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  • American Meteorological Society
  • 2010-2014  (184)
  • 1970-1974
  • 1955-1959
  • 2014  (184)
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  • 2010-2014  (184)
  • 1970-1974
  • 1955-1959
Year
  • 1
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    Social and Hydrological Responses to Extreme Precipitations: An Interdisciplinary Strategy for Postflood Investigation (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-01
    Description: This paper describes and illustrates a methodology to conduct postflood investigations based on interdisciplinary collaboration between social and physical scientists. The method, designed to explore the link between crisis behavioral response and hydrometeorological dynamics, aims at understanding the spatial and temporal capacities and constraints on human behaviors in fast-evolving hydrometeorological conditions. It builds on methods coming from both geosciences and transportations studies to complement existing postflood field investigation methodology used by hydrometeorologists. The authors propose an interview framework, structured around a chronological guideline to allow people who experienced the flood firsthand to tell the stories of the circumstances in which their activities were affected during the flash flood. This paper applies the data collection method to the case of the 15 June 2010 flash flood event that killed 26 people in the Draguignan area (Var, France). As a first step, based on the collected narratives, an abductive approach allowed the identification of the possible factors influencing individual responses to flash floods. As a second step, behavioral responses were classified into categories of activities based on the respondents' narratives. Then, aspatial and temporal analysis of the sequences made of the categories of action to contextualize the set of coping responses with respect to local hydrometeorological conditions is proposed. During this event, the respondents mostly follow the pace of change in their local environmental conditions as the flash flood occurs, official flood anticipation being rather limited and based on a large-scale weather watch. Therefore, contextual factors appear as strongly influencing the individual's ability to cope with the event in such a situation.
    Print ISSN: 1948-8327
    Electronic ISSN: 1948-8335
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 2
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    Evaluated Crop Evapotranspiration over a Region of Irrigated Orchards with the Improved ACASA–WRF Model (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-04-01
    Description: Among the uncertain consequences of climate change on agriculture are changes in timing and quantity of precipitation together with predicted higher temperatures and changes in length of growing season. The understanding of how these uncertainties will affect water use in semiarid irrigated agricultural regions depends on accurate simulations of the terrestrial water cycle and, especially, evapotranspiration. The authors test the hypothesis that the vertical canopy structure, coupled with horizontal variation in this vertical structure, which is associated with ecosystem type, has a strong impact on landscape evapotranspiration. The practical result of this hypothesis, if true, is validation that coupling the Advanced Canopy–Atmosphere–Soil Algorithm (ACASA) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) models provides a method for increased accuracy of regional evapotranspiration estimates. ACASA–WRF was used to simulate regional evapotranspiration from irrigated almond orchards over an entire growing season. The ACASA model handles all surface and vegetation interactions within WRF. ACASA is a multilayer soil–vegetation–atmosphere transfer model that calculates energy fluxes, including evapotranspiration, within the atmospheric surface layer. The model output was evaluated against independent evapotranspiration estimates based on eddy covariance. Results indicate the model accurately predicts evapotranspiration at the tower site while producing consistent regional maps of evapotranspiration (900–1100 mm) over a large area (1600 km2) at high spatial resolution (Δx = 0.5 km). Modeled results were within observational uncertainties for hourly, daily, and seasonal estimates. These results further show the robustness of ACASA’s ability to simulate surface exchange processes accurately in a complex numerical atmospheric forecast model such as WRF.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 3
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    Radio Occultation Observations as Anchor Observations in Numerical Weather Prediction Models and Associated Reduction of Bias Corrections in Microwave and Infrared Satellite Observations (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-01
    Description: Satellite radiance measurements are used daily at numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers around the world, providing a significant positive impact on weather forecast skill. Owing to the existence of systematic errors, either in the observations, instruments, and/or forward models, which can be larger than the signal, the use of infrared or microwave radiances in data assimilation systems requires significant bias corrections. As most bias-correction schemes do not correct for biases that exist in the model forecasts, the model needs to be grounded by an unbiased observing system. These reference measurements, also known as “anchor observations,” prevent a drift of the model to its own climatology and associated biases, thus avoiding a spurious drift of the observation bias corrections. This paper shows that the assimilation of global positioning system (GPS) radio occultation (RO) observations over a 3-month period in an operational NWP system results in smaller, more accurate bias corrections in infrared and microwave observations, resulting in an overall more effective use of satellite radiances and a larger number of radiance observations that pass quality control. A full version of the NCEP data assimilation system is used to evaluate the results on the bias corrections for the High Resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder-3 (HIRS-3) on NOAA-17 and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) on NOAA-15 in an operational environment.
    Print ISSN: 0739-0572
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0426
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 4
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    Examination of a Real-Time 3DVAR Analysis System in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-02-01
    Description: Forecasters and research meteorologists tested a real-time three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) system in the Hazardous Weather Testbed during the springs of 2010–12 to determine its capabilities to assist in the warning process for severe storms. This storm-scale system updates a dynamically consistent three-dimensional wind field every 5 min, with horizontal and average vertical grid spacings of 1 km and 400 m, respectively. The system analyzed the life cycles of 218 supercell thunderstorms on 27 event days during these experiments, producing multiple products such as vertical velocity, vertical vorticity, and updraft helicity. These data are compared to multiradar–multisensor data from the Warning Decision Support System–Integrated Information to document the performance characteristics of the system, such as how vertical vorticity values compare to azimuthal shear fields calculated directly from Doppler radial velocity. Data are stratified by range from the nearest radar, as well as by the number of radars entering into the analysis of a particular storm. The 3DVAR system shows physically realistic trends of updraft speed and vertical vorticity for a majority of cases. Improvements are needed to better estimate the near-surface winds when no radar is nearby and to improve the timeliness of the input data. However, the 3DVAR wind field information provides an integrated look at storm structure that may be of more use to forecasters than traditional radar-based proxies used to infer severe weather potential.
    Print ISSN: 0882-8156
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0434
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 5
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    Energy Partitioning and Evapotranspiration over a Rice Paddy in Southern Brazil (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-25
    Description: During approximately 80% of its growing season, lowland flooded irrigated rice ecosystems in southern Brazil are kept within a 5–10-cm water layer. These anaerobic conditions have an influence on the partitioning of the energy and water balance components. Furthermore, this cropping system differs substantially from any other upland nonirrigated or irrigated crop ecosystems. In this study, daily, seasonal, and annual dynamics of the energy and water balance components were analyzed over a paddy rice farm in a subtropical location in southern Brazil using eddy covariance measurements. In this region, rice is grown once a year in low wetlands while the ground is kept fallow during the remaining of the year. Results show that the energy budget residual corresponded to up to 20% of the net radiation during the rice-growing season and around 10% for the remainder of the year (fallow). The energy and water balance analysis also showed that because of the high water table in the region, soil was near saturation most of the time, and latent heat flux dominated over sensible heat flux by up to one order of magnitude in some cases. The estimate of evapotranspiration ET using the crop coefficient multiplied by the reference evapotranspiration KcETo and the Penman–Monteith equation ETPM, describing the canopy resistance through leaf area index (LAI) obtained by remote sensing, represent well the measured evapotranspiration, mainly in the fallow periods. Therefore, using a specific crop parameter like LAI and crop height can be an easy and interesting alternative to estimate ET in vegetated lowland areas.
    Print ISSN: 1525-755X
    Electronic ISSN: 1525-7541
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 6
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    Suppression of internal wave breaking in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current near topography (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 44 (2014): 1466–1492, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-12-0154.1.
    Description: Simultaneous full-depth microstructure measurements of turbulence and finestructure measurements of velocity and density are analyzed to investigate the relationship between turbulence and the internal wave field in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. These data reveal a systematic near-bottom overprediction of the turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate by finescale parameterization methods in select locations. Sites of near-bottom overprediction are typically characterized by large near-bottom flow speeds and elevated topographic roughness. Further, lower-than-average shear-to-strain ratios indicative of a less near-inertial wave field, rotary spectra suggesting a predominance of upward internal wave energy propagation, and enhanced narrowband variance at vertical wavelengths on the order of 100 m are found at these locations. Finally, finescale overprediction is typically associated with elevated Froude numbers based on the near-bottom shear of the background flow, and a background flow with a systematic backing tendency. Agreement of microstructure- and finestructure-based estimates within the expected uncertainty of the parameterization away from these special sites, the reproducibility of the overprediction signal across various parameterization implementations, and an absence of indications of atypical instrument noise at sites of parameterization overprediction, all suggest that physics not encapsulated by the parameterization play a role in the fate of bottom-generated waves at these locations. Several plausible underpinning mechanisms based on the limited available evidence are discussed that offer guidance for future studies.
    Description: The SOFine project is funded by the United Kingdom’s Natural Environmental Research Council (NERC) (Grant NE/G001510/1). SW acknowledges the support of anARCDiscovery Early CareerResearchAward (Grant DE120102927), as well as the Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College London, and the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science (Grant CE110001028). ACNG acknowledges the support of a NERC Advanced Research Fellowship (Grant NE/C517633/1).KLP acknowledges support fromWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution bridge support funds.
    Description: 2014-11-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Internal waves ; Small scale processes ; Turbulence ; Observational techniques and algorithms ; In situ oceanic observations ; Profilers, oceanic
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 7
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    Global patterns of diapycnal mixing from measurements of the turbulent dissipation rate (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-26
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2014. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Physical Oceanography 44 (2014): 1854–1872, doi:10.1175/JPO-D-13-0104.1.
    Description: The authors present inferences of diapycnal diffusivity from a compilation of over 5200 microstructure profiles. As microstructure observations are sparse, these are supplemented with indirect measurements of mixing obtained from (i) Thorpe-scale overturns from moored profilers, a finescale parameterization applied to (ii) shipboard observations of upper-ocean shear, (iii) strain as measured by profiling floats, and (iv) shear and strain from full-depth lowered acoustic Doppler current profilers (LADCP) and CTD profiles. Vertical profiles of the turbulent dissipation rate are bottom enhanced over rough topography and abrupt, isolated ridges. The geography of depth-integrated dissipation rate shows spatial variability related to internal wave generation, suggesting one direct energy pathway to turbulence. The global-averaged diapycnal diffusivity below 1000-m depth is O(10−4) m2 s−1 and above 1000-m depth is O(10−5) m2 s−1. The compiled microstructure observations sample a wide range of internal wave power inputs and topographic roughness, providing a dataset with which to estimate a representative global-averaged dissipation rate and diffusivity. However, there is strong regional variability in the ratio between local internal wave generation and local dissipation. In some regions, the depth-integrated dissipation rate is comparable to the estimated power input into the local internal wave field. In a few cases, more internal wave power is dissipated than locally generated, suggesting remote internal wave sources. However, at most locations the total power lost through turbulent dissipation is less than the input into the local internal wave field. This suggests dissipation elsewhere, such as continental margins.
    Description: This research was funded by the Climate Process Team (CPT) on internal wave–driven mixing throughNSF GrantOCE-0968721. GSC acknowledges support from NSF Grants OCE-0825266 (EXITS), OCE-1029483 (SPAM), and OCE-1029722 (MIXET). LDT and CBW acknowledge support from NSF Grant OCE-0927650. SWand ACNG acknowledge support from NERC Grant NE/G001510/1 (SOFine).
    Description: 2015-01-01
    Keywords: Circulation/ Dynamics ; Diapycnal mixing ; Internal waves
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Awareness of Both Type 1 and 2 Errors in Climate Science and Assessment (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-09-01
    Description: Treatment of error and uncertainty is an essential component of science and is crucial in policy-relevant disciplines, such as climate science. We posit here that awareness of both “false positive” and “false negative” errors is particularly critical in climate science and assessments, such as those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Scientific and assessment practices likely focus more attention to avoiding false positives, which could lead to higher prevalence of false-negative errors. We explore here the treatment of error avoidance in two prominent case studies regarding sea level rise and Himalayan glacier melt as presented in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. While different decision rules are necessarily appropriate for different circumstances, we highlight that false-negative errors also have consequences, including impaired communication of the risks of climate change. We present recommendations for better accounting for both types of errors in the scientific process and scientific assessments.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    Climatology of Upper Tropospheric–Lower Stratospheric (UTLS) Jets and Tropopauses in MERRA (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-04-23
    Description: A global climatology (1979–2012) from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) shows distributions and seasonal evolution of upper tropospheric jets and their relationships to the stratospheric subvortex and multiple tropopauses. The overall climatological patterns of upper tropospheric jets confirm those seen in previous studies, indicating accurate representation of jet stream dynamics in MERRA. The analysis shows a Northern Hemisphere (NH) upper tropospheric jet stretching nearly zonally from the mid-Atlantic across Africa and Asia. In winter–spring, this jet splits over the eastern Pacific, merges again over eastern North America, and then shifts poleward over the North Atlantic. The jets associated with tropical circulations are also captured, with upper tropospheric westerlies demarking cyclonic flow downstream from the Australian and Asian monsoon anticyclones and associated easterly jets. Multiple tropopauses associated with the thermal tropopause “break” commonly extend poleward from the subtropical upper tropospheric jet. In Southern Hemisphere (SH) summer, the tropopause break, along with a poleward-stretching secondary tropopause, often occurs across the tropical westerly jet downstream of the Australian monsoon region. SH high-latitude multiple tropopauses, nearly ubiquitous in June–July, are associated with the unique polar winter thermal structure. High-latitude multiple tropopauses in NH fall–winter are, however, sometimes associated with poleward-shifted upper tropospheric jets. The SH subvortex jet extends down near the level of the subtropical jet core in winter and spring. Most SH subvortex jets merge with an upper tropospheric jet between May and December; although much less persistent than in the SH, merged NH subvortex jets are common between November and April.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Statistical Emulation of Climate Model Projections Based on Precomputed GCM Runs* (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-02-24
    Description: The authors describe a new approach for emulating the output of a fully coupled climate model under arbitrary forcing scenarios that is based on a small set of precomputed runs from the model. Temperature and precipitation are expressed as simple functions of the past trajectory of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and a statistical model is fit using a limited set of training runs. The approach is demonstrated to be a useful and computationally efficient alternative to pattern scaling and captures the nonlinear evolution of spatial patterns of climate anomalies inherent in transient climates. The approach does as well as pattern scaling in all circumstances and substantially better in many; it is not computationally demanding; and, once the statistical model is fit, it produces emulated climate output effectively instantaneously. It may therefore find wide application in climate impacts assessments and other policy analyses requiring rapid climate projections.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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