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  • Wiley  (2)
  • 2015-2019  (2)
  • 2010-2014
  • 2016  (2)
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  • 2015-2019  (2)
  • 2010-2014
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2016-01-28
    Description: Sea level rise is perceived as a major threat to the densely populated coast of the Bay of Bengal. Addressing future rise requires understanding the present-day sea level budget. Using a novel method and data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite, we partition altimetric sea level rise (6.1 mm/a over 2002–2014) into mass and steric components. We find that current mass trends in the Bay of Bengal are slightly above global mean, while steric trends appear much larger: 2.2–3.1 mm/a if we disregard a residual required to close the budget, and 4.3–4.6 mm/a if, as an upper bound, we attribute this residual entirely to steric expansion. Our method differs from published approaches in that it explains altimetry and GRACE data in a least squares inversion, while mass anomalies are parameterized through gravitationally self-consistent fingerprints, and steric expansion through EOFs. We validate our estimates by comparing to Argo and modeling for the Indian Ocean, and by comparing total water storage change (TWSC) for the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins to the conventional GRACE approach. We find good agreement for TWSC, and reasonable agreement for steric heights, depending on the ocean region and Argo product. We ascribe differences to weaknesses of the Argo data, but we also find the inversion to be to some extent sensitive with respect to the EOFs. Finally, combining our estimates with CMIP5-simulations, we estimate that Bay of Bengal absolute sea level may rise for additional 37 cm under the RCP4.5 scenario and 40 cm under RCP8.5 until 2050, with respect to 2005. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2016-12-31
    Description: Asia's high plateaus are sensitive to climate change and have been experiencing rapid warming over the past few decades. We found 99 new lakes and extensive lake expansion on the Tibetan Plateau during the last four decades, 1970–2013, due to increased precipitation and cryospheric contributions to its water balance. This contrasts with disappearing lakes and drastic shrinkage of lake areas on the adjacent Mongolian Plateau: 208 lakes disappeared and 75% of the remaining lakes have shrunk. We detected a statistically significant coincidental timing of lake area changes in both plateaus, associated with the climate regime shift that occurred during 1997/1998. This distinct change in 1997/1998 is thought to be driven by large-scale atmospheric circulation changes in response to climate warming. Our findings reveal that these two adjacent plateaus have been changing in opposite directions in response to climate change. These findings shed light on the complex role of the regional climate and water cycles, and provide useful information for ecological and water resource planning in these fragile landscapes.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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