ALBERT

Description: The impact of ocean–atmosphere coupling on the structure and propagation characteristics of 30–60-day tropical intraseasonal oscillations (TISOs) is investigated by analyzing long-term simulations of the Meteorological Research Institute coupled general circulation model (CGCM) and its stand-alone atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) version forced with SSTs derived from the CGCM and comparing them with recent observation datasets [Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) precipitation, 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and Reynolds SST]. Composite events of (i) eastward propagating Madden–Julian oscillations (MJOs) during boreal winter and (ii) northward propagating intraseasonal oscillations (NPISOs) during boreal summer, constructed based on objective criteria, show that the three-dimensional structure, amplitude, and speed of propagation, and the phase relationship among surface fluxes, SST, and convection, are markedly improved in the CGCM simulation. Consistent with the frictional wave conditional instability of the second kind mechanism, successive development of low-level convergence to the east (north) of deep convection was found to be important for eastward (northward) propagation of MJO (NPISO). Complex interaction between large-scale dynamics and convection reveals the importance of atmospheric dynamics and suggests that they are intrinsic modes in the atmosphere where coupling is not essential for their existence. However, as in observations, realistic coupling in the CGCM is found to result in the evolution of TISOs as coupled modes through a coherent coupled feedback process. This acts as an amplifying mechanism for the existing propagating convective anomalies and plays an important modifying role toward a more realistic simulation of TISOs. In contrast, the simulated TISOs in its atmosphere-alone component lack many of the important features associated with their amplitude, phase, and life cycle. Thus, a realistic representation of the interaction between sea surface and the atmospheric boundary layer is crucial for a better simulation of TISOs.

Description: This study investigates the projections of river discharge for 24 major rivers in the world during the twenty-first century simulated by 19 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A1B scenario. To reduce model bias and uncertainty, a weighted ensemble mean (WEM) is used for multimodel projections. Although it is difficult to reproduce the present river discharge in any single model, the WEM results produce more accurate reproduction for most rivers, except those affected by anthropogenic water usage. At the end of the twenty-first century, the annual mean precipitation, evaporation, and runoff increase in high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, southern to eastern Asia, and central Africa. In contrast, they decrease in the Mediterranean region, southern Africa, southern North America, and Central America. Although the geographical distribution of the changes in precipitation and runoff tends to coincide with that in the river discharge, it should be emphasized that the change in runoff at the upstream region affects the river flow in the downstream region. In high-latitude rivers (Amur, Lena, MacKenzie, Ob, Yenisei, and Yukon), the discharge increases, and the peak timing shifts earlier because of an earlier snowmelt caused by global warming. Discharge tends to decrease for the rivers in Europe to the Mediterranean region (Danube, Euphrates, and Rhine), and southern United Sates (Rio Grande).