ALBERT

Description: The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

Description: The marine picoeukaryote Bathycoccus prasinos has been considered a cosmopolitan alga, although recent studies indicate two ecotypes exist, Clade BI (B. prasinos) and Clade BII. Viruses that infect Bathycoccus Clade BI are known (BpVs), but not that infect BII. We isolated three dsDNA prasinoviruses from the Sargasso Sea against Clade BII isolate RCC716. The BII-Vs do not infect BI, and two (BII-V2 and BII-V3) have larger genomes (~210 kb) than BI-Viruses and BII-V1. BII-Vs share ~90% of their proteins, and between 65% to 83% of their proteins with sequenced BpVs. Phylogenomic reconstructions and PolB analyses establish close-relatedness of BII-V2 and BII-V3, yet BII-V2 has 10-fold higher infectivity and induces greater mortality on host isolate RCC716. BII-V1 is more distant, has a shorter latent period, and infects both available BII isolates, RCC716 and RCC715, while BII-V2 and BII-V3 do not exhibit productive infection of the latter in our experiments. Global metagenome analyses show Clade BI and BII algal relative abundances correlate positively with their respective viruses. The distributions delineate BI/BpVs as occupying lower temperature mesotrophic and coastal systems, whereas BII/BII-Vs occupy warmer temperature, higher salinity ecosystems. Accordingly, with molecular diagnostic support, we name Clade BII Bathycoccus calidus sp. nov. and propose that molecular diversity within this new species likely connects to the differentiated host-virus dynamics observed in our time course experiments. Overall, the tightly linked biogeography of Bathycoccus host and virus clades observed herein supports species-level host specificity, with strain-level variations in infection parameters.

Description: The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2,3,4,5,6,7,8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Description: Many studies show the sensitivity of our environment to manmade changes, especially the anthropogenic impact on atmospheric and hydrological processes. The effect on Solid Earth processes such as subsidence is less straightforward. Subsidence is usually slow and relates to the interplay of complex hydro-mechanical processes, thus making relations to atmospheric changes difficult to observe. In the Dead Sea (DS) region, however, climatic forcing is strong and over-use of fresh water is massive. An observation period of 3 years was thus sufficient to link the high evaporation (97 cm/year) and the subsequent drop of the Dead Sea lake level (− 110 cm/year), with high subsidence rates of the Earth’s surface (− 15 cm/year). Applying innovative Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) techniques, we are able to resolve this subsidence of the “Solid Earth” even on a monthly basis and show that it behaves synchronous to atmospheric and hydrological changes with a time lag of two months. We show that the amplitude and fluctuation period of ground deformation is related to poro-elastic hydro-mechanical soil response to lake level changes. This provides, to our knowledge, a first direct link between shore subsidence, lake-level drop and evaporation.

Description: Anaerobic oxidation of ammonium (anammox) in oxygen minimum zones (OMZs) is a major pathway of oceanic nitrogen loss. Ammonium released from sinking particles has been suggested to fuel this process. During cruises to the Peruvian OMZ in April–June 2017 we found that anammox rates are strongly correlated with the volume of small particles (128–512 µm), even though anammox bacteria were not directly associated with particles. This suggests that the relationship between anammox rates and particles is related to the ammonium released from particles by remineralization. To investigate this, ammonium release from particles was modelled and theoretical encounters of free-living anammox bacteria with ammonium in the particle boundary layer were calculated. These results indicated that small sinking particles could be responsible for ~75% of ammonium release in anoxic waters and that free-living anammox bacteria frequently encounter ammonium in the vicinity of smaller particles. This indicates a so far underestimated role of abundant, slow-sinking small particles in controlling oceanic nutrient budgets, and furthermore implies that observations of the volume of small particles could be used to estimate N-loss across large areas.

Description: The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt changes arise from slow changes in one component of the Earth system that eventually pass a critical threshold, or tipping point, after which impacts cascade through coupled climate–ecological–social systems. The chance of detecting abrupt changes and tipping points increases with the length of observations. The geological record provides the only long-term information we have on the conditions and processes that can drive physical, ecological and social systems into new states or organizational structures that may be irreversible within human time frames. Here, we use well-documented abrupt changes of the past 30 kyr to illustrate how their impacts cascade through the Earth system. We review useful indicators of upcoming abrupt changes, or early warning signals, and provide a perspective on the contributions of palaeoclimate science to the understanding of abrupt changes in the Earth system.

Description: Bacteriophages (phages) are ubiquitous elements in nature, but their ecology and role in animals remains little understood. Sponges represent the oldest known extant animal-microbe symbiosis and are associated with dense and diverse microbial consortia. Here we investigate the tripartite interaction between phages, bacterial symbionts, and the sponge host. We combined imaging and bioinformatics to tackle important questions on who the phage hosts are and what the replication mode and spatial distribution within the animal is. This approach led to the discovery of distinct phage-microbe infection networks in sponge versus seawater microbiomes. A new correlative in situ imaging approach (‘PhageFISH-CLEM‘) localised phages within bacterial symbiont cells, but also within phagocytotically active sponge cells. We postulate that the phagocytosis of free virions by sponge cells modulates phage-bacteria ratios and ultimately controls infection dynamics. Prediction of phage replication strategies indicated a distinct pattern, where lysogeny dominates the sponge microbiome, likely fostered by sponge host-mediated virion clearance, while lysis dominates in seawater. Collectively, this work provides new insights into phage ecology within sponges, highlighting the importance of tripartite animal-phage-bacterium interplay in holobiont functioning. We anticipate that our imaging approach will be instrumental to further understanding of viral distribution and cellular association in animal hosts.

Description: Approximately half of the freshwater discharged from the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets enters the ocean subsurface as a result of basal ice melt, or runoff draining via the grounding line of a deep ice shelf or marine-terminating glacier. Around Antarctica and parts of northern Greenland, this freshwater then experiences prolonged residence times in large cavities beneath floating ice tongues. Due to the inaccessibility of these cavities, it is unclear how they moderate the freshwater associated supply of nutrients such as iron (Fe) to the ocean. Here, we show that subglacial dissolved Fe export from Nioghalvfjerdsbrae (the ‘79°N Glacier’) is decoupled from particulate inputs including freshwater Fe supply, likely due to the prolonged ~162-day residence time of Atlantic water beneath Greenland’s largest floating ice-tongue. Our findings indicate that the overturning rate and particle-dissolved phase exchanges in ice cavities exert a dominant control on subglacial nutrient supply to shelf regions.

Description: The magmatic character of early subduction zone and arc development is unlike mature systems. Low-Ti-K tholeiitic basalts and boninites dominate the early Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) system. Basalts recovered from the Amami Sankaku Basin (ASB), underlying and located west of the IBM’s oldest remnant arc, erupted at ~49 Ma. This was 3 million years after subduction inception (51-52 Ma) represented by forearc basalt (FAB), at the tipping point between FAB-boninite and typical arc magmatism. We show ASB basalts are low-Ti-K, aluminous spinel-bearing tholeiites, distinct compared to mid-ocean ridge (MOR), backarc basin, island arc or ocean island basalts. Their upper mantle source was hot, reduced, refractory peridotite, indicating prior melt extraction. ASB basalts transferred rapidly from pressures (~0.7-2 GPa) at the plagioclase-spinel peridotite facies boundary to the surface. Vestiges of a polybaric-polythermal mineralogy are preserved in this basalt, and were not obliterated during persistent recharge-mix-tap-fractionate regimes typical of MOR or mature arcs.

Description: Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections — the Pacific–North American and Pacific–South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections. Key points Under anthropogenic warming, the majority of climate models project faster background warming in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared with the west. The observed equatorial Pacific surface warming pattern since 1980, though opposite to the projected faster warming in the equatorial eastern Pacific, is within the inter-model range in terms of sea surface temperature (SST) gradients and is subject to influence from internal variability. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) rainfall responses in the equatorial Pacific are projected to intensify and shift eastward, leading to an eastward intensification of extratropical teleconnections. ENSO SST variability and extreme ENSO events are projected to increase under greenhouse warming, with a stronger inter-model consensus in CMIP6 compared with CMIP5. However, the time of emergence for ENSO SST variability is later than that for ENSO rainfall variability, opposite to that for mean SST versus mean rainfall. Future ENSO change is likely influenced by past variability, such that quantification of future ENSO in the only realization of the real world is challenging. Although there is no definitive relationship of ENSO variability with the mean zonal SST gradient or seasonal cycle, palaeoclimate records suggest a causal connection between vertical temperature stratification and ENSO strength, and a greater ENSO strength since the 1950s than in past centuries, supporting an emerging increase in ENSO variability under greenhouse warming.