ALBERT

Description: Abstract Coastal wetlands are globally important sinks of organic carbon (C). However, to what extent wetland C cycling will be affected by accelerated sea‐level rise (SLR) and saltwater intrusion is unknown, especially in coastal peat marshes where water flow is highly managed. Our objective was to determine how the ecosystem C balance in coastal peat marshes is influenced by elevated salinity. For two years, we made monthly in situ manipulations of elevated salinity in freshwater (FW) and brackish water (BW) sites within Everglades National Park, Florida, USA. Salinity pulses interacted with marsh‐specific variability in seasonal hydroperiods whereby effects of elevated pulsed salinity on gross ecosystem productivity (GEP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem productivity (NEP) were dependent on marsh inundation level. We found little effect of elevated salinity on C cycling when both marsh sites were inundated, but when water levels receded below the soil surface, the BW marsh shifted from a C sink to a C source. During these exposed periods, we observed an approximately threefold increase in CO2 efflux from the marsh as a result of elevated salinity. Initially, elevated salinity pulses did not affect Cladium jamaicense biomass, but aboveground biomass began to be significantly decreased in the saltwater amended plots after two years of exposure at the BW site. We found a 65% (FW) and 72% (BW) reduction in live root biomass in the soil after two years of exposure to elevated salinity pulses. Regardless of salinity treatment, the FW site was C neutral while the BW site was a strong C source (−334 to −454 g C·m−2·yr−1), particularly during dry‐down events. A loss of live roots coupled with annual net CO2 losses as marshes transition from FW to BW likely contributes to the collapse of peat soils observed in the coastal Everglades. As SLR increases the rate of saltwater intrusion into coastal wetlands globally, understanding how water management influences C gains and losses from these systems is crucial. Under current Everglades’ water management, drought lengthens marsh dry‐down periods, which, coupled with saltwater intrusion, accelerates CO2 loss from the marsh.

Description: Evaluation of the progress of management programs for invasive species is crucial for demonstrating impacts to stakeholders and strategic planning of resource allocation. Estimates of abundance before and after management activities can serve as a useful metric of population management programs. However, many methods of estimating population size are too labor intensive and costly to implement, posing restrictive levels of burden on operational programs. Removal models are a reliable method for estimating abundance before and after management using data from the removal activities exclusively, thus requiring no work in addition to management. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate abundance from removal data accounting for varying levels of effort, and used simulations to assess the conditions under which reliable population estimates are obtained. We applied this model to estimate site-specific abundance of an invasive species, feral swine ( Sus scrofa ), using removal data from aerial gunning in 59 site/time-frame combinations (480-19,600 acres) throughout Oklahoma and Texas, U.S. Simulations showed that abundance estimates were generally accurate when effective removal rates (removal rate accounting for total effort) were above 0.40. However, when abundances were small (〈50) the effective removal rate needed to accurately estimates abundances was considerably higher (0.70). Based on our post-validation method 78% of our site/time frame estimates were accurate. To use this modeling framework it is important to have multiple removals (3+) within a time frame during which demographic changes are minimized (i.e., a closed population; ≤ 3 months for feral swine). Our results show that the probability of accurately estimating abundance from this model improves with increased sampling effort (8+ flight hours across the 3-month window is best) and increased removal rate. Based on the inverse relationship between inaccurate abundances and inaccurate removal rates, we suggest auxiliary information that could be collected and included in the model as covariates (e.g., habitat effects, differences between pilots) to improve accuracy of removal rates and hence abundance estimates. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Conserving migratory birds is made especially difficult because of movement among spatially disparate locations across the annual cycle. In light of challenges presented by the scale and ecology of migratory birds, successful conservation requires integrating objectives, management, and monitoring across scales, from local management units to ecoregional and flyway administrative boundaries. We present an integrated approach using a spatially explicit energetic-based mechanistic bird migration model useful to conservation decision-making across disparate scales and locations. This model moves a mallard-like bird ( Anas platyrhynchos ), through spring and fall migration as a function of caloric gains and losses across a continental-scale energy landscape. We predicted with this model that fall migration, where birds moved from breeding to wintering habitat, took a mean of 27.5 days of flight with a mean seasonal survivorship of 90.5% (95% CI = 89.2%, 91.9%) whereas spring migration took a mean of 23.5 days of flight with mean seasonal survivorship of 93.6% (95% CI = 92.5%, 94.7%). Sensitivity analyses suggested that survival during migration was sensitive to flight speed, flight cost, the amount of energy the animal could carry and the spatial pattern of energy availability, but generally insensitive to total energy availability per se . Nevertheless, continental patterns in the bird-use days occurred principally in relation to wetland cover and agricultural habitat in the fall. Bird-use days were highest in both spring and fall in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley and along the coast and near-shore environments of South Carolina. Spatial sensitivity analyses suggested that locations nearer to migratory endpoints were less important to survivorship; for instance, removing energy from a 1,036 km 2 stopover site at a time from the Atlantic Flyway suggested coastal areas between New Jersey and North Carolina, including Chesapeake Bay and the North Carolina piedmont, are essential locations for efficient migration and increasing survivorship during spring migration but not locations in Ontario and Massachusetts. This sort of spatially explicit information may allow decision-makers to prioritize their conservation actions toward locations most influential to migratory success. Thus, this mechanistic model of avian migration provides a decision-analytic medium integrating the potential consequences of local actions to flyway-scale phenomena. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Slow ecological processes challenge conservation. Short‐term variability can obscure the importance of slower processes that may ultimately determine the state of a system. Furthermore, management actions with slow responses can be hard to justify. One response to slow processes is to explicitly concentrate analysis on state dynamics. Here, we focus on identifying drivers of Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) territorial occupancy dynamics across 11 study areas spanning their geographic range and forecasting response to potential management actions. Competition with Barred Owls (Strix varia) has increased Spotted Owl territory extinction probabilities across all study areas and driven recent declines in Spotted Owl populations. Without management intervention, the Northern Spotted Owl subspecies will be extirpated from parts of its current range within decades. In the short term, Barred Owl removal can be effective. Over longer time spans, however, maintaining or improving habitat conditions can help promote the persistence of northern spotted owl populations. In most study areas, habitat effects on expected Northern Spotted Owl territorial occupancy are actually greater than the effects of competition from Barred Owls. This study suggests how intensive management actions (removal of a competitor) with rapid results can complement a slower management action (i.e., promoting forest succession).

Description: Disturbance is critical for the conservation of rangeland ecosystems worldwide and many of these systems are fire dependent. Although it is well established that restoring fire as an ecological process can lead to increased biodiversity in grasslands and shrublands, the underlying mechanisms driving community patterns are poorly understood for fauna in fire-prone landscapes. Much of this uncertainty stems from the paucity of studies that examine the effects of fire at scales relevant to organism life histories. We assessed the response of a non-migratory ground-dwelling bird to disturbance (i.e., prescribed fire) and environmental stochasticity over the course of a 4 year period, which spanned years of historic drought and record rainfall. Specifically, we investigated the nesting ecology of northern bobwhite ( Colinus virginianus ; hereafter bobwhite) to illuminate possible avenues by which individuals respond to dynamic landscape patterns during a critical reproductive stage (i.e., nesting) in a mixed-grass shrubland in western Oklahoma, USA. We found that bobwhites exhibited extreme plasticity in nest substrate use among time since fire categories (TSF) and subsequently maintained high nest survival (e.g., 57 – 70%). Bobwhites were opportunistic in nest substrate use among TSF categories (i.e., 72% of nest sites in shrubs in 0-12 months post fire compared to 71% in herbaceous vegetation in 〉36 months post fire), yet nesting decisions were first filtered by similar structural components (i.e., vertical and horizontal cover) within the vicinity of nest sites regardless of TSF category. Despite being a non-migratory and comparatively less mobile ground-nesting bird species, bobwhites adjusted to dynamic vegetation mosaics on a fire-prone landscape under stochastic climatic conditions which culminated in stable and high nest survival. Broadly, our findings provide a unique depiction of organism response strategies to fire at scales relevant to a critical life-stage, a topic that has been previously understudied and poorly understood. We also demonstrate how doing so can better inform conservation practices aimed at restoring fire regimes on grassland and shrubland landscapes. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Urbanization poses a global challenge to species conservation. This is primarily understood in terms of physical habitat loss, as agricultural and forested lands are replaced with urban infrastructure. However, aquatic habitats are also chemically degraded by urban development, often in the form of toxic stormwater runoff. Here we assess threats of urbanization to coho salmon throughout developed areas of the Puget Sound Basin in Washington, USA. Puget Sound coho are a sentinel species for freshwater communities and also a species of concern under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Previous studies have demonstrated that stormwater runoff is unusually lethal to adult coho that return to spawn each year in urban watersheds. To further explore the relationship between land use and recurrent coho die-offs, we measured mortality rates in field surveys of 51 spawning sites across an urban gradient. We then used spatial analyses to measure landscape attributes (land use and land cover, human population density, roadways, traffic intensity, etc.) and climatic variables (annual summer and fall precipitation) associated with each site. Structural equation modeling revealed a latent urbanization gradient that was associated with road density and traffic intensity, among other variables, and positively related to coho mortality. Across years within sites, mortality increased with summer and fall precipitation, but the effect of rainfall was strongest in the least developed areas and was essentially neutral in the most urbanized streams. We used the best-supported structural equation model to generate a predictive mortality risk map for the entire Puget Sound Basin. This map indicates an ongoing and widespread loss of spawners across much of the Puget Sound population segment, particularly within the major regional north-south corridor for transportation and development. Our findings identify current and future urbanization-related threats to wild coho, and show where green infrastructure and similar clean water strategies could prove most useful for promoting species conservation and recovery.

Description: Fire is a disturbance process that maintains the structure and function of grassland ecosystems while sustaining grassland biodiversity. Conversion of grasslands to other land uses coupled with altered disturbance regimes have greatly diminished the habitat available to many grassland dependent species. These changes have been linked to declines in breeding bird populations, but may also be critical for migrating bird populations such as those shorebird species that depend on mesic grasslands during migration. We examined migratory shorebird use of burned grasslands in the southern Great Plains of North America using DISTANCE sampling to estimate and compare bird densities across recently burned and not recently burned landscapes (1-5 years post fire). We conducted two surveys per week for 8-10 weeks along a 54 km route starting at the end of March and concluding in mid-May during 2014-2015. We encountered 2,509 total shorebirds in recently burned areas compared to 130 individuals in areas that were unburned. Fire was a major attractant for our three focal species with American golden-plover ( Pluvialis dominica ), upland sandpiper ( Bartramia longicauda ), and killdeer ( Charadrius vociferus ) densities of 20.48, 11.09, and 26.09 birds per km 2 in burned areas compared with 0.00, 1.27, and 0.92 birds per km 2 in unburned areas, respectively. This research illustrates the importance of burned grassland for migrating shorebirds, a phenomenon that has largely gone unreported previously. Generally, these findings add to a body of knowledge that demonstrates the value of managing grasslands with historic disturbances that vary over space and time. The application of these findings should improve decision-making for shorebird conservation and provides evidence that prescribed fire planning should include consideration for breeding, transient, and non-breeding populations that vary in their temporal use of the landscape. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Abstract Rangelands are temporally and spatially complex socio‐ecological systems on which the predominant land use is livestock production. In North America, rangelands also contain approximately 80% of remaining habitat for grassland birds, a guild of species that has experienced precipitous declines since the 1970s. While livestock grazing management may benefit certain grassland bird species by generating the vegetation structure and density they prefer, these outcomes are poorly understood for avian species breeding in the shortgrass steppe. We evaluated how two grazing management systems – continuous, season‐long grazing and adaptive, rest‐rotational grazing – affected grassland bird abundance from 2013–2017 in Colorado’s shortgrass steppe. We examined grazing impacts in conjunction with ecological sites, which constitute unique soil and plant communities. When grazing management was evaluated in conjunction with spatial variation in ecological sites, we found three of our five focal bird species responded to grazing management. McCown’s longspur abundance decreased in pastures rested from grazing the previous year. The effect of grazing on horned lark and grasshopper sparrow depended on ecological site – horned lark density was highest in pastures that were intensively grazed and grasshopper sparrow density was highest in pastures that were rested the previous year in the least productive ecological site. In addition, densities of all species varied across ecological sites. Our results suggest consideration of soil and vegetation characteristics can inform how adaptive management is applied on a landscape to benefit the full suite of breeding grassland birds, including species that have seemingly contrasting habitat needs. For example, a manager could target adaptive drought mitigation practices, such as resting pastures for one year to generate grassbanks, in less productive soils to benefit grassland birds that prefer taller/denser vegetation structure, or could apply intensive, short‐duration grazing on less productive soils to benefit species preferring shorter/sparser vegetation. A single year of intensive, short‐duration grazing (i.e., one component of our rotational treatment) across the landscape, however, might not create sufficient habitat for species that prefer short/sparse vegetation in our system (e.g., McCown’s longspur). Ultimately, our study indicates how cattle production on rangelands can congruently support grassland bird populations in the shortgrass steppe.

Description: The biodiversity and high productivity of coastal terrestrial and aquatic habitats are the foundation for important benefits to human societies around the world. These globally distributed habitats need frequent and broad systematic assessments, but field surveys only cover a small fraction of these areas. Satellite-based sensors can repeatedly record the visible and near-infrared reflectance spectra that contain the absorption, scattering, and fluorescence signatures of functional phytoplankton groups, colored dissolved matter, and particulate matter near the surface ocean, and of biologically structured habitats (floating and emergent vegetation, benthic habitats like coral, seagrass, and algae). These measures can be incorporated into Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs), including the distribution, abundance, and traits of groups of species populations, and used to evaluate habitat fragmentation. However, current and planned satellites are not designed to observe the EBVs that change rapidly with extreme tides, salinity, temperatures, storms, pollution, or physical habitat destruction over scales relevant to human activity. Making these observations requires a new generation of satellite sensors able to sample with these combined characteristics: (1) spatial resolution on the order of 30 to 100-m pixels or smaller; (2) spectral resolution on the order of 5 nm in the visible and 10 nm in the short-wave infrared spectrum (or at least two or more bands at 1,030, 1,240, 1,630, 2,125, and/or 2,260 nm) for atmospheric correction and aquatic and vegetation assessments; (3) radiometric quality with signal to noise ratios (SNR) above 800 (relative to signal levels typical of the open ocean), 14-bit digitization, absolute radiometric calibration 〈2%, relative calibration of 0.2%, polarization sensitivity 〈1%, high radiometric stability and linearity, and operations designed to minimize sunglint; and (4) temporal resolution of hours to days. We refer to these combined specifications as H4 imaging. Enabling H4 imaging is vital for the conservation and management of global biodiversity and ecosystem services, including food provisioning and water security. An agile satellite in a 3-d repeat low-Earth orbit could sample 30-km swath images of several hundred coastal habitats daily. Nine H4 satellites would provide weekly coverage of global coastal zones. Such satellite constellations are now feasible and are used in various applications.

Description: Disentangling the role that multiple interacting factors have on species responses to shifting climate poses a significant challenge. However, our ability to do so is of utmost importance to predict the effects of climate change on species distributions. We examined how populations of three species of wetland breeding amphibians, which varied in life history requirements, responded to a six-year period of extremely variable in precipitation. This interval was punctuated by both extensive drought and heavy precipitation and flooding, providing a natural experiment to measure community responses to environmental perturbations. We estimated occurrence dynamics using a discrete hidden Markov modeling approach that incorporated information regarding habitat state and predator-prey interactions. This approach allowed us to measure how metapopulation dynamics of each amphibian species was affected by interactions among weather, wetland hydroperiod, and co-occurrence with fish predators. The pig frog, a generalist, proved most resistant to perturbations, with both colonization and persistence being unaffected by seasonal variation in precipitation or co-occurrence with fishes. The ornate chorus frog, an ephemeral wetland specialist, responded positively to periods of drought owing to increased persistence and colonization rates during periods of low-rainfall. Low probabilities of occurrence of the ornate chorus frog in long-duration wetlands were driven by interactions with predators due to low colonization rates when fishes were present. The mole salamander was most sensitive to shifts in water availability. In our study area, this species never occurred in short-duration wetlands and persistence probabilities decreased during periods of drought. At the same time, negative effects occurred with extreme precipitation because flooding facilitated colonization of fishes to isolated wetlands and mole salamanders did not colonize wetlands once fishes were present. We demonstrate that the effects of changes in water availability depend on interactions with predators and wetland type and are influenced by the life history of each of our species. The dynamic species occurrence modeling approach we used offers promise for other systems when the goal is to disentangle the complex interactions that determine species responses to environmental variability. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.