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  • Articles  (93)
  • Elsevier  (76)
  • Wiley  (17)
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  • Geosciences  (93)
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  • Articles  (93)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2013-09-14
    Description: [1]  GLACE-CMIP5 is a multi-model experiment investigating the impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks in CMIP5 projections. We present here first GLACE-CMIP5 results based on five Earth System Models, focusing on impacts of projected changes in regional soil moisture dryness (mostly increases) on late 21 st -century climate. Projected soil moisture changes substantially impact climate in several regions in both boreal and austral summer. Strong and consistent effects are found on temperature, especially for extremes (about 1–1.5 K for mean temperature and 2–2.5 K for extreme daytime temperature). In the Northern Hemisphere, effects on mean and heavy precipitation are also found in most models, but the results are less consistent than for temperature. A direct scaling between soil moisture-induced changes in evaporative cooling and resulting changes in temperature mean and extremes is found in the simulations. In the Mediterranean region, the projected soil moisture changes affect about 25% of the projected changes in extreme temperature.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-03-10
    Description: Irrigation is not only vital for global food security, but also constitutes an anthropogenic land-use change, known to have strong effects on local hydrological and energy cycles. Using the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology's Earth System Model we show that related impacts are not confined regionally, but that possibly as much as 40% of the present-day precipitation in some of the arid regions in Eastern Africa are related to irrigation-based agriculture in Asia. Irrigation in South Asia also substantially influences the climate throughout Southeast Asia and China via the advection of water vapor and by altering the Asian monsoon. The simulated impact of irrigation on remote regions is sensitive to the magnitude of the irrigation-induced moisture flux. Therefore, it is likely that a future extension or decline of irrigated areas due to increasing food demand or declining fresh water resources will also affect precipitation and temperatures in remote regions.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2015-12-17
    Description: We examine how soil moisture variability and trends affect the simulation of temperature and precipitation extremes in six global climate models using the experimental protocol of the Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (GLACE-CMIP5). This protocol enables separate examinations of the influences of soil moisture variability and trends on the intensity, frequency and duration of climate extremes through to the end of the 21 s t century under a business-as-usual (RCP8.5) emission scenario. Removing soil moisture variability significantly reduces temperature extremes over most continental surfaces while wet precipitation extremes are enhanced in the tropics. Projected drying trends in soil moisture lead to increases in intensity, frequency, and duration of temperature extremes by the end of the 21 s t century. Wet precipitation extremes are decreased in the tropics with soil moisture trends in the simulations while dry extremes are enhanced in some regions, in particular the Mediterranean and Australia. However, the ensemble results mask considerable differences in the soil moisture trends simulated by the six climate models. We find that the large differences between the models in soil moisture trends, which are related to an unknown combination of differences in atmospheric forcing (precipitation, net radiation), flux partitioning at the land surface, and how soil moisture is parameterized, imply considerable uncertainty in future changes in climate extremes.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2015-02-12
    Description: The general circulation models used to simulate global climate typically feature resolution too coarse to reproduce many smaller scale processes, which are crucial to determining the regional responses to climate change. A novel approach to downscale climate change scenarios is presented which includes the interactions between the North Atlantic Ocean and the European shelves as well as their impact on the North Atlantic and European climate. The goal of this paper is to introduce the global ocean – regional atmosphere coupling concept and to show the potential benefits of this model system to simulate present day climate. A global ocean – sea ice – marine biogeochemistry model (MPIOM/HAMOCC) with regionally high horizontal resolution is coupled to an atmospheric regional model (REMO) and global terrestrial hydrology model (HD) via the OASIS coupler. Moreover, results obtained with ROM using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and ECHAM5/MPIOM CMIP3 historical simulations as boundary conditions are presented and discussed for the North Atlantic and North European region. The validation of all the model components, i.e. ocean, atmosphere, terrestrial hydrology and ocean biogeochemistry is performed and discussed. The careful and detailed validation of ROM provides evidence that the proposed model system improves the simulation of many aspects of the regional climate, remarkably the ocean, even though some biases persist in other model components, thus leaving potential for future improvement. We conclude that ROM is a powerful tool to estimate possible impacts of climate change on the regional scale. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2011-10-26
    Description: Global hydrological modeling is affected by three sources of uncertainty: (i) the choice of the global climate model (GCM) used to provide meteorological forcing data; (ii) the choice of future greenhouse gas concentration scenario; and (iii) the choice of the decade used to derive the bias correction parameters. We present a comparative analysis of these uncertainties and compare them to the inter-annual variability. The analysis focuses on discharge, integrated runoff and total precipitation over ten large catchments, representative of different climatic areas of the globe. Results are similar for all catchments, all hydrological variables and throughout the year with few exceptions. We find that the choice of different decadal periods over which to derive the bias correction parameters is a source of comparatively minor uncertainty, while other sources play larger and similarly significant roles. This is true for both the means and the extremes of the studied hydrological variables.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2011-01-15
    Description: Considering the complex spatial and vertical structure of the South Asian summer monsoon (SASM), the validation of a regional climate model (RCM) dealing with only a few surface variables is considered insufficient. Therefore, we have proposed an evaluation framework for the better assessment of the capability of an RCM in capturing the fundamental structure of SASM. This framework has been applied to the regional climate model REMO using ERA40 lateral boundary conditions for the period 1961–2000. The application of framework yielded satisfactory performance of REMO in capturing the lower, middle, and upper component of the SASM circulation. REMO has higher correlation between different SASM indices as compared to ERA40, showing its ability in capturing the dynamical link between these indices better than ERA40. We have employed different criteria for the assessment of the monsoon onset, and the movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) during the boreal summer and REMO has captured these phenomena reasonably well. The model has also shown the association of the meridional temperature gradient with the easterly shear of zonal winds. These results lead us to the conclusion that REMO is well suited for long-term climate change simulations to examine projected future changes in the complex SASM system. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0899-8418
    Electronic ISSN: 1097-0088
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2011-04-22
    Description: The present study examines the precipitation variability over the South Asian monsoon heat low region and associated teleconnections using high resolution (T106L31) climate simulations performed with the ECHAM5 model. It is found that an intensification of the heat low in response to enhanced precipitation/convection over northwestern India-Pakistan (NWIP) can induce large-scale circulation anomalies that resemble the northern summer circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) wave-like pattern extending well into the Asian monsoon region. Accordingly the wave-like response to rainfall increase over the heat low region is associated with anomalous ascent over northern China and descent over the South China Sea. Additionally, small but statistically significant lead-lag correlations between the heat low and precipitation over northern China further suggest that the detected signal pertains to the true features of the process. On the other hand, suppressed convection and rainfall over the heat low region do not reveal any significant large-scale circulation anomalies.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract The forthcoming Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) satellite mission will provide global measurements of the free surface of large rivers, providing new opportunities for remote sensing‐derived estimates of river discharge in gaged and ungaged basins. SWOT discharge algorithms have been developed and benchmarked using synthetic data but remain untested on real‐world swath altimetry observations. We present the first discharge estimates from AirSWOT, a SWOT‐like airborne Ka‐band radar, using 6 days of measurements over a 40‐km segment of the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. The three evaluated discharge algorithms estimated discharge with normalized root‐mean‐square errors of 10–31% when compared with in situ gage data but were sensitive to an initial estimate of mean annual discharge. Our results show that these discharge algorithms provide reliable discharge estimates on remotely sensed data at SWOT‐like spatial scales while highlighting the need for further algorithm sensitivity tests.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2013-05-18
    Description: [1]  To assess the robustness of projected changes of the hydrological cycle simulated by an Earth system model (ESM), it is fundamental to validate the ESM and to characterize its major deficits. As the hydrological cycle is closely coupled to the energy cycle, a common large-scale evaluation of these fundamental components of the Earth system is highly beneficial, even though this has been rarely done up to now. Consequently, the purpose of the present study is the combined evaluation of land surface water and energy fluxes from the newest ESM version of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-ESM), which was used to produce an ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations. With regard to energy fluxes, we especially make use of recent satellite data sets. Additionally, MPI-ESM results are compared with CMIP3 results from the predecessor of MPI-ESM, ECHAM5/MPIOM, as well as to results from the atmosphere/land part of MPI-ESM (ECHAM6/JSBACH) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST). Analyses focus on regions where notable differences occur between the two ESM versions as well as between the fully coupled and the uncoupled SST-driven simulations. In general, our results show a considerable improvement of MPI-ESM in simulating surface shortwave radiation fluxes. The precipitation of the fully coupled simulations notably differs from those of the SST-forced simulations over a few river catchments. Over the Amazon catchment, the coupling to the ocean leads to a large negative precipitation bias, while for the Ganges/Brahmaputra, the coupling significantly improves the simulated precipitation.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2017-12-21
    Description: We evaluate the impact of a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme on seasonal hindcast skill of 2-meter temperatures over Europe obtained with the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). Assimilation experiments from 1981 to 2010 and 10-member seasonal hindcasts initialized on 1 May each year are performed with MPI-ESM in two soil configurations, one using a bucket scheme and one a new 5-layer soil-hydrology scheme. We find the seasonal hindcast skill for European summer temperatures to improve with the 5-layer scheme compared to the bucket scheme, and investigate possible causes for these improvements. First, improved indirect soil moisture assimilation allows for enhanced soil moisture-temperature feedbacks in the hindcasts. Additionally, this leads to improved prediction of anomalies in the 500 hPa geopotential height surface, reflecting more realistic atmospheric circulation patterns over Europe.
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    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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