ALBERT

Description: We present the results of airborne measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol particle number concentration (CN) made during the Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia (BARCA) program. The primary goal of BARCA is to address the question of basin-scale sources and sinks of CO2 and other atmospheric carbon species, a central issue of the Large-scale Biosphere-Atmosphere (LBA) program. The experiment consisted of two aircraft campaigns during November–December 2008 (BARCA-A) and May–June 2009 (BARCA-B), which covered the altitude range from the surface up to about 4500 m, and spanned most of the Amazon Basin. Based on meteorological analysis and measurements of the tracer, SF6, we found that airmasses over the Amazon Basin during the late dry season (BARCA-A, November 2008) originated predominantly from the Southern Hemisphere, while during the late wet season (BARCA-B, May 2009) low-level airmasses were dominated by northern-hemispheric inflow and mid-tropospheric airmasses were of mixed origin. In BARCA-A we found strong influence of biomass burning emissions on the composition of the atmosphere over much of the Amazon Basin, with CO enhancements up to 300 ppb and CN concentrations approaching 10 000 cm−3; the highest values were in the southern part of the Basin at altitudes of 1–3 km. The ΔCN/ΔCO ratios were diagnostic for biomass burning emissions, and were lower in aged than in fresh smoke. Fresh emissions indicated CO/CO2 and CN/CO emission ratios in good agreement with previous work, but our results also highlight the need to consider the residual smoldering combustion that takes place after the active flaming phase of deforestation fires. During the late wet season, in contrast, there was little evidence for a significant presence of biomass smoke. Low CN concentrations (300–500 cm−3) prevailed basinwide, and CO mixing ratios were enhanced by only ~10 ppb above the mixing line between Northern and Southern Hemisphere air. There was no detectable trend in CO with distance from the coast, but there was a small enhancement of CO in the boundary layer suggesting diffuse biogenic sources from photochemical degradation of biogenic volatile organic compounds or direct biological emission. Simulations of CO distributions during BARCA-A using a range of models yielded general agreement in spatial distribution and confirm the important contribution from biomass burning emissions, but the models evidence some systematic quantitative differences compared to observed CO concentrations. These mismatches appear to be related to problems with the accuracy of the global background fields, the role of vertical transport and biomass smoke injection height, the choice of model resolution, and reliability and temporal resolution of the emissions data base.

Description: We present simulations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations provided by two modeling systems, run at high spatial resolution: the Eulerian-based Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model and the Lagrangian-based Stochastic Time-Inverted Lagrangian Transport (STILT) model, both of which are coupled to a diagnostic biospheric model, the Vegetation Photosynthesis and Respiration Model (VPRM). The consistency of the simulations is assessed with special attention paid to the details of horizontal as well as vertical transport and mixing of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The dependence of model mismatch (Eulerian vs. Lagrangian) on models' spatial resolution is further investigated. A case study using airborne measurements during which two models showed large deviations from each other is analyzed in detail as an extreme case. Using aircraft observations and pulse release simulations, we identified differences in the representation of details in the interaction between turbulent mixing and advection through wind shear as the main cause of discrepancies between WRF and STILT transport at a spatial resolution such as 2 and 6 km. Based on observations and inter-model comparisons of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, we show that a refinement of the parameterization of turbulent velocity variance and Lagrangian time-scale in STILT is needed to achieve a better match between the Eulerian and the Lagrangian transport at such a high spatial resolution (e.g. 2 and 6 km). Nevertheless, the inter-model differences in simulated CO2 time series for a tall tower observatory at Ochsenkopf in Germany are about a factor of two smaller than the model-data mismatch and about a factor of three smaller than the mismatch between the current global model simulations and the data.

Description: The Amazon region, being a large source of methane (CH4), contributes significantly to the global annual CH4 budget. For the first time, a forward and inverse modelling framework on regional scale for the purpose of assessing the CH4 budget of the Amazon region is implemented. Here, we present forward simulations of CH4 as part of the forward and inverse modelling framework based on a modified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry that allows for passive tracer transport of CH4, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide (WRF-GHG), in combination with two different process-based bottom-up models of CH4 emissions from anaerobic microbial production in wetlands and additional datasets prescribing CH4 emissions from other sources such as biomass burning, termites, or other anthropogenic emissions. We compare WRF-GHG simulations on 10 km horizontal resolution to flask and continuous CH4 observations obtained during two airborne measurement campaigns within the Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia (BARCA) project in November 2008 and May 2009. In addition, three different wetland inundation maps, prescribing the fraction of inundated area per grid cell, are evaluated. Our results indicate that the wetland inundation maps based on remote-sensing data represent the observations best except for the northern part of the Amazon basin and the Manaus area. WRF-GHG was able to represent the observed CH4 mixing ratios best at days with less convective activity. After adjusting wetland emissions to match the averaged observed mixing ratios of flights with little convective activity, the monthly CH4 budget for the Amazon basin obtained from four different simulations ranges from 1.5 to 4.8 Tg for November 2008 and from 1.3 to 5.5 Tg for May 2009. This corresponds to an average CH4 flux of 9–31 mg m−2 d−1 for November 2008 and 8–36 mg m−2 d−1 for May 2009.

Description: During the GWADASEIS cruise (Lesser Antilles volcanic arc, February–March 2009) a very high resolution (VHR) seismic-reflection survey was performed in order to constrain Late Quaternary to Present faulting. The profiles we obtained evidence frequent "ponding" of reworked sediments in the deepest areas, similar to the deposition of Mediterranean "homogenites". These bodies are acoustically transparent (few ms t.w.t. thick) and are often deposited on the hanging walls of dominantly normal faults, at the base of scarps. Their thickness appears sufficient to compensate (i.e. bury) co-seismic scarps between successive earthquakes, resulting in a flat and horizontal sea floor through time. In a selected area (offshore Montserrat and Nevis islands), piston coring (4 to 7 m long) was dedicated to a sedimentological analysis of the most recent of these particular layers. It corresponds to non-stratified homogenous calcareous silty sand (reworked calcareous plankton and minor volcanoclastics). This layer can be up to 2 m thick, and overlies fine-grained hemipelagites. The upper centimeters of the latter represent the normal RedOx water/sediment interface. 210Pb and 137Cs activities lack in the massive sands, while a normal profile of unsupported 210Pb decrease is observed in the hemipelagite below, together with a 137Cs peak corresponding to the Atmospheric Nuclear Experiments (1962). The RedOx level was thus capped by a recent instantaneous major sedimentary event considered as post-1970 AD; candidate seismic events to explain this sedimentary deposits are either the 16 March 1985 earthquake or the 8 October 1974 one (Mw = 6.3 and Mw = 7.4, respectively). This leads to consider that the syntectonic sedimentation in this area is not continuous but results from accumulation of thick homogenites deposited after the earthquakes (as observed in the following weeks after Haiti January 2010 event, McHugh et al., 2011). The existence of such deposits suggests that, in the area of study, vertical throw likely results from cumulated effects of separated earthquakes rather than from aseismic creep. Examination of VHR profiles shows that all major co-seismic offsets are recorded in the fault growth sequence and that co-seismic offsets can be precisely estimated. By using a sedimentation rate deduced from 210Pb decrease curve (0.5 mm yr−1) and taking into account minor reworking events detected in cores, we show that the Redonda system may have been responsible for five 〉M6 events during the last 34 000 yr. The approach presented in this work differs from fault activity analyses using displaced sets of isochronous surfaces and postulating co-seismic offsets. Combining VHR seismic imagery and coring we can decipher co-seismic vs. slow continuous displacement, and thus actually estimate the amplitude and the time distribution of major co-seismic offsets.

Description: The main source of information on future climate conditions are global circulation models (GCMs). While the various GCMs agree on an increase of surface temperature, the predictions for precipitation exhibit high spread among the models, especially in shorter-than-daily temporal resolution. This paper presents a method to predict regional distributions of the hourly rainfall depth based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the GCM. It is based on a fuzzy logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th-century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. For the study region in southwestern Germany ECHAM5 predicts that the summers will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades. However, the results are yet to be confirmed by further mbox{investigation} based on other GCMs.

Description: Although regenerating forests make up an increasingly large portion of humid tropical landscapes, little is known of their water use and effects on streamflow (Q). Since the 1950s the island of Puerto Rico has experienced widespread abandonment of pastures and agricultural lands, followed by forest regeneration. This paper examines the possible impacts of these secondary forests on several Q characteristics for 12 mesoscale catchments (23–346 km2; mean precipitation 1720–3422 mm yr−1) with long (33–51 yr) and simultaneous records for Q, precipitation (P), potential evaporation (PET), and land cover. A simple spatially-lumped, conceptual rainfall–runoff model that uses daily P and PET time series as inputs (HBV-light) was used to simulate Q for each catchment. Annual time series of observed and simulated values of four Q characteristics were calculated. A least-squares trend was fitted through annual time series of the residual difference between observed and simulated time series of each Q characteristic. From this the total cumulative change (Â) was calculated, representing the change in each Q characteristic after controlling for climate variability and water storage carry-over effects between years. Negative values of  were found for most catchments and Q characteristics, suggesting enhanced actual evaporation overall following forest regeneration. However, correlations between changes in urban or forest area and values of  were insignificant (p ≥ 0.389) for all Q characteristics. This suggests there is no convincing evidence that changes in the chosen Q characteristics in these Puerto Rican catchments can be ascribed to changes in urban or forest area. The present results are in line with previous studies of meso- and macro-scale (sub-)tropical catchments, which generally found no significant change in Q that can be attributed to changes in forest cover. Possible explanations for the lack of a clear signal may include errors in the land cover, climate, Q, and/or catchment boundary data; changes in forest area occurring mainly in the less rainy lowlands; and heterogeneity in catchment response. Different results were obtained for different catchments, and using a smaller subset of catchments could have led to very different conclusions. This highlights the importance of including multiple catchments in land-cover impact analysis at the mesoscale.

Description: Although regenerating forests make up an increasingly large portion of humid tropical landscapes, comparatively little is known of their water use and effects on streamflow (Q). Since the 1950s the island of Puerto Rico has experienced widespread abandonment of pastures and agricultural lands, followed by forest regeneration. This paper examines the possible impacts of forest regeneration on several Q metrics for 12 meso-scale catchments (23–346 km2; mean precipitation 1720–3422 mm yr−1) with long (33–51 yr) and simultaneous records for Q, precipitation (P), potential evapotranspiration (PET), and land cover. A simple spatially-lumped, conceptual rainfall-runoff model that uses daily P and PET time series as inputs (HBV-light) was used to simulate Q for each catchment. Annual time series of observed and simulated values of four Q metrics were calculated. A least-squares trend was fitted through annual time series of the residual difference between observed and simulated time series of each Q metric. From this the total cumulative change  was calculated, representing the change in each metric after controlling for climate variability and water storage carry-over effects between years. Negative values of  were found for most catchments and Q metrics, suggesting enhanced actual evapotranspiration overall following forest regeneration. However, correlations between changes in urban or forest area and values of  were insignificant (p ≥ 0.389) for all Q metrics. This suggests there is no convincing evidence that changes in the chosen Q metrics in these Puerto Rican catchments can be ascribed to changes in urban or forest area. The present results are in line with previous studies of meso- and macro-scale (sub-)tropical catchments, which generally found no significant change in Q that can be attributed to changes in forest cover. Possible explanations for the apparent lack of a clear signal may include: errors in the land-cover, climate, Q, and/or catchment boundary data; changes in forest area occurring mainly in the less rainy lowlands; and heterogeneity in catchment response. Different results were obtained for different catchments, and using a smaller subset of catchments could have led to very different conclusions. This highlights the importance of including multiple catchments in land-cover impact analysis at the meso scale.

Description: Many hydraulic applications like the design of urban sewage systems require projections of future precipitation in high temporal resolution. We developed a method to predict the regional distribution of hourly precipitation sums based on daily mean sea level pressure and temperature data from a Global Circulation Model. It is an indirect downscaling method avoiding uncertain precipitation data from the model. It is based on a fuzzy-logic classification of atmospheric circulation patterns (CPs) that is further subdivided by means of the average daily temperature. The observed empirical distributions at 30 rain gauges to each CP-temperature class are assumed as constant and used for projections of the hourly precipitation sums in the future. The method was applied to the CP-temperature sequence derived from the 20th century run and the scenario A1B run of ECHAM5. According to ECHAM5, the summers in southwest Germany will become progressively drier. Nevertheless, the frequency of the highest hourly precipitation sums will increase. According to the predictions, estival water stress and the risk of extreme hourly precipitation will both increase simultaneously during the next decades.

Description: Climate change and land-use activities are increasing fire activity across much of the Siberian boreal forest, yet the climate feedbacks from forest disturbances remain difficult to quantify due to limited information on forest biomass distribution, disturbance regimes, and post-disturbance ecosystem recovery. Our primary objective here was to analyze post-fire accumulation of Cajander larch (Larix cajanderi Mayr.) aboveground biomass for a 100 000 km2 area of open forest in far northeastern Siberia. In addition to examining effects of fire size and topography on post-fire larch aboveground biomass, we assessed regional fire rotation and density, as well as performance of burned area maps generated from MODIS satellite imagery. Using Landsat imagery, we mapped 116 fire scar perimeters that dated ca. 1969–2007. We then mapped larch aboveground biomass by linking field biomass measurements to tree shadows mapped synergistically from WorldView-1 and Landsat 5 satellite imagery. Larch aboveground biomass tended to be low during early succession (≥ 25 yr, 271 ± 26 g m−2, n=66 [mean ± SE]) and decreased with increasing elevation and northwardly aspect. Larch aboveground biomass tended to be higher during mid-succession (33–38 yr, 746 ± 100 g m−2, n=32), though was highly variable. The high variability was not associated with topography and potentially reflected differences in post-fire density of tree regrowth. Neither fire size nor latitude were significant predictors of post-fire larch aboveground biomass. Fire activity was considerably higher in the Kolyma Mountains (fire rotation = 110 yr, fire density = 1.0 ± 1.0 fires yr−1 × 104 km−2 than along the forest-tundra border (fire rotation = 792 yr, fire density = 0.3 ± 0.3 fires yr−1 × 104 km−2. The MODIS burned area maps underestimated the total area burned in this region from 2000–2007 by 40%. Tree shadows mapped jointly using high and medium resolution satellite imagery were strongly associated (r2≈0.9) with field measurements of forest structure, which permitted spatial extrapolation of aboveground biomass to a regional extent. Better understanding of forest biomass distribution, disturbances, and post-disturbance recovery is needed to improve predictions of the net climatic feedbacks associated with landscape-scale forest disturbances in northern Eurasia.

Description: The Amazon region as a large source of methane (CH4) contributes significantly to the global annual CH4 budget. For the first time in the Amazon region, a forward and inverse modelling framework on regional scale for the purpose of assessing the CH4 budget of the Amazon region is implemented. Here, we present forward simulations of CH4 based on a modified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry that allows for passive tracer transport of CH4, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide (WRF-GHG), in combination with two different process-based bottom-up models of CH4 emissions from anaerobic microbial production in wetlands and additional datasets prescribing CH4 emissions from other sources such as biomass burning, termites, or other anthropogenic emissions. We compare WRF-GHG simulations on 10 km horizontal resolution to flask and continuous CH4 observations obtained during two airborne measurement campaigns within the Balanço Atmosférico Regional de Carbono na Amazônia (BARCA) project in November 2008 and May 2009. In addition, three different wetland inundation maps, prescribing the fraction of inundated area per grid cell, are evaluated. Our results indicate that the wetland inundation map with inundated area changing in time represents the observations best except for the northern part of the Amazon basin and the Manaus area. WRF-GHG was able to represent the observed CH4 mixing ratios best at days with less convective activity. After adjusting wetland emissions to match the averaged observed mixing ratios of flights with little convective activity, the monthly CH4 budget of the Amazon lowland region obtained from four different simulations ranges from 1.5 to 4.8 Tg for November 2008 and from 1.3 to 5.5 Tg for May 2009. This corresponds to an average CH4 flux of 9–31 mg m−2 d−1 for November 2008 and 8–36 mg m−2 d−1 for May 2009.