ALBERT

Description: As a first step in investigating the effects of sea ice changes on the climate sensitivity to doubled atmospheric CO2, the authors use a standard simple sea ice model while varying the sea ice distributions and thicknesses in the control run. Thinner ice amplifies the atmospheric temperature senstivity in these experiments by about 15% (to a warming of 4.8 C), because it is easier for the thinner ice to be removed as the climate warms. Thus, its impact on sensitivity is similar to that of greater sea ice extent in the control run, which provides more opportunity for sea ice reduction. An experiment with sea ice not allowed to change between the control and doubled CO2 simulations illustrates that the total effect of sea ice on surface air temperature changes, including cloud cover and water vapor feedbacks that arise in response to sea ice variations, amounts to 37% of the temperature sensitivity to the CO2 doubling, accounting for 1.56 C of the 4.17 C global warming. This is about four times larger than the sea ice impact when no feedbacks are allowed. The different experiments produce a range of results for southern high latitudes with the hydrologic budget over Antarctica implying sea level increases of varying magnitude or no change. These results highlight the importance of properly constraining the sea ice response to climate perturbations, necessitating the use of more realistic sea ice and ocean models.

Description: We propose to review measurements of the solar wind proton and alpha particle flow velocities and densities made since launch with the WIND SWE instrument. The SWE Faraday cup ion sensors are designed to be able to determine accurately flow vector directions, and thus can be used to detect proton-alpha particle differential flow. Instances of differential flow, and the solar wind features with which they are associated will be discussed. Additionally, the variability of the percentage of alpha particles as a fraction of the total solar wind ion density will be presented.

Description: The 3-D Plasma and Energetic Particle instrument on the GGS Wind spacecraft (launched November 1, 1994) is designed to make measurements of the full three-dimensional distribution of suprathermal electrons and ions from solar wind plasma to low energy cosmic rays, with high sensitivity, wide dynamic range, good energy and angular resolution, and high time resolution. Three pairs of double-ended telescopes, each with two or three closely sandwiched passivated ion implanted silicon detectors measure electrons and ions from approximately 20 keV to greater than or equal to 300 keV. Four top-hat symmetrical spherical section electrostatic analyzers with microchannel plate detectors, a large and a small geometric factor analyzer for electrons and a similar pair for ions, cover from approximately 3 eV to 30 keV. We present preliminary observations of the electron and ion distributions in the absence of obvious solar impulsive events and upstream particles. The quiet time electron energy spectrum shows a smooth approximately power law fall-off extending from the halo population at a few hundred eV to well above approximately 100 keV The quiet time ion energy spectrum also shows significant fluxes over this energy range. Detailed 3-D distributions and their temporal variations will be presented.

Description: The U.S. upper Midwest was subjected to severe flooding during the summer of 1993. Heavy rainfall in the Mississippi River basin from April through July caused flooding on many Midwest rivers, including the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas Rivers. The flood crest of 15.1 m at St. Louis, Missouri, on 1 August 1993 was the highest ever measured, surpassing the previous record of 13.2 m set on 28 April 1973. Damage estimates include at least 47 flood-related deaths and a total damage cost of $12 billion. Remotely sensed imagery of severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest was obtained under cloud-free skies on 29 July 1993 by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Airborne Simulator (MAS). The MAS is a newly developed scanning spectrometer with 50 spectral bands in the wavelength range 0.55-14.3 micrometers. Estimation of the total flooded area in the MAS scene acquired near St. Louis was accomplished by comparing the MAS scene to a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) scene of the same area acquired on 14 April 1984 in nonflood conditions. For comparison, the MAS band centered at 0.94 micrometers and the TM band centered at 1.65 micrometers were selected because of the high contrast seen in these bands between land and water-covered surfaces. An estimate of the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes was obtained by developing land/water brightness thresholds from histograms of the MAS and TM digital image data. Afetr applying the thresholds, the difference between the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes, and hence the flooded area in the MAS scene, was found to be about 396 sq km, or about 153 square miles.

Description: Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: Ulysses observations have revealed a new class of forward-reverse shock pairs in the solar wind that appears to be restricted to high heliographic latitudes. Shock pairs in this new class of events are produced by over-expansion (i.e., expansion driven by a high internal pressure) of coronal mass ejections, CMEs, that have speeds comparable to that of the surrounding solar wind plasma. Here we compare low- and high-latitude observations of an event observed both near Earth by IMP 8 and at high latitudes by Ulysses. At the time of these observations Ulysses was at 3.53 AU and was situated 47.2 deg south and 11.4 deg west of Earth (in the sense of planetary motion about the Sun). A fast CME that departed from the Sun on February 20, 1994 produced both a major (forward) shock wave disturbance in the ecliptic plane at 1 AU (and a large geomagnetic storm) and a forward reverse shock pair associated with over-expansion of the CME at high heliographic latitudes. The combined measurements provide a graphic illustration of how the same fast CME can produce totally different types of disturbances at low and high latitudes. Differences in the disturbances generated by the CME at high and low latitudes are due primarily to the different speeds initially prevailing in the ambient solar wind ahead of it. These observations are consistent with the results of simple numerical simulations of the event.

Description: Masses have now been determined for many of the CMEs observed in the inner heliosphere by the HELIOS 1 and 2 zodiacal light photometers. The speed of the brightest material of each CME has also been measured so that, for events having both mass and speed determinations, the kinetic energies of the CMEs are estimated. We compare the masses and kinetic energies of the individual CMEs measured in the inner heliosphere by HELIOS and near the Sun from observations by the SOLWIND (1979-1983) and SMM coronagraphs (1980). Where feasible we also compare the speeds of the same CMEs. We find that the HELIOS masses and energies tend to be somewhat larger by factors of 2-5 than those derived from the coronagraph data. We also compare the distribution of the masses and energies of the HELIOS and coronagraph CMEs over the solar cycle. These results provide an important baseline for observations of CMEs from coronagraphs, from the ISEE-3/ICE, WIND and Ulysses spacecraft and in the future from SOHO.

Description: A large number of magnetic holes have been found in the Ulysses data during its cruise in the ecliptic. They are interpreted as convecting structures, probably caused by the mirror instability which exists in high beta plasmas with anisotropic temperatures. The characteristics of the holes reflect the solar wind condition of the region in which the holes are formed, and the point of observation may be far removed from where the instability occurs. A preliminary survey appears to indicate that the number of holes has no significant radial dependence. However, the number of holes does appear to increase with increasing heliographic latitude. Yet the large scale solar wind structures with their compression regions disappeared at approximately 57 deg south latitude. Thus any causal relationship between the holes and large scale solar wind structures is questionable. The temperature anisotropy and high beta required by the mirror instability must be generated by other mechanisms. In order to tie the magnetic holes and the mirror instability to their cause, the evolution of their characteristics with heliocentric distance and latitude needs to be investigated. With the progression of Ulysses around the sun a survey will be conducted to ascertain the characteristics of the magnetic holes as a function of heliographic latitude and heliocentric distance. A comparison of the results with the solar wind conditions may lead to the identification of the magnetic hole generating mechanism(s).

Description: The traditionally measured electric fields in the solar wind plasma (about 1-10 mV/m) are not the natural, primordial ones but are the result of plasma-vehicle interaction. The theory of this interaction is not complete now and current interpretation of the measurements can fail. The state of fully ionized plasma depends on the entropy of the creating source and on the process in which plasma is involved. The increasing twofold of a moving volume in the solar wind (with energy transfer across its surface which is comparable with its whole internal energy) is a more rapid process than the relaxation for the pressure. The presumptive source of the solar wind creation - the induction electric field of the solar origin - has very low entropy. The state of plasma must be very far from the state of thermodynamic equilibrium. The internal energy of plasma can be contained mainly in plasma waves, resonant plasma oscillations, and electric currents. The primordial microscopic oscillating electric fields could be about 1 V/m. It can be checked by special measurements, not ruining the natural plasma state. The tool should be a dielectrical microelectroscope outside the distortion zone of the spacecraft, having been observed from the latter.