ALBERT

Description: Short‐term global ensemble predictions of rainfall currently have no skill over northern tropical Africa when compared to simple climatology‐based forecasts, even after sophisticated statistical postprocessing. Here, we demonstrate that 1‐day statistical forecasts for the probability of precipitation occurrence based on a simple logistic regression model have considerable potential for improvement. The new approach we present here relies on gridded rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission for July‐September 1998–2017 and uses rainfall amounts from the pixels that show the highest positive and negative correlations on the previous two days as input. Forecasts using this model are reliable and have a higher resolution and better skill than climatology‐based forecasts. The good performance is related to westward propagating African easterly waves and embedded mesoscale convective systems. The statistical model is outmatched by the postprocessed dynamical forecast in the dry outer tropics only, where extratropical influences are important.

Description: Plain Language Summary: Forecasts of precipitation for the next few days based on state‐of‐the‐art weather models are currently inaccurate over northern tropical Africa, even after systematic forecast errors are corrected statistically. In this paper, we show that we can use rainfall observations from the previous 2 days to improve 1‐day predictions of precipitation occurrence. Such an approach works well over this region, as rainfall systems tend to travel from the east to the west organized by flow patterns several kilometers above the ground, called African easterly waves. This statistical forecast model requires training over a longer time period (here 19 years) to establish robust relationships on which future predictions can be based. The input data employed are gridded rainfall estimates based on satellite data for the African summer monsoon in July to September. The new method outperforms all other methods currently available on a day‐to‐day basis over the region, except for the dry outer tropics, where influences from midlatitudes, which are better captured by weather models, become more important.

Description: Key Points: Raw and statistically postprocessed global ensemble forecasts fail to predict West African rainfall occurrence. A logistic regression model using observations from preceding days outperforms all other types of forecasts. The skill of the statistical model is mainly related to propagating African easterly waves and mesoscale convective systems.

Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft

Description: Klaus Tschira Stiftung

Description: ENGLISH: Since its inception in 1950 by agreement between the Republic of Costa Rica and the United States of America, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission has been engaged in studies of the biology, ecology and population dynamics of yellowfin tuna in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Prime consideration has been given to the evaluation of the effects of fishing pressure on the yellowfin tuna in this area in order to estimate the maximum sustainable yield. A portion of the eastern Pacific has been defined by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (1963) as a regulatory area for yellowfin tuna (Figure 1). SPANISH: Desde su incepción en 1950, por un acuerdo entre la República de Costa Rica y los Estados Unidos de América, la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical ha estado ocupada en los estudios de la biología, ecología y dinámica de las poblaciones del atún aleta amarilla en el Océano Pacífico Oriental. Se consideró primariamente la evaluación de los efectos de lapresión de la pesquería sobre el atún aleta amarilla en esta área, para poder estimar el rendimiento máximo sostenible. Una parte del Pacífico Oriental ha sido definida por la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical (1963), como área de reglamentación del atún aleta amarilla (Figura 1).(PDF contains 60 pages.)

Description: This article is bilingual and contains both Spanish and English translations.

Description: ENGLISH: In this paper, a method of analysis described by Gulland (1963) has been used to estimate the fishing mortality rates of tagged yellowfin and skipjack tuna for specific areas and years. Fishing mortality rates obtainedfor tagged tunas will also represent those for the entire population from which the tagged fishes were drawn, provided the assumptions used and corrections made for these analyses are valid. Total mortality rates of tagged fishes have also been computed. These are not assumed to be directly equivalent to the total mortality rates of the untagged populations,since tagged fishes are subject to additional types of attrition. These additional sources of mortality are also examined in this study.SPANISH: En el presente trabajo se ha usado un método de análisis descrito por Gulland (1963), para estimar las tasas de mortalidad de pesca de los atunes aleta amarilla y barrilete marcados en áreas y años específicos. Las tasas de mortalidad de pesca obtenidas en atunes marcados representarán también las de toda la población, de la cual fueron extraídos, previendo que las suposiciones usadas y las correcciones hechas para estos análisis sean válidas. Las tasas de mortalidad total de los peces marcados también han sido computadas. No se supone que éstas sean directamente equivalentes a las tasas de mortalidad total de las poblaciones no marcadas, ya que los peces marcados están sujetos también a otros tipos de pérdida. Estas otras causas de mortalidad son examinadas también en el presenteestudio.

Description: This article is bilingual and contains both English and Spanish translations.

Description: ENGLISH: Totals of 59,547 tagged yellowfin and 90,412 tagged skipjack were released during 1952-1964 throughout the range of the fishery in the eastern Pacific Ocean during that period. Most of the fish were released from commercial baitboats, either on regular fishing trips or on chartered trips to catch fish for tagging. There we re 8,397 yellowfin and 4,381 skipjack returned from these releases. There appear to be two main groups of yellowfin in the eastern Pacific Ocean. There is considerable intermingling among the fish of the two groups, however. The fish of the northern group (west coastof Baja California, Gulf of California, and Revillagigedo Islands) first appear in the Revillagigedo Islands in about April, and migrate north along the Baja California coast during the spring and summer and south along that coast during the fall. Recruits to the southern group (Tres Marias Islands to northern Chile) appear at many points or continuously along most of the coast. The fish which first appear in the northern Panama Bight in April migrate rapidly northwest to Central America and Mexico and south to the Gulf of Guayaquil. There also appear to be two main groups of skipjack in the eastern Pacific Ocean. The fish of the northern group (west coast of Baja California, Gulf of California, and Revillagigedo Islands ) perform about the same migration as do the yellowfin of the same area, but most of the skipjack apparently then migrate to the central Pacific Ocean during the fall and/or winter. Recruits to the southern group (Central America to northern Chile) appear mostly in or near the Panama Bight. The fish which first appear in the northern Panama Bight in April migrate rapidly northwest to Central America and south to the Gulf of Guayaquil. The proportions which migrate in these directions vary considerably from year to year, this perhaps being dependent on differences in the sea-surface temperatures. SPANISH: Durante el período de 1952-1964 se liberó a través de todos los límites de distribución de la pesquería en el Océano Pacífico oriental un total de 59,547 aleta amarilla y 90,412 barriletes marcados. La mayoria de los peces fueron liberados de barcos de carnada comerciales, o en viajes regulares de pesca o en viajes en los que se fletaron los barcos para capturar atunes y marcarlos. De estas líberaciones se recapturaron 8,397 aleta amarilla y 4,381 barriletes. Parece que haya dos grupos principales de aleta amarilla en el Océano Pacífico oriental. Sin embargo, existe una entremezcla considerable entre los peces de los dos grupos. Los peces del grupo septentrional (costa occidental de Baja California, Golfo de California y Islas Revillagigedo) aparecen primero en las Islas Revillagigedo alrededor de abril, y durante la primavera y el verano se desplazan al norte a lo largo de la costa de Baja California y durante el otoño al sur a lo largo de la costa. Los reclutas del grupo meridional (Islas Tres Marias hasta el norte de Chile) aparecen en muchas partes o continuamente a lo largo de la mayoría de la costa. Los peces que aparecen primero en la región septentrional del Panamá Bight en abril se desplazanrápidamente al noroeste a la América Central y México y al sur al Golfo de Guayaquil. Parece también que existen dos grupos principales de barrilete en el Océano Pacífico oriental. Los peces del gr upo septentrional (costa occidental de Baja California, Golfo de California e Islas Revillagigedo )realizan casi la misma migración que el atún aleta amarilla de la misma área, pero aparentemente la mayor parte del barrilete se desplaza luego al Océano Pacífico central durante el otoño y/o en el invierno. Los reclutas al grupo meridional (América Central al norte de Chile) aparecen en su mayoría en el Panamá Bight o cerca a este lugar. Los peces que aparecen primero en la región septentrional del Panamá Bight en abril se desplazan rápidamente al noroeste a la América Central y al sur al Golfo de Guayaquil. Las proporciones que se desplazan en estas direcciones varían considerablemente de año a año; tal vez esto depende en las diferencias de temperatura de la superficie del mar.(PDF contains 227 pages.)

Description: This article is bilingual and contains both Spanish and English translations.

Description: ENGLISH: The present paper describes a new method for estimating the shedding rate of tags. The method utilizes not only data on tagging and recovery of fish marked with two tags but also data from those marked with one. One important advantage of the new technique is that the estimates of the shedding rates are free from distortion caused by variations in fishing intensity during the total recovery period. The idea of this method appears to be implicit in a short note by Gulland (1963). This technique has been applied to the data obtained by the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission in a tagging cruise off the west coast of southern Baja California, during June 1963, at which time both single and double-tagged yellowfin tuna were released. Details of the tagging procedure and equipment have been described by Fink (1965b). The results presented in the present paper are for yellowfin tuna tagged with dart tags. Estimates of shedding should be made separately for each species investigated and also for each type of tag used, since these rates may be variable and often unexpectedly high (Springer and McErlean 1961, Chadwick 1963).SPANISH: El presente estudio describe un nuevo método para estimar las tasas del desprendimiento de marcas. El método emplea no solamente los datos sobre la marcación y recobro de peces marcados con dos marcas, pero también datos de los peces marcados con una marca. Una ventaja importante de la nueva técnica, es que las estimaciones de las tasas de desprendimiento son libres de alteración, causada por las variaciones en la intensidad de pesca durante el período total de recobro. La idea de este método parece ser implícita en un breve apunte por Gulland (1963). Esta técnica se ha aplicado a los datos obtenidos por la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical, en un crucero de marcación efectuado frente a la costa occidental al sur de Baja California, en junio de 1963, tiempo en el cual fueron liberados atunes aleta amarilla marcados tanto con una como con dos marcas. Los detalles del procedimiento de la marcación y del equipo usado han sido descritos por Fink (1965b). Los resultados presentados en este estudio, pertenecen al atún aleta amarilla marcado con marcas de dardo. Las estimaciones del desprendimiento deben efectuarse separadamente para cada especie que ha sido investigada y también para cada tipo de marca usado, ya que estas tasas pueden ser vaiables, y a menudo inesperadamente altas (Springer y McErlean 1961, Chadwick 1963).(PDF contains 20 pages.)

Description: This article is bilingual and contains both Spanish and English translations.

Description: Water availability plays an important role in the expansion planning of utility-scale solar power plants, especially in the arid regions of the Middle East and North Africa. Although these power plants usually account for only a small fraction of local water demand, competition for water resources between communities, farmers, companies, and power suppliers is already emerging and is likely to intensify in future. Despite this, to date there has been a lack of comprehensive studies analyzing interdependencies and potential conflicts between energy and water at local level. This study addresses this research gap and examines the linkages between water resources and energy technologies at local level based on a case study conducted in Ouarzazate, Morocco, where one of the largest solar power complexes in the world was recently completed. To better understand the challenges faced by the region in light of increased water demand and diminishing water supply, a mixed-method research design was applied to integrate the knowledge of local stakeholders through a series of workshops. In a first step, regional socio-economic water demand scenarios were developed and, in a second step, water saving measures to avoid critical development pathways were systematically evaluated using a participatory multi-criteria evaluation approach. The results are a set of water demand scenarios for the region and a preferential ranking of water saving measures that could be drawn upon to support decision-making relating to energy and water development in the region.

Description: Given large potentials of the MENA region for renewable energy production, transitions towards renewables-based energy systems seem a promising way for meeting growing energy demand while contributing to greenhouse gas emissions reductions according to the Paris Agreement at the same time. Supporting and steering transitions to a low-carbon energy system require a clear understanding of socio-technical interdependencies in the energy system as well as of the principle dynamics of system innovations. For facilitating such understanding, a phase model for renewables-based energy transitions in MENA countries, which structures the transition process over time through the differentiation of a set of sub-sequent distinct phases, is developed in this article. The phase model builds on a phase model depicting the German energy transition, which was complemented by insights about transition governance and adapted to reflect characteristics of the MENA region. The resulting model includes four phases ("Take-off renewables", "System integration", "Power to fuel/gases”, "Towards 100% renewables”), each of which is characterized by a different cluster of innovations. These innovations enter the system via three stages of development which describe different levels of maturity and market penetration, and which require appropriate governance. The phase model has the potential to support strategy development and governance of energy transitions in MENA countries in two complementary ways: it provides an overview of techno-economic developments as orienting guidelines for decision-makers, and it adds some guidance as to which governance approaches are suitable for supporting those developments.

Description: During the DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) field campaign ∼900 radiosondes were launched from 12 stations in southern West Africa from 15 June to 31 July 2016. Subsequently, data-denial experiments were conducted using the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to assess the radiosondes' impact on the quality of analyses and forecasts. As observational reference, satellite-based estimates of rainfall and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) as well as the radiosonde measurements themselves are used. With regard to the analyses, the additional observations show positive impacts on winds throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere, while large lower-tropospheric cold and dry biases are hardly reduced. Nonetheless, downstream, that is farther inland from the radiosonde stations, we find a significant increase (decrease) in low-level night-time temperatures (monsoon winds) when incorporating the DACCIWA observations, suggesting a possible linkage via weaker cold air advection from the Gulf of Guinea. The associated lower relative humidity leads to reduced cloud cover in the DACCIWA analysis. Closer to the coast and over Benin and Togo, DACCIWA observations increase low-level specific humidity and precipitable water, possibly due to changes in advection and vertical mixing. During daytime, differences between the two analyses are generally smaller at low levels. With regard to the forecasts, the impact of the additional observations is lost after a day or less. Moderate improvements occur in low-level wind and temperature but also in rainfall over the downstream Sahel, while impacts on OLR are ambiguous. The changes in precipitation appear to also affect high-level cloud cover and the tropical easterly jet. The overall rather small observation impact suggests that model and data assimilation deficits are the main limiting factors for better forecasts in West Africa. The new observations and physical understanding from DACCIWA can hopefully contribute to reducing these issues.

Description: The seasonal cycle of rainfall over the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) is dominated by the latitudinal migration and activity of the tropical rain belt (TRB). The TRB exhibits high interannual variability in the GHA and the reasons for the recent dry period in the Long Rains (March–May) are poorly understood. In addition, few studies have addressed the rainfall fluctuations during the Msimu Rains (Dec.–Mar.) in the southern GHA region. Interannual variations of the seasonal cycle of the TRB between 1981 and 2018 were analysed using two statistical indices. The Rainfall Cluster Index (RCI) describes the seasonal cycle as a succession of six characteristic rainfall patterns, while the Seasonal Location Index (SLI) captures the latitudinal location of the TRB. The SLI and RCI depict the full seasonal cycle of the TRB supporting interpretations of the interannual variations and trends. The Msimu Rains are dominated by two clusters with opposite rainfall characteristics between the Congo Basin and Tanzania. The associated anomalies in moisture flux and divergence indicate variations in the location of the TRB originating from an interplay between low-level air flows from the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and tropical and subtropical teleconnections. The peak period of the Long Rains shows a complex composition of five clusters, which is tightly connected to intraseasonal and interannual variability of latitudinal locations of the TRB. A persistent location of the TRB near the equator, evidenced in a frequent occurrence of a cluster related to an anomalously weak Walker circulation, is associated with wet conditions over East Africa. Dry Long Rains are associated with strong and frequent latitudinal variations of the TRB position with a late onset and intermittent rainfall. These results offer new opportunities to understand recent variability and trends in the GHA region.

Description: The El Niño phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is typically associated with below-average cool-season rainfall in southeastern Australia (SEA). However, there is also large case-to-case variability on monthly time-scales. Despite recent progress in understanding the links between remote climate drivers and this variability, the underlying dynamical processes are not fully understood. This reanalysis-based study aims to advance the dynamical understanding by quantifying the contribution of midlatitude weather systems to monthly precipitation anomalies over SEA during the austral winter–spring season. A k-means clustering reveals four rainfall anomaly patterns with above-average rainfall (Cluster 1), below-average rainfall (Cluster 2), above-average rainfall along the East Coast (Cluster 3) and along the South Coast (Cluster 4). Cluster 2 occurs most frequently during El Niño, which highlights the general suppression of SEA rainfall during these events. However, the remaining three clusters with local above-average rainfall are found in ∼52% of all El Niño months. Changes of weather system frequency determine the respective rainfall anomaly pattern. Results indicate significantly more cut-off lows and warm conveyor belts (WCBs) over SEA in El Niño Cluster 1 and significantly fewer in El Niño Cluster 2. In El Niño Cluster 3, enhanced blocking south of Australia favours cut-off lows leading to increased rainfall along the East Coast. Positive rainfall anomalies along the South Coast in El Niño Cluster 4 are associated with frontal rainfall due to an equatorward shift of the midlatitude storm track. Most of the rainfall is produced by WCBs and cut-off lows but the contributions strongly vary between the clusters. In all clusters, rainfall anomalies result from changes in rainfall frequency more than in rainfall intensity. Backward trajectories of WCB and cut-off low rainfall highlight the importance of moist air masses from the Coral Sea and the northwest coast of Australia during wet months.