ALBERT

Description: Over the last 120 years, the dry season in the southeastern United States has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130%), with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no apparent change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be affecting fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters. Abstract Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet–dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897–2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder‐days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.

Description: Quantifying drought at different temporal scales by varying the time length (i.e., grain) and timing (i.e., window) describes different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence animal food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. For North American Great Plains breeding birds, drought had negative, but species and temporal scale‐dependent effects, supporting a larger pattern of multiple and nuanced wildlife responses to unfavorable weather. Considering drought at different temporal scales may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and improve understanding of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species and the landscapes they inhabit. Abstract Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather extremes, including severe droughts in many regions. Drought can impact organisms by inhibiting reproduction, reducing survival and abundance, and forcing range shifts. For birds, considering temporal scale by averaging drought‐related variables over different time lengths (i.e., temporal grains) captures different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. However, studies examining drought impacts on birds often assess a single temporal grain without considering that different species have different life histories that likely determine the temporal grain of their drought response. Furthermore, while drought is known to influence bird abundance and drive between‐year range shifts, less understood is whether it causes within‐range changes in species distributions. Our objectives were to (a) determine which temporal grain of drought (if any) is most related to bird presence/absence and whether this response is species specific; and (b) assess whether drought alters bird distributions by quantifying probability of local colonization and extinction as a function of drought intensity. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data collected over 16 years, generalized linear mixed models, and dynamic occupancy models to meet these objectives. Different bird species responded to drought at different temporal grains, with most showing the strongest signal at annual or near‐annual grains. For all drought‐responsive species, increased drought intensity at any temporal grain always correlated with decreased occupancy. Additionally, colonization/extinction analyses indicated that one species, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is more likely to colonize novel areas within the southern/core portion of its range during drought. Considering drought at different temporal grains, along with hydrologic attributes captured by each grain, may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and therefore improve understanding of how global climate change impacts species and the landscapes they inhabit.

Description: Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. In this paper we show that under climate change alone, population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature’s Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria. Abstract Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) is a key crop in many tropical countries and globally provides an export value of over US$13 billion per year. Wild Arabica coffee is of fundamental importance for the global coffee sector and of direct importance within Ethiopia, as a source of harvestable income and planting stock. Published studies show that climate change is projected to have a substantial negative influence on the current suitable growing areas for indigenous Arabica in Ethiopia and South Sudan. Here we use all available future projections for the species based on multiple general circulation models (GCMs), emission scenarios, and migration scenarios, to predict changes in Extent of Occurrence (EOO), Area of Occupancy (AOO), and population numbers for wild Arabica coffee. Under climate change our results show that population numbers could reduce by 50% or more (with a few models showing over 80%) by 2088. EOO and AOO are projected to decline by around 30% in many cases. Furthermore, present‐day models compared to the near future (2038), show a reduction for EOO of over 40% (with a few cases over 50%), although EOO should be treated with caution due to its sensitivity to outlying occurrences. When applying these metrics to extinction risk, we show that the determination of generation length is critical. When applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red list of Threatened Species (IUCN Red List) criteria, even with a very conservative generation length of 21 years, wild Arabica coffee is assessed as Threatened with extinction (placed in the Endangered category) under a broad range of climate change projections, if no interventions are made. Importantly, if we do not include climate change in our assessment, Arabica coffee is assessed as Least Concern (not threatened) when applying the IUCN Red List criteria.

Description: Quantifying drought at different temporal scales by varying the time length (i.e., grain) and timing (i.e., window) describes different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence animal food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. For North American Great Plains breeding birds, drought had negative, but species and temporal scale‐dependent effects, supporting a larger pattern of multiple and nuanced wildlife responses to unfavorable weather. Considering drought at different temporal scales may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and improve understanding of the effects of anthropogenic climate change on species and the landscapes they inhabit. Abstract Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather extremes, including severe droughts in many regions. Drought can impact organisms by inhibiting reproduction, reducing survival and abundance, and forcing range shifts. For birds, considering temporal scale by averaging drought‐related variables over different time lengths (i.e., temporal grains) captures different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. However, studies examining drought impacts on birds often assess a single temporal grain without considering that different species have different life histories that likely determine the temporal grain of their drought response. Furthermore, while drought is known to influence bird abundance and drive between‐year range shifts, less understood is whether it causes within‐range changes in species distributions. Our objectives were to (a) determine which temporal grain of drought (if any) is most related to bird presence/absence and whether this response is species specific; and (b) assess whether drought alters bird distributions by quantifying probability of local colonization and extinction as a function of drought intensity. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data collected over 16 years, generalized linear mixed models, and dynamic occupancy models to meet these objectives. Different bird species responded to drought at different temporal grains, with most showing the strongest signal at annual or near‐annual grains. For all drought‐responsive species, increased drought intensity at any temporal grain always correlated with decreased occupancy. Additionally, colonization/extinction analyses indicated that one species, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is more likely to colonize novel areas within the southern/core portion of its range during drought. Considering drought at different temporal grains, along with hydrologic attributes captured by each grain, may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and therefore improve understanding of how global climate change impacts species and the landscapes they inhabit.