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  • Other Sources  (6)
  • 551.6  (6)
  • 2020-2022  (6)
  • 1925-1929
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2021-09-27
    Description: A new global climate model setup using FESOM2.0 for the sea ice-ocean component and ECHAM6.3 for the atmosphere and land surface has been developed. Replacing FESOM1.4 by FESOM2.0 promises a higher efficiency of the new climate setup compared to its predecessor. The new setup allows for long-term climate integrations using a locally eddy-resolving ocean. Here it is evaluated in terms of (1) the mean state and long-term drift under preindustrial climate conditions, (2) the fidelity in simulating the historical warming, and (3) differences between coarse and eddy-resolving ocean configurations. The results show that the realism of the new climate setup is overall within the range of existing models. In terms of oceanic temperatures, the historical warming signal is of smaller amplitude than the model drift in case of a relatively short spin-up. However, it is argued that the strategy of “de-drifting” climate runs after the short spin-up, proposed by the HighResMIP protocol, allows one to isolate the warming signal. Moreover, the eddy-permitting/resolving ocean setup shows notable improvements regarding the simulation of oceanic surface temperatures, in particular in the Southern Ocean.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; FESOM ; ocean model ; climate model ; unstructured mesh ; Finite Volume
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: It is well established that Africa is particularly exposed to climate extremes including heat waves, droughts, and intense rainfall events. How exposed Africa is to the co-occurrence of these events is however virtually unknown. This study provides the first analysis of projected changes in the co-occurrence of five such compound climate extremes in Africa, under a low (RCP2.6) and high (RCP8.5) emissions scenario. These changes are combined with population projections for a low (SSP1) and high (SSP3) population growth scenario, in order to provide estimates of the number of people that may be exposed to such events at the end of the 21st century. We make use of an ensemble of regional climate projections from the Coordinated Output for Regional Evaluations (CORE) project embedded in the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. This ensemble comprises five different Earth System Model/Regional Climate Model (ESM/RCM) combinations with three different ESMs and two RCMs. We show that all five compound climate extremes will increase in frequency, with changes being greater under RCP8.5 than RCP2.6. Moreover, populations exposed to these changes are greater under RCP8.5/SSP3, than RCP2.6/SSP1, increasing by 47- and 12-fold, respectively, compared to the present-day. Regions of Africa that are particularly exposed are West Africa, Central-East Africa, and Northeast and Southeast Africa. Increased exposure is mainly driven by the interaction between climate and population growth, and the effect of population alone. This has important policy implications in relation to climate mitigation and adaptation.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; compound climate extremes ; population exposure ; regional climate change ; Africa ; CORDEX-CORE ; regional climate models
    Language: English
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2021-10-12
    Description: We present the new Atmospheric Raman Temperature and Humidity Sounder (ARTHUS). We demonstrate that ARTHUS measurements resolve (1) the strength of the inversion layer at the planetary boundary layer top, (2) elevated lids in the free troposphere during daytime and nighttime, and (3) turbulent fluctuations in water vapor and temperature, simultaneously, also during daytime. Very stable and reliable performance was demonstrably achieved during more than 2,500 hr of operations time experiencing a huge variety of weather conditions. ARTHUS provides temperature profiles with resolutions of 10–60 s and 7.5–100 m vertically in the lower free troposphere. During daytime, the statistical uncertainty of the water vapor mixing ratio is 〈2 % in the lower troposphere for resolutions of 5 min and 100 m. Temperature statistical uncertainty is 〈0.5 K even up to the middle troposphere. ARTHUS fulfills the stringent WMO breakthrough requirements on nowcasting and very short range forecasting.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Water-Vapor and Temperature Raman lidar ; Atmospheric Boundary Layer ; Thermodynamic Profiler ; Turbulence ; Temperature inversion layers
    Language: English
    Type: map
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2021-09-24
    Description: Data-driven approaches, most prominently deep learning, have become powerful tools for prediction in many domains. A natural question to ask is whether data-driven methods could also be used to predict global weather patterns days in advance. First studies show promise but the lack of a common data set and evaluation metrics make intercomparison between studies difficult. Here we present a benchmark data set for data-driven medium-range weather forecasting (specifically 3–5 days), a topic of high scientific interest for atmospheric and computer scientists alike. We provide data derived from the ERA5 archive that has been processed to facilitate the use in machine learning models. We propose simple and clear evaluation metrics which will enable a direct comparison between different methods. Further, we provide baseline scores from simple linear regression techniques, deep learning models, as well as purely physical forecasting models. The data set is publicly available at https://github.com/pangeo-data/WeatherBench and the companion code is reproducible with tutorials for getting started. We hope that this data set will accelerate research in data-driven weather forecasting.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; machine learning ; NWP ; artificial intelligence ; benchmark
    Language: English
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2021-09-29
    Description: Weather prediction and climate simulations need reliable parameterizations of turbulent fluxes in the stable surface layer. Especially in these conditions, the uncertainties of such parametrizations are still large. Most of them rely on the Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory (MOST), for which universal stability functions (SFs) represent important ingredients. The SFs are nonlinear, if so, a numerical iteration of the MOST equations is required. Moreover, presently available SFs are significantly different at large stability. To simplify the calculations, a non‐iterative parametrization of fluxes is derived and corresponding bulk transfer coefficients for momentum and heat for a package of five pairs of state‐of‐the‐art SFs are proposed. For the first time, a parametrization of the related transfer coefficients is derived in a universal framework for all package members. The new parametrizations provide a basis for a cheap systematic study of the impact of surface layer turbulent fluxes in weather prediction and climate models.
    Description: Plain Language Summary: Results of weather forecast, present‐day climate simulations, and future climate projections depend among other factors on the interaction between the atmosphere and the underlying sea‐ice, the land, and the ocean. In numerical weather prediction and climate models, some of these interactions are accounted for by transport coefficients describing the turbulent exchange of momentum, heat, and humidity. Currently used transfer coefficients have, however, large uncertainties in flow regimes being typical for cold nights and seasons, but especially in the polar regions. Furthermore, their determination is numerically complex. It is obvious that progress could be achieved when the transfer coefficients would be given by simple mathematical formula in frames of an economic computational scheme. Such a new universal, so‐called non‐iterative parametrization scheme is derived for a package of transfer coefficients. The derivation is based on the Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory, which is well accepted in the scientific community. The new scheme provides a basis for a cheap systematic study of the impact of near‐surface turbulence and of the related transports of momentum, heat, and humidity in models.
    Description: Key Points: A non‐iterative universal parameterization of surface layer turbulent fluxes is derived using Monin‐Obukhov similarity theory. Bulk transfer coefficients are given, which are based on five pairs of state‐of‐the‐art surface layer stability functions. The new parametrizations provide a basis for a cheap study of the impact of surface layer turbulent fluxes in numerical weather prediction and climate models.
    Description: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659
    Description: Russian Science Foundation (RSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006769
    Description: Helmholtz Climate Initiative REKLIM
    Description: Helmholtz Association
    Keywords: 551.6 ; transfer coefficients ; stable surface layer ; Arctic boundary layer ; turbulence closure ; subgridscale processes ; air‐surface interaction
    Type: map
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2021-10-25
    Description: The Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes will be exposed to hydroclimatic risk in next coming decades because the subtropical expansion. However, it is not clear when the anthropogenic signal will emerge from the internal climate variability. For this purpose, we investigate the time of emergence (ToE) of the hemispheric and regional shift of northern subtropical margins in the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble. For several indicators, the ToE of the poleward shift of Northern subtropical margin will not occur by the end of the 21st century, neither at regional nor at hemispheric scale. The exceptions are the Mediterranean/Middle East and, to a lesser degree, Western Pacific, where the ToE would occur earlier. According to our results, given the fundamental role played by internal variability, trends of Northern Hemisphere subtropical poleward shift that have been identified over last decades in reanalyses cannot be considered as robust signals of anthropogenic climate change.
    Keywords: 551.6 ; Northern Hemisphere subtropics ; poleward shift ; MPI-ESM Grand Ensemble ; forced response ; natural variability ; time of emergence
    Language: English
    Type: map
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