ALBERT

Description: Anthropogenic influences are expected to cause the probability distribution of weather variables to change in nontrivial ways. This study presents simple nonparametric methods for exploring and comparing differences in pairs of probability distribution functions. The methods are based on quantiles and allow changes in all parts of the probability distribution to be investigated, including the extreme tails. Adjusted quantiles are used to investigate whether changes are simply due to shifts in location (e.g., mean) and/or scale (e.g., variance). Sampling uncertainty in the quantile differences is assessed using simultaneous confidence intervals calculated using a bootstrap resampling method that takes account of serial (intraseasonal) dependency. The methods are simple enough to be used on large gridded datasets. They are demonstrated here by exploring the changes between European regional climate model simulations of daily minimum temperature and precipitation totals for winters in 1961–90 and 2071–2100. Projected changes in daily precipitation are generally found to be well described by simple increases in scale, whereas minimum temperature exhibits changes in both location and scale.

Description: This study investigates variability in the intensity of the wintertime Siberian high (SH) by defining a robust SH index (SHI) and correlating it with selected meteorological fields and teleconnection indices. A dramatic trend of –2.5 hPa decade−1 has been found in the SHI between 1978 and 2001 with unprecedented (since 1871) low values of the SHI. The weakening of the SH has been confirmed by analyzing different historical gridded analyses and individual station observations of sea level pressure (SLP) and excluding possible effects from the conversion of surface pressure to SLP. SHI correlation maps with various meteorological fields show that SH impacts on circulation and temperature patterns extend far outside the SH source area extending from the Arctic to the tropical Pacific. Advection of warm air from eastern Europe has been identified as the main mechanism causing milder than normal conditions over the Kara and Laptev Seas in association with a strong SH. Despite the strong impacts of the variability in the SH on climatic variability across the Northern Hemisphere, correlations between the SHI and the main teleconnection indices of the Northern Hemisphere are weak. Regression analysis has shown that teleconnection indices are not able to reproduce the interannual variability and trends in the SH. The inclusion of regional surface temperature in the regression model provides closer agreement between the original and reconstructed SHI.

Description: A simple linear stochastic climate model of extratropical wintertime ocean–atmosphere coupling is used to diagnose the daily interactions between the ocean and the atmosphere in a fully coupled general circulation model. Monte Carlo simulations with the simple model show that the influence of the ocean on the atmosphere can be difficult to estimate, being biased low even with multiple decades of daily data. Despite this, fitting the simple model to the surface air temperature and sea surface temperature data from the complex general circulation model reveals an ocean-to-atmosphere influence in the northeastern Atlantic. Furthermore, the simple model is used to demonstrate that the ocean in this region greatly enhances the autocorrelation in overlying lower-tropospheric temperatures at lags from a few days to many months.

Description: Seasons are the complex nonlinear response of the physical climate system to regular annual solar forcing. There is no a priori reason why they should remain fixed/invariant from year to year, as is often assumed in climate studies when extracting the seasonal component. The widely used econometric variant of Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (X-11), which allows for year-to-year variations in seasonal shape, is shown here to have some advantages for diagnosing climate variability. The X-11 procedure is applied to the monthly mean Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and global gridded NCEP–NCAR reanalyses of 2-m surface air temperature. The resulting seasonal component shows statistically significant interannual variations over many parts of the globe. By taking these variations in seasonality into account, it is shown that one can define less ambiguous ENSO indices. Furthermore, using the X-11 seasonal adjustment approach, it is shown that the three cold ENSO episodes after 1998 are due to an increase in amplitude of seasonality rather than being three distinct La Niña events. Globally, variations in the seasonal component represent a substantial fraction of the year-to-year variability in monthly mean temperatures. In addition, strong teleconnections can be discerned between the magnitude of seasonal variations across the globe. It might be possible to exploit such relationships to improve the skill of seasonal climate forecasts.

Description: In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures.

Description: Field line resonances have been observed for decades by ground-based and in situ instruments. The driving mechanism(s) are still unclear, although previous work has provided strong grounds that coherent waves in the solar wind may be a source. Here we present further evidence, with the use of multitaper analysis, a sophisticated spectrum estimation technique. A set of windows (dpss tapers) is chosen with characteristics that best suit the width of the narrowband peaks to be identified. The orthogonality of the windows allows for a confidence level (of say 95%) against a null hypothesis of a noisy spectrum, so that significant peaks can be identified. Employing multitaper analysis we can determine the phase and amplitude coherence at the sampling rate of the data sets and, over their entire duration. These characteristics make this technique superior to single windowing or wavelet analysis. A high degree of phase and amplitude (greater then 95%) coherence is demonstrated between a 2.1 mHz field line resonance observed by the SHARE radar at Sanae, Antarctica and the solar wind oscillation detected by WIND and ACE satellites.

Description: Comprehensive catalogues of ancient sunspot and auroral observations from East Asia are used to identify possible intense historical geomagnetic storms in the interval 210 BC-AD 1918. There are about 270 entries in the sunspot catalogue and about 1150 entries in the auroral catalogue. Special databases have been constructed in which the scientific information in these two catalogues is placed in specified fields. For the purposes of this study, an historical geomagnetic storm is defined in terms of an auroral observation that is apparently associated with a particular sunspot observation, in the sense that the auroral observation occurred within several days of the sunspot observation. More precisely, a selection criterion is formulated for the automatic identification of such geomagnetic storms, using the oriental records stored in the sunspot and auroral databases. The selection criterion is based on specific assumptions about the duration of sunspot visibility with the unaided eye, the likely range of heliographic longitudes of an energetic solar feature, and the likely range of transit times for ejected solar plasma to travel from the Sun to the Earth. This selection criterion results in the identification of nineteen putative historical geomagnetic storms, although two of these storms are spurious in the sense that there are two examples of a single sunspot observation being associated with two different auroral observations separated by more than half a (synodic) solar rotation period. The literary and scientific reliabilities of the East Asian sunspot and auroral records that define the nineteen historical geomagnetic storms are discussed in detail in a set of appendices. A possible time sequence of events is presented for each geomagnetic storm, including possible dates for both the central meridian passage of the sunspot and the occurrence of the energetic solar feature, as well as likely transit times for the ejected solar plasma. European telescopic sunspot drawings from the seventeenth century are also used to assess the credibility of some of the later historical geomagnetic storms defined solely by the East Asian sunspot and auroral records. These drawings cast doubt on a few of the associations between sunspot and auroral observations based entirely on the oriental records, at least to the extent that the occidental drawings provide a more realistic date for central meridian passage of the sunspot actually associated with a particular auroral observation. Nevertheless, on those occasions for which European sunspot drawings are available, the dates of all the pertinent East Asian sunspot and auroral observations are corroborated, apart from just one Chinese sunspot observation. The ancient historical observations of sunspots and aurorae are discussed briefly in terms of modern observations of great geomagnetic storms.

Description: The Ballagan Formation (Late Tournaisian–Early Viséan) of central Scotland yields an ostracod fauna of 14 species in ten genera, namely Beyrichiopsis, Cavellina, Glyptolichvinella, Glyptopleura, Knoxiella, Paraparchites, Sansabella, Shemonaella, Silenites and Sulcella. The ostracods, in combination with palynomorphs, are important biostratigraphical indices for correlating the rock sequences, where other means of correlation, especially goniatites, conodonts, foraminifera, brachiopods or corals are absent. Stratigraphical distribution of the ostracods, calibrated with well-established palynomorph biozones, identifies three informally defined intervals: a sub-CM palynomorph Biozone interval with poor ostracod assemblages including Shemonaella scotoburdigalensis; a succeeding interval within the CM palynomorph Biozone where Cavellina coela, Cavellina incurvescens, Sansabella amplectans and the new species Knoxiella monarchella and Paraparchites discus first appear; and, an upper interval, in the upper CM Biozone, marked by the appearance of Sulcella affiliata. At least locally in central Scotland, S. affiliata permits a level of resolution equivalent to a sub-zonal upper division of the CM Biozone. The fauna, flora, sedimentology and stable isotope composition (δ13C and δ18O) of carbonate minerals in the Ballagan Formation suggest the ostracods inhabited brackish, hypersaline and ephemeral aquatic ecologies in a coastal floodplain setting.