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  • American Geophysical Union  (2)
  • American Physical Society
  • 2015-2019  (2)
  • 2018  (2)
  • 1
    Publication Date: 2018-02-10
    Description: Transient climate response (TCR), transient response at 140 years (T140), and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) indices are intended as benchmarks for comparing the magnitude of climate response projected by climate models. It is generally assumed that TCR or T140 would explain more variability between models than ECS for temperature change over the 21st century, since this timescale is the realm of transient climate change. Here we find that TCR explains more variability across Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 than ECS for global temperature change since preindustrial, for 50 or 100 year global trends up to the present, and for projected change under representative concentration pathways in regions of delayed warming such as the Southern Ocean. However, unexpectedly, we find that ECS correlates higher than TCR for projected change from the present in the global mean and in most regions. This higher correlation does not relate to aerosol forcing, and the physical cause requires further investigation. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2018-12-15
    Description: A cloud feedback diagnostic package is implemented in the Australian Community Climate and Earth‐System Simulator General Circulation Model, based on the methodology of “cloud radiative kernels.” Using separate increased sea surface temperature and CO2 experiments, both the “rapid response” cloud contribution to forcing and temperature‐mediated cloud feedbacks are analyzed. Under increased temperature and CO2 changes, temperature‐mediated cloud radiative feedback dominates over the rapid response in the final radiative response. Cloud feedback is positive in both long and short wave, with short wave dominating global values. Contributing most to this are low to mid‐level clouds, of medium‐to‐high optical thickness. As a means of illustration of the methodology, a number of key parameters related to clouds, precipitation, and convection that are typically used in “tuning” in the model are modified. These changes result in substantial impacts on the model's current climate, but only modest changes to rapid response and feedbacks occur globally, regionally, and as a function of cloud optical thickness and height. This limited set of experiments shows that cloud adjustments and feedbacks in this model are robust under these changes, lending confidence that both model climate change projections and the conclusions of attribution studies are not overly sensitive to such parameterization tuning. Of course, a considerably larger set of experiments would be needed to demonstrate that feedbacks and rapid response are robust under the wider set of tuning adjustments commonly undertaken.
    Print ISSN: 2169-897X
    Electronic ISSN: 2169-8996
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
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