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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Risk analysis 19 (1999), S. 283-294 
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Risk perception ; pesticides ; pest management ; health effects ; agricultural pollution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract Water pollution from agricultural pesticides continues to be a public concern. Given that the use of such pesticides on the farm is largely governed by voluntary behavior, it is important to understand what drives farmer behavior. Health belief models in public health and social psychology argue that persons who have adverse health experiences are likely to undertake preventive behavior. An analogous hypothesis set was tested here: farmers who believe they have had adverse health experiences from pesticides are likely to have heightened concerns about pesticides and are more likely to take greater precautions in dealing with pesticides. This work is based on an original survey of a population of 2700 corn and soybean growers in Maryland, New York, and Pennsylvania using the U.S. Department of Agriculture data base. It was designed as a mail survey with telephone follow-up, and resulted in a 60 percent response rate. Farm operators report experiencing adverse health problems they believe are associated with pesticides that is equivalent to an incidence rate that is higher than the reported incidence of occupational pesticide poisonings, but similar to the reported incidence of all pesticide poisonings. Farmers who report experiencing such problems have more heightened concerns about water pollution from fertilizers and pesticides, and illness and injury from mixing, loading, and applying pesticides than farmers who have not experienced such problems. Farmers who report experiencing such problems also are more likely to report using alternative pest management practices than farmers who do not report having such problems. This implies that farmers who have had such experiences do care about the effects of application and do engage in alternative means of pest management, which at least involve the reduction in pesticide use.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1522-9602
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract A modified version of a previously developed mathematical model [Obeyesekere et al., Cell Prolif. (1997)] of the G1-phase of the cell cycle is presented. This model describes the regulation of the G1-phase that includes the interactions of the nuclear proteins, RB, cyclin E, cyclin D, cdk2, cdk4 and E2F. The effects of the growth factors on cyclin D synthesis under saturated or unsaturated growth factor conditions are investigated based on this model. The solutions to this model (a system of nonlinear ordinary differential equations) are discussed with respect to existing experiments. Predictions based on mathematical analysis of this model are presented. In particular, results are presented on the existence of two stablesolutions, i. e., bistability within the G1-phase. It is shown that this bistability exists under unsaturated growth factor concentration levels. This phenomenon is very noticeable if the efficiency of the signal transduction, initiated by the growth factors leading to cyclin D synthesis, is low. The biological significance of this result as well as possible experimental designs to test these predictions are presented.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 3
    ISSN: 1539-6924
    Keywords: Extreme events ; risk assessment ; risk management ; extreme value theory ; judgmental distributions
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering
    Notes: Abstract In this paper, we review methods for assessing and managing the risk of extreme events, where “extreme events” are defined to be rare, severe, and outside the normal range of experience of the system in question. First, we discuss several systematic approaches for identifying possible extreme events. We then discuss some issues related to risk assessment of extreme events, including what type of output is needed (e.g., a single probability vs. a probability distribution), and alternatives to the probabilistic approach. Next, we present a number of probabilistic methods. These include: guidelines for eliciting informative probability distributions from experts; maximum entropy distributions; extreme value theory; other approaches for constructing prior distributions (such as reference or noninformative priors); the use of modeling and decomposition to estimate the probability (or distribution) of interest; and bounding methods. Finally, we briefly discuss several approaches for managing the risk of extreme events, and conclude with recommendations and directions for future research.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 391-409 
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: I38 ; Key words: Interstate migration ; welfare ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper examines the extent to which differences in welfare generosity across states leads to interstate migration. Using microdata from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) between 1979 and 1992, we employ a quasi-experimental design that utilizes the categorical eligibility of the welfare system. The pattern of cross-state moves among poor single women with children, who are likely to be eligible for benefits is compared to the pattern among other poor households. We find little evidence indicating that welfare-induced migration is a widespread phenomenon.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Keywords: geostatistics ; spatial interpolation ; spatial pattern ; surface-fitting algorithms
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Mathematics
    Notes: Abstract A factorial, computational experiment was conducted to compare the spatial interpolation accuracy of ordinary and universal kriging and two types of inverse squared-distance weighting. The experiment considered, in addition to these four interpolation methods, the effects of four data and sampling characteristics: surface type, sampling pattern, noise level, and strength of small-scale spatial correlation. Interpolation accuracy was measured by the natural logarithm of the mean squared interpolation error. Main effects of all five factors, all two-factor interactions, and several three-factor interactions were highly statistically significant. Among numerous findings, the most striking was that the two kriging methods were substantially superior to the inverse distance weighting methods over all levels of surface type, sampling pattern, noise, and correlation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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