ALBERT

Description: 〈p〉Distinguishing between high- and low-performing individuals and groups is of prime importance in a wide range of high-stakes contexts. While this is straightforward when accurate records of past performance exist, these records are unavailable in most real-world contexts. Focusing on the class of binary decision problems, we use a combined theoretical and empirical approach to develop and test a approach to this important problem. First, we use a general mathematical argument and numerical simulations to show that the similarity of an individual’s decisions to others is a powerful predictor of that individual’s decision accuracy. Second, testing this prediction with several large datasets on breast and skin cancer diagnostics, geopolitical forecasting, and a general knowledge task, we find that decision similarity robustly permits the identification of high-performing individuals and groups. Our findings offer a simple, yet broadly applicable, heuristic for improving real-world decision-making systems.〈/p〉

Description: In order to identify the sources of the observed diffuse high-energy neutrino flux, it is crucial to discover their electromagnetic counterparts. To increase the sensitivity of detecting counterparts of transient or variable sources by telescopes with a limited field of view, IceCube began releasing alerts for single high-energy (Eν 〉  60 TeV) neutrino detections with sky localisation regions of order 1° radius in 2016. We used Pan-STARRS1 to follow-up five of these alerts during 2016–2017 to search for any optical transients that may be related to the neutrinos. Typically 10–20 faint (miP1 ≲ 22.5 mag) extragalactic transients are found within the Pan-STARRS1 footprints and are generally consistent with being unrelated field supernovae (SNe) and AGN. We looked for unusual properties of the detected transients, such as temporal coincidence of explosion epoch with the IceCube timestamp, or other peculiar light curve and physical properties. We found only one transient that had properties worthy of a specific follow-up. In the Pan-STARRS1 imaging for IceCube-160427A (probability to be of astrophysical origin of ∼50%), we found a SN PS16cgx, located at 10.0′ from the nominal IceCube direction. Spectroscopic observations of PS16cgx showed that it was an H-poor SN at redshift z = 0.2895 ± 0.0001. The spectra and light curve resemble some high-energy Type Ic SNe, raising the possibility of a jet driven SN with an explosion epoch temporally coincident with the neutrino detection. However, distinguishing Type Ia and Type Ic SNe at this redshift is notoriously difficult. Based on all available data we conclude that the transient is more likely to be a Type Ia with relatively weak Si II absorption and a fairly normal rest-frame r-band light curve. If, as predicted, there is no high-energy neutrino emission from Type Ia SNe, then PS16cgx must be a random coincidence, and unrelated to the IceCube-160427A. We find no other plausible optical transient for any of the five IceCube events observed down to a 5σ limiting magnitude of miP1 ≈ 22 mag, between 1 day and 25 days after detection.

Description: Eclipsing post-common-envelope binaries are highly important for resolving the poorly understood, very short-lived common-envelope phase of stellar evolution. Most hot subdwarfs (sdO/Bs) are the bare helium-burning cores of red giants that have lost almost all of their hydrogen envelope. This mass loss is often triggered by common-envelope interactions with close stellar or even substellar companions. Cool companions to hot subdwarf stars such as late-type stars and brown dwarfs are detectable from characteristic light-curve variations – reflection effects and often eclipses. In the recently published catalog of eclipsing binaries in the Galactic Bulge and in the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) survey, we discovered 125 new eclipsing systems showing a reflection effect seen by visual inspection of the light curves and using a machine-learning algorithm, in addition to the 36 systems previously discovered by the Optical Gravitational Lesing Experiment (OGLE) team. The Eclipsing Reflection Effect Binaries from Optical Surveys (EREBOS) project aims at analyzing all newly discovered eclipsing binaries of the HW Vir type (hot subdwarf + close, cool companion) based on a spectroscopic and photometric follow up to derive the mass distribution of the companions, constrain the fraction of substellar companions, and determine the minimum mass needed to strip off the red-giant envelope. To constrain the nature of the primary we derived the absolute magnitude and the reduced proper motion of all our targets with the help of the parallaxes and proper motions measured by the Gaia mission and compared those to the Gaia white-dwarf candidate catalog. It was possible to derive the nature of a subset of our targets, for which observed spectra are available, by measuring the atmospheric parameter of the primary, confirming that less than 10% of our systems are not sdO/Bs with cool companions but are white dwarfs or central stars of planetary nebula. This large sample of eclipsing hot subdwarfs with cool companions allowed us to derive a significant period distribution for hot subdwarfs with cool companions for the first time showing that the period distribution is much broader than previously thought and is ideally suited to finding the lowest-mass companions to hot subdwarf stars. The comparison with related binary populations shows that the period distribution of HW Vir systems is very similar to WD+dM systems and central stars of planetary nebula with cool companions. In the future, several new photometric surveys will be carried out, which will further increase the sample of this project, providing the potential to test many aspects of common-envelope theory and binary evolution.

Description: Context. Only several doubly eclipsing quadruple stellar systems are known to date, and no dedicated effort to characterize population properties of these interesting objects has yet been made. Aims. Our first goal was to increase number of known doubly eclipsing systems such that the resulting dataset would allow us to study this category of objects via statistical means. In order to minimize biases, we used long-lasting, homogeneous, and well-documented photometric surveys. Second, a common problem of basically all known doubly eclipsing systems is the lack of proof that they constitute gravitationally bound quadruple system in the 2+2 architecture (as opposed to two unrelated binaries that are projected onto the same location in the sky by chance). When possible, we thus sought evidence for the relative motion of the two binaries. In that case, we tried to determine the relevant orbital periods and other parameters. Methods. We analysed photometric data for eclipsing binaries provided by the OGLE survey and we focused on the LMC fields. We found a large number of new doubly eclipsing systems (our discoveries are three times more numerous than the previously known cases in this dataset). In order to prove relative motion of the binaries about a common centre of mass, we made use of the fact that OGLE photometry covers several years. With a typical orbital period of days for the observed binaries, we sought eclipse time variations (ETVs) on the timescale comparable to a decade (this is the same method used for an archetype of the doubly eclipsing system, namely V994 Her). In the cases where we were able to detect the ETV period, the difference between the inner and outer periods in the quadruple system is large enough. This allows us to interpret ETVs primarily as the light-time effect, thus providing an interesting constraint on masses of the binaries. Results. In addition to significantly enlarging the database of known doubly eclipsing systems, we performed a thorough analysis of 72 cases. ETVs for 28 of them (39% of the studied cases) showed evidence of relative motion. Among these individual systems, we note OGLE BLG-ECL-145467, by far the most interesting case; it is bright (12.6 mag in I filter), consists of two detached binaries with periods of ≃3.3 d and ≃4.9 d (making it a candidate for a 3:2 resonant system) revolving about each other in only ≃1538 d. Distribution of the orbital period ratio PA/PB of binaries in 2+2 quadruples shows statistically significant excess at ≃1 and ≃1.5. The former is likely a natural statistical preference in weakly interacting systems with periods within the same range. The latter is thought to be evidence of a capture in the 3:2 mean motion resonance of the two binaries. This sets important constraints on evolutionary channels in these systems. Conclusions. The total number of doubly eclipsing systems increased to 146, more than 90% of which are at low declinations on the southern sky. This motivates us to use southern hemisphere facilities to further characterize these systems, and to seek possibilities to complement this dataset with northern sky systems.