of drizzle as opposed to rain showers—a distinction that led the formulation of the Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen process.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    A Synoptic Climatology of Spring Dryline Convection in the Southern Great Plains (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-15
    Description: A dataset of drylines within a region of the southern Great Plains was constructed to investigate the large-scale environments associated with the initiation of deep moist convection. Drylines were identified using NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center surface analyses for all April, May, and June days 2006–15. Doppler radar and visible and infrared satellite imagery were used to identify convective drylines, where deep, moist convection was deemed to have been associated with the dryline circulation. Approximately 60% of drylines were convective, with initiation most frequently occurring between 2000 and 2100 UTC. Composite synoptic analyses were created of 179 convective and 104 nonconvective dryline days. The composites featured an upper-level long-wave trough to the west of the Rockies and a ridge extending across the northern and eastern United States. At the surface, the composites featured a broad surface cyclone over western Texas and southerly flow over the south-central states. Convective drylines featured more amplified upper-level flow, associated with a deeper trough in the western United States and a stronger downstream ridge than nonconvective drylines up to 5 days preceding a dryline event. By the day of a dryline event, the convective composite features greater low-level specific humidity and higher CAPE than the nonconvective composite. These results demonstrate that synoptic-scale processes over several days help create conditions conducive to deep, moist convection along the dryline.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Antecedents for the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model in the Bergen School Literature (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-09-25
    Description: Two widely accepted conceptual models of extratropical cyclone structure and evolution exist: the Norwegian and Shapiro–Keyser cyclone models. The Norwegian cyclone model was developed around 1920 by the Bergen School meteorologists. This model has come to feature an acute angle between the cold and warm fronts, with the reduction in the area of the warm sector during the evolution of the cyclone corresponding to the formation of an occluded front. The Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model was developed around 1990 and was motivated by the recognition of alternative frontal structures depicted in model simulations and observations of rapidly developing extratropical cyclones. This model features a right angle between the cold and warm fronts (T-bone), a weakening of the poleward portion of the cold front (frontal fracture), an extension of the warm or occluded front to the rear of and around the cyclone (bent-back front), and the wrapping around of the bent-back front to form a warm-core seclusion of post-frontal air. Although the Norwegian cyclone model preceded the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model by 70 years, antecedents of features of the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model were apparent in observations, analyses, and conceptual models presented by the Bergen School meteorologists, their adherents, and their progeny. These “lost” antecedents are collected here for the first time to show that the Bergen School meteorologists were aware of them, although not all of the antecedents survived until their reintroduction into the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model in 1990. Thus, the Shapiro–Keyser cyclone model can be viewed as a synthesis of various elements of cyclone structure and evolution recognized by the Bergen School meteorologists.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Synoptic-Scale Environments and Precipitation Morphologies of Tornado Outbreaks from Quasi-Linear Convective Systems in the United Kingdom (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-07-31
    Description: Nine tornado outbreaks (days with three or more tornadoes) have occurred in the United Kingdom from quasi-linear convective systems (QLCSs) in the 16 years between 2004 and 2019. Of the nine outbreaks, eight can be classified into two synoptic categories: type 1 and type 2. Synoptic categories are derived from the location of the parent extratropical cyclone and the orientation of the surface front associated with the QLCS. Environmental differences between the categories are assessed using ERA5 reanalysis data. Type 1 events are characterized by a confluent 500-hPa trough from the west, meridional cold front, strong cross-frontal wind veer (about 90°), cross-frontal temperature decrease of 2°–4°C, prefrontal 2-m dewpoint temperatures of 12°–14°C, a prefrontal low-level jet, and prefrontal 0–1- and 0–3-km bulk shears of 15 and 25 m s−1, respectively. In contrast, type 2 events are characterized by a diffluent 500-hPa trough from the northwest, zonal front, weaker cross-frontal wind veer (≤45°), much smaller cross-frontal temperature decrease, lower prefrontal 2-m dewpoint temperatures of 6°–10°C, and weaker prefrontal 0–1- and 0–3-km bulk shears of 10 and 15 m s−1, respectively. Analysis of the Met Office radar reflectivity mosaics revealed that narrow cold-frontal rainbands developed in all type 1 events and subsequently displayed precipitation core-and-gap structures. Conversely, type 2 events did not develop narrow cold-frontal rainbands, although precipitation cores developed sporadically within the wide cold-frontal rainband. Type 1 events produced tornadoes 2–4 h after core-and-gap development, whereas type 2 events produced tornadoes within 1 h of forming cores and gaps. All events produced tornadoes during a relatively short time period (1–3 h).
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Significance Statements Broaden Our Audience (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-08-10
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    Hindcasting the First Tornado Forecast in Europe: 25 June 1967 (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-02-25
    Description: The tornado outbreak of 24–25 June 1967 was the most damaging in the history of western Europe, producing 7 F2–F5 tornadoes, 232 injuries, and 15 fatalities across France, Belgium, and the Netherlands. Following tornadoes in France on 24 June, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) issued a tornado forecast for 25 June, which became the first ever—and first verified—tornado forecast in Europe. Fifty-two years later, tornadoes are still not usually forecast by most European national meteorological services, and a pan-European counterpart to the NOAA/NWS/Storm Prediction Center (SPC) does not exist to provide convective outlook guidance; yet, tornadoes remain an extant threat. This article asks, “What would a modern-day forecast of the 24–25 June 1967 outbreak look like?” To answer this question, a model simulation of the event is used in three ways: 20-km grid-spacing output to produce a SPC-style convective outlook provided by the European Storm Forecast Experiment (ESTOFEX), 800-m grid-spacing output to analyze simulated reflectivity and surface winds in a nowcasting analog, and 800-m grid-spacing output to produce storm-total footprints of updraft helicity maxima to compare to observed tornado tracks. The model simulates a large supercell on 24 June and weaker embedded mesocyclones on 25 June forming along a stationary front, allowing the ESTOFEX outlooks to correctly identify the threat. Updraft helicity footprints indicate multiple mesocyclones on both days within 40–50 km and 3–4 h of observed tornado tracks, demonstrating the ability to hindcast a large European tornado outbreak.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    Nonclassic Evolution of a Cold-Frontal System across the Western United States during the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX) (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-02-01
    Description: A cold-frontal passage through northern Utah was studied using observations collected during intensive observing period 4 of the Intermountain Precipitation Experiment (IPEX) on 14–15 February 2000. To illustrate some of its nonclassic characteristics, its origins are considered. The front developed following the landfall of two surface features on the Pacific coast (hereafter, the cold-frontal system). The first feature was a surface pressure trough and wind shift associated with a band of precipitation and rope cloud with little, if any, surface baroclinicity. The second, which made landfall 4 h later, was a wind shift associated with weaker precipitation that possessed a weak temperature drop at landfall (1°C in 9 h), but developed a stronger temperature drop as it moved inland over central California (4°–6°C in 9 h). As the first feature moved into the Great Basin, surface temperatures ahead of the trough increased due to downslope flow and daytime heating, whereas temperatures behind the trough decreased as precipitation cooled the near-surface air. Coupled with confluence in the lee of the Sierra Nevada, this trough developed into the principal baroclinic zone of the cold-frontal system (8°C in less than an hour), whereas the temperature drop with the second feature weakened further. The motion of the surface pressure trough was faster than the posttrough surface winds and was tied to the motion of the short-wave trough aloft. This case, along with previously published cases in the Intermountain West, challenges the traditional conceptual model of cold-frontal terminology, structure, and evolution.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    Enlarging the Severe Hail Database in Finland by Using a Radar-Based Hail Detection Algorithm and Email Surveys to Limit Underreporting and Population Biases (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-03-18
    Description: Collecting hail reports to build a climatology is challenging in a sparsely populated country such as Finland. To expand an existing database, a new approach involving daily verification of a radar- and numerical weather prediction–based hail detection algorithm was trialed during late May–August for the 10-yr period, 2008–17. If the algorithm suggested a high likelihood of hail from each identified convective cell in specified locations, then an email survey was sent to people and businesses in these locations. Telephone calls were also used occasionally. Starting from 2010, the experiment was expanded to include trained storm spotters performing the surveys (project called TATSI). All the received hail reports were documented (severe or ≥2 cm, and nonsevere, excluding graupel), giving a more complete depiction of hail occurrence in Finland. In combination with reports from the general public, news, and social media, our hail survey resulted in a 292% increase in recorded severe hail days and a 414% increase in observed severe hail cases compared to a climatological study (1930–2006). More than 2200 email surveys were sent, and responses to these surveys accounted for 53% of Finland’s severe hail cases during 2008–17. Most of the 2200 emails were sent into rural locations with low population density. These additional hail reports allowed problems with the initial radar-based hail detection algorithm to be identified, leading to the introduction of a new hail index in 2009 with improved detection and nowcasting of severe hail. This study shows a way to collect hail reports in a sparsely populated country to mitigate underreporting and population biases.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Weather Patterns Associated with Pain in Chronic-Pain Sufferers (2020)
    American Meteorological Society
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    Publication Date: 2020-05-01
    Description: The belief that weather influences people’s health has been prevalent for millennia. Recent studies on the relationship between weather and pain for those who suffer from chronic pain remain indeterminate, with some studies finding strong effects and others finding no effects; most studies face limitations to their study design or dataset size. To address these limitations, a U.K.-wide smartphone study Cloudy with a Chance of Pain was conducted over 15 months with 10,584 citizen scientists who suffer from chronic pain, producing the largest dataset both in duration and number of participants. Compared to other similar citizen-science studies, our retention of participants was substantially better, with 15% still entering data nearly every day after 200 days. Analysis of the dataset using synoptic climatology and compositing revealed the daily weather associated with a prevalence of high pain and low pain across the population. Specifically, our results indicate that the top 10% of days with a high percentage of participants (about 20%) experiencing a pain event (represented here by a +1 change or greater in their pain level on a 5-point scale; referred to as a high-pain day) were associated with below-normal pressure, above-normal humidity, higher precipitation rate, and stronger wind. In contrast, the bottom 10% of days with a small percentage of participants (about 10%) experiencing a pain event (a low-pain day) were associated with above-normal pressure, below-normal humidity, lower precipitation rate, and weaker wind. Thus, these synoptic weather patterns support the beliefs of many participants who said that low pressure—and its accompanying weather—was associated with a pain event.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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