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  • Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment  (2)
  • 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.02. General circulation  (1)
  • 2020-2022
  • 2010-2014  (3)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Bayesian method ; Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment ; Run-up ; Modular structure ; Seismic sources ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Three general-circulation models (FRAM, OCCAM and POP) are used to investigate the dynamics of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) at the latitudes of the Drake Passage where the ACC is unbounded. In these general circulation models, bottom form stress balances the wind stress in the momentum budgets. In the vorticity budgets, the main balance is between wind curl and bottom pressure torque in FRAM, OCCAM and POP. Moreover, in the ACC belt all topographic features are regions of nonlinearity and bottom pressure torque variations, with the Drake Passage playing the largest role. Transient eddy Reynolds stresses (TERSs) play a different role in the three models. In the upper levels, TERSs accelerate the flow in the POP and FRAM models, but decelerate the flow in OCCAM. The behaviour of TERSs change throughout the whole water column in the ACC belt and Reynolds stresses have a dragging effect on the flow below the levels where the topography starts to obstruct the flow. The total volume transport in three models is very different. Additionally, the different spatial resolution, which results in a different level of eddy kinetic energy, has a significant influence on the transport.
    Description: Published
    Description: 833-860
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Eddies - Dynamical Budgets ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.02. General circulation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case.
    Description: Published
    Description: 159-174
    Description: 4.4. Scenari e mitigazione del rischio ambientale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Bayesian method ; Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment ; Modular structure ; 05. General::05.08. Risk::05.08.01. Environmental risk
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
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