ALBERT

Notes: Understanding the distribution and function of Arctic and boreal ecosystems under current conditions and their vulnerability to altered forcing is crucial to our assessment of future global environmental change. Such efforts can be facilitated by the development and application of ecological models that simulate realistic patterns of vegetation change at high latitudes. This paper reviews three classes of ecological models that have been implemented to extrapolate vegetation information in space (e.g. across the Arctic and adjacent domains) and over historical and future periods (e.g. under altered climate and other forcings). These are: (i) equilibrium biogeographical models; (ii) frame-based transient ecosystem models, and (iii) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). The equilibrium response of high-latitude vegetation to scenarios of increased surface air temperatures projected by equilibrium biogeographical models is for tundra to be replaced by a northward shift of boreal woodland and forests. A frame-based model (ALFRESCO) indicates the same directional changes, but illustrates how response time depends on rate of temperature increase and concomitant changes in moisture regime and fire disturbance return period. Key disadvantages of the equilibrium models are that they do not simulate time-dependent responses of vegetation and the role of disturbance is omitted or highly generalized. Disadvantages of the frame-based models are that vegetation type is modelled as a set unit as opposed to an association of individually simulated plant functional types and that the role of ecosystem biogeochemistry in succession is not explicitly considered. DGVMs explicitly model disturbance (e.g. fire), operate on plant functional types, and incorporate constraints of nutrient availability on biomass production in the simulation of vegetation dynamics. Under changing climate, DGVMs detail conversion of tundra to tree-dominated boreal landscapes along with time-dependent responses of biomass, net primary production, and soil organic matter turnover–-which all increase with warming. Key improvements to DGVMs that are needed to portray behaviour of arctic and boreal ecosystems adequately are the inclusion of anaerobic soil processes for inundated landscapes, permafrost dynamics, and moss-lichen layer biogeochemistry, as well as broader explicit accounting of disturbance regimes (including insect outbreaks and land management). Transient simulation of these landscapes can be further tailored to high-latitude processes and issues by spatially interactive, gridded application of arctic/boreal frame-based models and development of dynamic regional vegetation models (DRVMs) utilizing plant functional type schemes that capture the variety of high-latitude environments.

Notes: Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3 °C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3–6-fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50–80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30–50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming-induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming.Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high-latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high-latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high-latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land–atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time-period to detect and quantify ecosystem feedbacks.

Notes: Abstract Studies from a variety of disciplines documentrecentchange in the northern high-latitude environment.Prompted by predictions of an amplified response oftheArctic to enhanced greenhouse forcing, we present asynthesis of these observations. Pronounced winter andspring warming over northern continents since about 1970ispartly compensated by cooling over the northern NorthAtlantic. Warming is also evident over the centralArcticOcean. There is a downward tendency in sea ice extent,attended by warming and increased areal extent of theArctic Ocean's Atlantic layer. Negative snow coveranomalies have dominated over both continents sincethelate 1980s and terrestrial precipitation has increasedsince 1900. Small Arctic glaciers have exhibitedgenerally negative mass balances. While permafrost haswarmed in Alaska and Russia, it has cooled in easternCanada. There is evidence of increased plant growth,attended by greater shrub abundance and northwardmigration of the tree line. Evidence also suggeststhatthe tundra has changed from a net sink to a net sourceofatmospheric carbon dioxide.Taken together, these results paint a reasonablycoherent picture of change, but their interpretationassignals of enhanced greenhouse warming is open todebate.Many of the environmental records are either short,areof uncertain quality, or provide limited spatialcoverage. The recent high-latitude warming is also nolarger than the interdecadal temperature range duringthis century. Nevertheless, the general patterns ofchange broadly agree with model predictions. Roughlyhalfof the pronounced recent rise in Northern Hemispherewinter temperatures reflects shifts in atmosphericcirculation. However, such changes are notinconsistentwith anthropogenic forcing and include generallypositive phases of the North Atlantic and ArcticOscillations and extratropical responses to theEl-NiñoSouthern Oscillation. An anthropogenic effect is alsosuggested from interpretation of the paleoclimaterecord,which indicates that the 20th century Arctic is thewarmest of the past 400 years.