ALBERT

Description: We estimate the potential predictability of European winter temperature using factors based on physical studies of their influences on European winter climate. These influences include sea surface temperature patterns in different oceans, major tropical volcanoes, the quasi-biennial oscillation in the tropical stratosphere, and anthropogenic climate change. We first assess the predictive skill for winter mean temperature in northern Europe by evaluating statistical hindcasts made using multiple regression models of temperature for Europe for winter and the January–February season. We follow this up by extending the methodology to all of Europe on a 5° × 5° grid and include rainfall for completeness. These results can form the basis of practical prediction methods. However, our main aim is to develop ideas to act as a benchmark for improving the performance of dynamical climate models. Because we consider only potential predictability, many of the predictors have estimated values coincident with the winter season being forecast. However, in each case, these values are predictable on average with considerable skill in advance of the winter season. A key conclusion is that to reproduce the results of this paper, dynamical forecasting models will require a fully resolved stratosphere. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society and British Crown copyright, the Met Office

Description: A time series of monthly mean surface temperatures taken at Svalbard airport, Spitzbergen, for the period 1912–2010 was examined for changes in melt-season length. The annual melt-season length was constructed from daily temperature estimates based on the monthly data using smoothing splines. We argue that the changes in annual melt-season length are linked to variability in regional sea surface temperatures, the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. A regression model for the melt-season length with these three parameters as predictors, explained about 40% of the observed variance. The annual mean melt season for the period from 1912 to 2010 was estimated to be 108 days, and the linear trend was 0.17 days/year. The risk of having positive extremes in the melt season increased with increasing Northern Hemisphere surface temperature and the regional sea surface temperatures. On the basis of our study of past observations, the 100-year return length of the melt season at Svalbard was predicted to change from the current 95% confidence interval of 131 (108, 138) days to 175 (109, 242) days with 1 °C warming of both regional sea surface temperature and the mean Northern Hemisphere surface temperature. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society

Description: Terra Nova, 00, 1–11, 2011 Abstract A shell of Gigantoproductus okensis shows twenty growth lines with marked changes of fabric, indicating periodical reduction of growth rates caused by environmental perturbations. The number of growth lines suggests a lifespan of 20 years in agreement with the survival rates of extant brachiopods, and with spiral deviation analysis. Geochemical analyses across the growth profile show a heterogeneous distribution of stable isotopes and trace elements. It is possible to distinguish primary from altered carbonate, and to interpret the isotopic data. The oxygen isotope signal in the unaltered parts is periodical and annual, with oscillation of ∼1.1‰. The higher values are at the growth lines (winter), and therefore most likely related to monsoon circulation during the Visean. The annual periodicity seems also present in the altered part of the shell, suggesting that diagenesis could have reset the primary values, but preserved their cyclicity.

Description: Interbasin and intrabasin gradients play an important role as a part of a regional system of Caribbean climate drivers, which include the Atlantic warm pool (AWP) and the Caribbean low-level jet (CLLJ). When the Caribbean is conditioned to be wet between May and November, near-surface geopotentials in the Caribbean are lower than in the nearby eastern tropical Pacific and east tropical Atlantic. As a result, there is vertical ascent in the Caribbean through to the middle troposphere which connects to zonal circulations with both the eastern tropical Pacific and the eastern tropical Atlantic. The Caribbean Sea is also warm, and there is a moderate easterly flow regime, indicating a weakening of the trade winds. Deviations from this state caused by changes in one or both sides of the Pacific-Caribbean and Caribbean-Atlantic circulations (and diagnosed by changes in their geopotential gradients) reasonably track the transition of the Caribbean from wet to dry and vice versa on intraseasonal and interannual time scales. The study also uses changes to the gradients to offer insight into why the Caribbean region is projected to be drier during its traditional rainy season in the face of warmer surface temperatures under global warming. The Caribbean seemingly enters into a “July” mode, which persists for the duration of the boreal summer. The mode is characterized by higher (lower) geopotentials in the Caribbean (Pacific and Atlantic), a stronger CLLJ, and anomalous descent in the Caribbean in spite of the warmer surface temperatures.

Description: Observations made near the Celtic Sea shelf edge are used to investigate the interaction between wind generated near-inertial oscillations and the semi-diurnal internal tide. Linear, baroclinic energy fluxes within the near-inertial ( f ) and semi-diurnal (M 2 ) wave bands are calculated from measurements of velocity and density structure at two moorings located 40 km from the internal tidal generation zone. Over the two week deployment period the semi-diurnal tide drove 28-48 W m -1 of energy directly on-shelf. Little spring-neap variability could be detected. Horizontal near-inertial energy fluxes were an order of magnitude weaker, but non-linear interaction between the vertical shear of inertial oscillations and the vertical velocity associated with the semi-diurnal internal tide led to a 25-43% increase in positive on-shelf energy flux. The phase relationship between f and M 2 determines whether this non-linear interaction enhances or dampens the linear tidal component of the flux, and introduces a 2-day counter clockwise beating to the energy transport. Two very clear contrasting regimes of (a) tidally and (b) inertially driven shear and energy flux are captured in the observations.

Description: Geodynamic models of mantle convection predict that Mexico and western North America share a history of dynamic support. We calculate admittance between gravity and topography, which indicates that the elastic thickness of the plate in Mexico is 11 km and in western North America it is 12 km. Admittance at wavelengths 〉 500 km in these regions suggests that topography is partly supported by sub-crustal processes. These results corroborate estimates of residual topography from isostatic calculations and suggest that the amount of North American topography supported by the mantle may exceed 1 km. The Cenozoic history of magmatism, sedimentary flux, thermochronometric denudation estimates and uplifted marine terraces imply that North American lithosphere was uplifted and eroded during the last 30 Ma. We jointly invert 533 Mexican and North American longitudinal river profiles to reconstruct a continent-scale rock uplift rate history. Uplift rate is permitted to vary in space and time. Erosional parameters are calibrated using incision rate data in southwest Mexico and the Colorado Plateau. Calculated rock uplift rates were 0.15–0.2 mm/yr between 25–10 Ma. Central Mexico experienced the highest uplift rates. Central and southern Mexico continued to uplift at 0.1 mm/yr until recent times. This uplift history is corroborated by independent constraints. We predict clastic flux to the Gulf of Mexico and compare it to independent estimates. We tentatively suggest that the loop between uplift, erosion and deposition can be closed here. Mexico's staged uplift history suggests that its dynamic support has changed during the last 30 Ma. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: The potential for climate change mitigation by bioenergy crops and terrestrial carbon sinks has been the object of intensive research in the past decade. There has been much debate about whether energy crops used to offset fossil fuel use, or carbon sequestration in forests, would provide the best climate mitigation benefit. Most current food cropland is unlikely to be used for bioenergy, but in many regions of the world, a proportion of cropland is being abandoned, particularly marginal croplands, and some of this land is now being used for bioenergy. In this paper we assess the consequences of land use change on cropland. We first identify areas where cropland is so productive that it may never be converted, and assess the potential of the remaining cropland to mitigate climate change by identifying which alternative land use provides the best climate benefit: C 4 grass bioenergy crops, coppiced woody energy crops, or allowing forest regrowth to create a carbon sink. We do not present this as a scenario of land use change – we simply assess the best option in any given global location should a land use change occur. To do this we use global biomass potential studies based on food-crop productivity, forest inventory data, and Dynamic Global Vegetation Models to provide, for the first time, a global comparison of the climate change implications of either deploying bioenergy crops or allowing forest regeneration on current crop land, over a period of 20 years starting in the nominal year of 2000 AD. Globally, the extent of cropland on which conversion to energy crops or forest would result in a net carbon loss, and therefore likely always to remain as cropland, was estimated to be about 420.1 Mha, or 35.6% of the total cropland in Africa, 40.3% in Asia and Russia Federation, 30.8% in Europe-25, 48.4% in North America, 13.7% in South America, and 58.5% in Oceania. Fast growing C 4 Grasses such as Miscanthus and switch-grass cultivars are the bioenergy feedstock with the highest climate mitigation potential. Fast growing C 4 grasses such as Miscanthus and switch-grass cultivars provide the best climate mitigation option on ≈ 485 Mha of cropland worldwide with ~ 42% of this land characterized by a terrain slope equal or above 20%. If that land use change did occur, it would displace ≈ 58.1 Pg fossil fuel C equivalent (C eq oil). Woody energy crops such as poplar, willow, and Eucalyptus species would be the best option on only 2.4% (≈ 26.3 Mha) of current cropland, and if this land use change occurred it would displace ≈ 0.9 Pg C eq oil. Allowing cropland to revert to forest would be the best climate mitigation option on ≈ 17% of current cropland (≈ 184.5 Mha) and if this land use change occurred it would sequester ≈ 5.8 Pg C in biomass in the 20-year-old forest, and ≈ 2.7 Pg C in soil. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Ecology, Ahead of Print. Predation pressure can alter the morphology, physiology, life history and behavior of prey; this in turn can change how surviving prey interact with parasites. These trait-mediated indirect effects may change in direction or intensity during growth or, in sexually dimorphic species, between the sexes. The Trinidadian guppy Poecilia reticulata presents a unique opportunity to examine these interactions; its behavioral ecology has been intensively studied in wild populations with well-characterized predator faunas. Predation pressure is known to have driven the evolution of many guppy traits; for example, in high-predation sites, females (but not males) tend to shoal, and this anti-predator behavior facilitates parasite transmission. To test for evidence of predator-driven differences in infection in natural populations, we collected 4715 guppies from 62 sites across Trinidad between 2003 and 2009 and screened them for ectosymbionts including Gyrodactylus. A novel model-averaging analysis revealed that females were more likely to be infected with Gyrodactylus parasites than males, but only in populations with both high predation pressure and high infection incidence. We propose that the difference in shoaling tendency between the sexes could explain the observed difference in infection incidence between males and females in high-predation sites. The infection rate of juveniles did not vary with predation regime, probably because juveniles face constant predation pressure from conspecific adults and therefore tend to shoal both in high- and low-predation sites. This represents the first evidence for age- and sex-specific trait-mediated indirect effects of predators on the probability of infection in their prey.

Description: ABSTRACT A workshop was held at the University of the West Indies, Jamaica, in May 2012 to build capacity in climate data rescue and to enhance knowledge about climate change in the Caribbean region. Scientists brought their daily observational surface temperature and precipitation data from weather stations for an assessment of quality and homogeneity and for the calculation of climate indices helpful for studying climate change in their region. This study presents the trends in daily and extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Caribbean region for records spanning the 1961–2010 and 1986–2010 intervals. Overall, the results show a warming of the surface air temperature at land stations. In general, the indices based on minimum temperature show stronger warming trends than indices calculated from maximum temperature. The frequency of warm days, warm nights and extreme high temperatures has increased while fewer cool days, cool nights and extreme low temperatures were found for both periods. Changes in precipitation indices are less consistent and the trends are generally weak. Small positive trends were found in annual total precipitation, daily intensity, maximum number of consecutive dry days and heavy rainfall events particularly during the period 1986–2010. Correlations between indices and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index suggest that temperature variability and, to a lesser extent, precipitation extremes are related to the AMO signal of the North Atlantic surface sea temperatures: stronger associations are found in August and September for the temperature indices and in June and October for some of the precipitation indices.