ALBERT

Description: While the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. To address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two Earth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. We derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. Without fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (±4% SD) under low emissions and 17% (±11% SD) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 °C of warming. Projected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. Fishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. Considerable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. Uncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and Earth system models were similar. Ensemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. Our results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. Next steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.

Description: Based on hierarchical multi‐species models applied to avian mist‐netting data from six sites along a montane elevation gradient in a large protected area, we show advancement of avian breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) and increase in productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) over 25 years with variable but declining snowfall and increasing spring temperatures. Breeding phenology depended on elevation and tracked climatic conditions. Productivity was higher in relatively warm springs, while productivity–elevation responses were variable among species; species with higher productivity at higher elevations tended to be species with recent range retractions. Abstract Climate variation has been linked to historical and predicted future distributions and dynamics of wildlife populations. However, demographic mechanisms underlying these changes remain poorly understood. Here, we assessed variation and trends in climate (annual snowfall and spring temperature anomalies) and avian demographic variables from mist‐netting data (breeding phenology and productivity) at six sites along an elevation gradient spanning the montane zone of Yosemite National Park between 1993 and 2017. We implemented multi‐species hierarchical models to relate demographic responses to elevation and climate covariates. Annual variation in climate and avian demographic variables was high. Snowfall declined (10 mm/year at the highest site, 2 mm at the lowest site), while spring temperature increased (0.045°C/year) over the study period. Breeding phenology (mean first capture date of juvenile birds) advanced by 0.2 day/year (5 days); and productivity (probability of capturing a juvenile bird) increased by 0.8%/year. Breeding phenology was 12 days earlier at the lowest compared to highest site, 18 days earlier in years with lowest compared to highest snowfall anomalies, and 6 d earlier in relatively warm springs (after controlling for snowfall effects). Productivity was positively related to elevation. However, elevation–productivity responses varied among species; species with higher productivity at higher compared to lower elevations tended to be species with documented range retractions during the past century. Productivity tended to be negatively related to snowfall and was positively related to spring temperature. Overall, our results suggest that birds have tracked the variable climatic conditions in this system and have benefited from a trend toward warmer, drier springs. However, we caution that continued warming and multi‐year drought or extreme weather years may alter these relationships in the future. Multi‐species demographic modeling, such as implemented here, can provide an important tool for guiding conservation of species assemblages under global change.

Description: The flatwormMacrostomum lignanofeatures a duo-gland adhesive system that allows it to repeatedly attach to and release from substrates in seawater within a minute. However, little is known about the molecules involved in this temporary adhesion. In this study, we show that the attachment ofM. lignanorelies on the secretion of two large adhesive proteins,M. lignanoadhesion protein 1 (Mlig-ap1) and Mlig-ap2. We revealed that both proteins are expressed in the adhesive gland cells and that their distribution within the adhesive footprints was spatially restricted. RNA interference knockdown experiments demonstrated the essential function of these two proteins in flatworm adhesion. Negatively charged modified sugars in the surrounding water inhibited flatworm attachment, while positively charged molecules impeded detachment. In addition, we found thatM. lignanocould not adhere to strongly hydrated surfaces. We propose an attachment–release model where Mlig-ap2 attaches to the substrate and Mlig-ap1 exhibits a cohesive function. A small negatively charged molecule is secreted that interferes with Mlig-ap1, inducing detachment. These findings are of relevance for fundamental adhesion science and efforts to mitigate biofouling. Further, this model of flatworm temporary adhesion may serve as the starting point for the development of synthetic reversible adhesion systems for medicinal and industrial applications.

Description: We modeled the impacts of climate change on the timing of phytoplankton blooms and spawning of two classes of fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed features and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to environmental change. Phytoplankton blooms occurred 16 days earlier compared to baseline conditions. The phenology of geographic spawners changed twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing them to often spawn before the bloom. Trophic mismatches were less widespread for environmental spawners, indicating this behavioral mode increased resiliency to phenological mismatches. Mismatches experienced by geographic spawners could lead to declines in survival and recruitment. Abstract Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature‐linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high‐emissions, climate‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes 〉40°N. The temperature‐linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across 〉85% of this region. “Extreme events,” defined here as seasonal mismatches 〉30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10‐fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

Description: Abstract The Coachella Valley in the northern Salton Trough is known to produce destructive earthquakes, making it a high seismic hazard area. Knowledge of the seismic velocity structure and geometry of the sedimentary basins and fault zones is required to improve earthquake hazard estimates in this region. We simultaneously inverted first P wave travel times from the Southern California Seismic Network (39,998 local earthquakes) and explosions (251 land/sea shots) from the 2011 Salton Seismic Imaging Project to obtain a 3‐D seismic velocity model. Earthquakes with focal depths ≤10 km were selected to focus on the upper crustal structure. Strong lateral velocity contrasts in the top ~3 km correlate well with the surface geology, including the low‐velocity (〈5 km/s) sedimentary basin and the high‐velocity crystalline basement rocks outside the valley. Sediment thickness is ~4 km in the southeastern valley near the Salton Sea and decreases to 〈2 km at the northwestern end of the valley. Eastward thickening of sediments toward the San Andreas fault within the valley defines Coachella Valley basin asymmetry. In the Peninsular Ranges, zones of relatively high seismic velocities (~6.4 km/s) between 2‐ and 4‐km depth may be related to Late Cretaceous mylonite rocks or older inherited basement structures. Other high‐velocity domains exist in the model down to 9‐km depth and help define crustal heterogeneity. We identify a potential fault zone in Lost Horse Valley unassociated with mapped faults in Southern California from the combined interpretation of surface geology, seismicity, and lateral velocity changes in the model.

Description: We modeled the impacts of climate change on the timing of phytoplankton blooms and spawning of two classes of fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed features and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to environmental change. Phytoplankton blooms occurred 16 days earlier compared to baseline conditions. The phenology of geographic spawners changed twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing them to often spawn before the bloom. Trophic mismatches were less widespread for environmental spawners, indicating this behavioral mode increased resiliency to phenological mismatches. Mismatches experienced by geographic spawners could lead to declines in survival and recruitment. Abstract Substantial interannual variability in marine fish recruitment (i.e., the number of young fish entering a fishery each year) has been hypothesized to be related to whether the timing of fish spawning matches that of seasonal plankton blooms. Environmental processes that control the phenology of blooms, such as stratification, may differ from those that influence fish spawning, such as temperature‐linked reproductive maturation. These different controlling mechanisms could cause the timing of these events to diverge under climate change with negative consequences for fisheries. We use an earth system model to examine the impact of a high‐emissions, climate‐warming scenario (RCP8.5) on the future spawning time of two classes of temperate, epipelagic fishes: “geographic spawners” whose spawning grounds are defined by fixed geographic features (e.g., rivers, estuaries, reefs) and “environmental spawners” whose spawning grounds move responding to variations in environmental properties, such as temperature. By the century's end, our results indicate that projections of increased stratification cause spring and summer phytoplankton blooms to start 16 days earlier on average (±0.05 days SE) at latitudes 〉40°N. The temperature‐linked phenology of geographic spawners changes at a rate twice as fast as phytoplankton, causing these fishes to spawn before the bloom starts across 〉85% of this region. “Extreme events,” defined here as seasonal mismatches 〉30 days that could lead to fish recruitment failure, increase 10‐fold for geographic spawners in many areas under the RCP8.5 scenario. Mismatches between environmental spawners and phytoplankton were smaller and less widespread, although sizable mismatches still emerged in some regions. This indicates that range shifts undertaken by environmental spawners may increase the resiliency of fishes to climate change impacts associated with phenological mismatches, potentially buffering against declines in larval fish survival, recruitment, and fisheries. Our model results are supported by empirical evidence from ecosystems with multidecadal observations of both fish and phytoplankton phenology.

Description: Abstract Exchanges between coastal and oceanic waters shape both coastal ecosystem processes and signatures that they impart on global biogeochemical cycles. The time‐scales of these exchanges, however, are poorly represented in current‐generation, coarse‐grid climate models. Here we provide a novel global perspective on coastal residence time (CRT) and its spatio‐temporal variability using a new age tracer implemented in global ocean models. Simulated CRTs range widely from several days in narrow boundary currents to multiple years on broader shelves and in semi‐enclosed seas, in agreement with available observations. Overall, CRT is better characterized in high‐resolution models (1/8° and 1/4°) than the coarser (1° and 1/2°) versions. This is in large part because coastal and open ocean grid cells are more directly connected in coarse models, prone to erroneous coastal flushing and an underestimated CRT. Additionally, we find that geometric enclosure of a coastal system places an important constraint on CRT.

Description: Abstract Sprites are composed of numerous streamers which exhibit transient luminosities in the upper middle atmosphere above thunderclouds after initiation by an intense positive lightning discharge, often followed by lightning continuing current. Here we report the discovery of a sprite which exhibits its main luminosity near the stratopause. This novel phenomenon is attributed to a sudden surge of intracloud lightning leader activity, based on a rigorous analysis of our observed electromagnetic waveforms. Each lightning leader discharge causes an additional electric field that generates a small amount of electromagnetic energy near the stratopause and thereby contributes to the overall sprite luminosity morphology. The observation of sprite streamers near the stratopause is important because it is relevant for the ongoing assessment of the lightning impact on N2 and CO2 with emissions from the near to far infrared part of the spectrum.