ALBERT

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: This review is intended to cover the principal developments that have occurred within the last six years in the paleomagnetic study of marine sediments. Recent work utilizing the reflecting-light microscope indicates that detrital high-temperature Fe-Ti oxides are probably responsible for most of the magnetic remanence in marine sediments. These minerals possess a spectrum of coercivities that makes it necessary to use alternating-field—demagnetization techniques to isolate stable components. It is possible to use the standard magnetic stratigraphy for the last 4 m.y. of earth history derived from terrestrial lavas. Using the ages of the magnetic boundaries from this time scale it is possible by extrapolation and interpolation to better determine the ages of the major events. The ages of these events in increasing age are Jaramillo, 0.87 to 0.92 m.y.; Olduvai, 1.71 to 1.86 m.y.; Kaena, 2.82 to 2.90 m.y.; Mammoth, 3.0 to 3.085 m.y.; Cochiti, 3.72 to 3.82 m.y.; Nunivak, 3.97 to 4.14 m.y.; ‘c’ event of the Gilbert series, 4.33 to 4.65 m.y. Through the use of long cores from the central Pacific and through correlation using fossil datums, it has been possible to extend the magnetic stratigraphy back to the upper middle Miocene to magnetic epoch 5. It is concluded that very short magnetic events are probably short-term excursions of the field and not true magnetic events. It is shown that the field of the earth averages to an axial-dipole field within a period of 27,000 years and that the field over the last two million years has acted as a geocentric axial dipole. The evidence shows that when reversals of the dipole occur, the values of the reversed inclination are not significantly different from the normal values. The use of magnetic stratigraphy in marine geology has opened up a new era in study of sedimentary processes and evolution of marine organisms.

Description: The eastern boundary of the Caroline plate, in the western equatorial Pacific, is composed of three structural provinces distinguished primarily on the basis of morphology. Each province shows evidence for convergence between the Caroline and Pacific plates though the structural style varies considerably between each province. Most notably, the sense of underthrusting appears to change along the boundary at about 3°N. To the south, at the Mussau System, Caroline lithosphere underthrusts beneath the Mussau Ridge (which is part of the Pacific plate), while to the north the Caroline plate appears to overthrust the Pacific plate. Recently collected seismic reflection profiles across each province documents the structural changes along and across strike of the Caroline-Pacific plate boundary. With this information, we estimate that a minimum of approximately 4 km of crustal shortening has occurred at about 5°N due to convergence of the two plates. Further to the south (about 2°N), simple gravity models suggest that about 10 km of Caroline lithosphere lies beneath the present-day Pacific plate. Using a previously determined pole of rotation describing Caroline-Pacific relative motion (Weissel and Anderson, 1978), we grossly estimate the duration of the convergence between these two plates at about one million years. It is suggested that variation in the convergence rate along the plate boundary provides the primary control on the variation of structural deformation observed between provinces; however, favorable thermal conditions are factors that are considered. If the eastern boundary of the Caroline plate is a region of incipient though perhaps transient subduction, as we postulate, then the geophysical and geological evidence presented can constrain models on the initiation of subduction.

Description: Three arrays of ocean bottom seismographs have been deployed to study the seismicity at the northern end of the Juan de Fuca ridge system off western Canada. Nearly 100 events were located with estimated accuracies generally better than ±10 km, all lying on or near the en echalon ridge-transform fault plate boundaries as defined in this area by the magnetic anomalies, the seafloor morphology and by other geophysical data. The depths of 12 events were determined to lie between 2 and 6 km below the top of the crust. The seismograms exhibit clear P and S wave arrivals along with phases that involve P to S and sometimes S to P conversion probably at the base of the sediments beneath the instruments. The event magnitudes have been estimated from signal duration using four calibration events that were well recorded by a land station. The magnitude estimates permit the determination of rough magnitude-frequency of occurrence relations over the magnitude range of 1 to 3 that are in surprisingly good agreement with the recurrence relations for the area at larger magnitudes from 75 years of land station data. The mean P wave velocity in the uppermost mantle from the earthquake data recorded by the sea floor arrays is 7.6 km s-1 and the mean Vp/Vs ratio is 1.71 or a Poisson's ratio of 0.24.