ALBERT

Description: Life has existed on the Earth for approximately four billion years. The sheer depth of evolutionary time, and the diversity of extant species, makes it tempting to assume that all the key biochemical innovations underpinning life have already happened. But we are only a little over halfway through the trajectory of life on our planet. In this Opinion piece, we argue: (i) that sufficient time remains for the evolution of new processes at the heart of metabolic biochemistry and (ii) that synthetic biology is providing predictive insights into the nature of these innovations. By way of example, we focus on engineered solutions to existing inefficiencies in energy generation, and on the complex, synthetic regulatory circuits that are currently being implemented.

Description: Dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) compartmental models provide a tool for predicting the size and duration of both unfettered and managed outbreaks—the latter in the context of interventions such as case detection, patient isolation, vaccination and treatment. The reliability of this tool depends on the validity of key assumptions that include homogeneity of individuals and spatio-temporal homogeneity. Although the SEIR compartmental framework can easily be extended to include demographic (e.g. age) and additional disease (e.g. healthcare workers) classes, dependence of transmission rates on time, and metapopulation structure, fitting such extended models is hampered by both a proliferation of free parameters and insufficient or inappropriate data. This raises the question of how effective a tool the basic SEIR framework may actually be. We go some way here to answering this question in the context of the 2014–2015 outbreak of Ebola in West Africa by comparing fits of an SEIR time-dependent transmission model to both country- and district-level weekly incidence data. Our novel approach in estimating the effective-size-of-the-populations-at-risk ( N eff ) and initial number of exposed individuals ( E 0 ) at both district and country levels, as well as the transmission function parameters, including a time-to-halving-the-force-of-infection ( t f/2 ) parameter, provides new insights into this Ebola outbreak. It reveals that the estimate R 0 ≈ 1.7 from country-level data appears to seriously underestimate R 0 ≈ 3.3 − 4.3 obtained from more spatially homogeneous district-level data. Country-level data also overestimate t f/2 ≈ 22 weeks, compared with 8–10 weeks from district-level data. Additionally, estimates for the duration of individual infectiousness is around two weeks from spatially inhomogeneous country-level data compared with 2.4–4.5 weeks from spatially more homogeneous district-level data, which estimates are rather high compared with most values reported in the literature. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Description: Natural selection theory suggests that mobile animals trade off time, energy and risk costs with food, safety and other pay-offs obtained by movement. We examined how birds make movement decisions by integrating aspects of flight biomechanics, movement ecology and behaviour in a hierarchical framework investigating flight track variation across several spatio-temporal scales. Using extensive global positioning system and accelerometer data from Eurasian griffon vultures ( Gyps fulvus ) in Israel and France, we examined soaring–gliding decision-making by comparing inbound versus outbound flights (to or from a central roost, respectively), and these (and other) home-range foraging movements (up to 300 km) versus long-range movements (longer than 300 km). We found that long-range movements and inbound flights have similar features compared with their counterparts: individuals reduced journey time by performing more efficient soaring–gliding flight, reduced energy expenditure by flapping less and were more risk-prone by gliding more steeply between thermals. Age, breeding status, wind conditions and flight altitude (but not sex) affected time and energy prioritization during flights. We therefore suggest that individuals facing time, energy and risk trade-offs during movements make similar decisions across a broad range of ecological contexts and spatial scales, presumably owing to similarity in the uncertainty about movement outcomes. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Moving in a moving medium: new perspectives on flight’.