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  • Springer  (3)
  • SpringerOpen  (1)
  • 2015-2019  (4)
  • 2017  (4)
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  • 2015-2019  (4)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-10-26
    Print ISSN: 1616-7341
    Electronic ISSN: 1616-7228
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Low prediction skill in the tropical Pacific is a common problem in decadal prediction systems, especially for lead years 2–5 which, in many systems, is lower than in uninitialized experiments. On the other hand, the tropical Pacific is of almost worldwide climate relevance through its teleconnections with other tropical and extratropical regions and also of importance for global mean temperature. Understanding the causes of the reduced prediction skill is thus of major interest for decadal climate predictions. We look into the problem of reduced prediction skill by analyzing the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM) decadal hindcasts for the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project and performing a sensitivity experiment in which hindcasts are initialized from a model run forced only by surface wind stress. In both systems, sea surface temperature variability in the tropical Pacific is successfully initialized, but most skill is lost at lead years 2–5. Utilizing the sensitivity experiment enables us to pin down the reason for the reduced prediction skill in MPI-ESM to errors in wind stress used for the initialization. A spurious trend in the wind stress forcing displaces the equatorial thermocline in MPI-ESM unrealistically. When the climate model is then switched into its forecast mode, the recovery process triggers artificial El Niño and La Niña events at the surface. Our results demonstrate the importance of realistic wind stress products for the initialization of decadal predictions
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: For mid-latitude Rossby waves (RWs) in the atmosphere, the expression for the energy flux for use in a model diagnosis, and without relying on a Fourier analysis or a ray theory, has previously been derived using quasi-geostrophic equations and is singular at the equator. By investigating the analytical solution of both equatorial and mid-latitude waves, the authors derive an exact universal expression for the energy flux which is able to indicate the direction of the group velocity at all latitudes for linear shallow water waves. This is achieved by introducing a streamfunction as given by the inversion equation of Ertel’s potential vorticity, a novel aspect for considering the energy flux. For ease of diagnosis from a model, an approximate version of the universal expression is explored and illustrated for a forced/dissipative equatorial basin mode simulated by a single-layer oceanic model that includes both mid-latitude RWs and equatorial waves. Equatorial Kelvin Waves (KWs) propagate eastward along the equator, are partially redirected poleward as coastal KWs at the eastern boundary of the basin, and then shed mid-latitude RWs that propagate westward into the basin interior. The connection of the equatorial and coastal waveguides has been successfully illustrated by the approximate expression of the group-velocity-based energy flux of the present study. This will allow for tropical-extratropical interactions in oceanic and atmospheric model outputs to be diagnosed in terms of an energy cycle in a future study.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2020-02-06
    Description: Ocean circulation models do not generally exhibit equatorial deep jets (EDJs), even though EDJs are a recognised feature of the observed ocean circulation along the equator and they are thought to be important for tracer transport along the equator and even equatorial climate. EDJs are nevertheless found in nonlinear primitive equation models with idealised box geometry. Here we analyse several such model runs. We note that the variability of the zonal velocity in the model is dominated by the gravest linear equatorial basin mode for a wide range of baroclinic vertical normal modes and that the EDJs in the model are dominated by energy contained in vertical modes between 10 and 20. The emergence of the EDJs is shown to involve the linear superposition of several such neighbouring basin modes. Furthermore, the phase of these basin modes is set at the start of the model run and, in the case of the reference experiment, the same basin modes can be found in a companion experiment in which the amplitude of the forcing has been reduced by a factor of 1000. We also argue that following the spin-up, energy must be transferred between different vertical modes. This is because the model simulations are dominated by downward phase propagation following the spin-up whereas our reconstructions imply episodes of upward and downward propagation. The transfer of energy between the vertical modes is associated with a decadal modulation of the EDJs.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: text
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