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Amplitude Modulation of Seasonal Variability in Terrestrial Water Storage (2019)

Hamlington, B. D. ; Reager, J. T. ; Chandanpurkar, H. ; [et al.]

American Geophysical Union

In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2019; 46(8): 4404-4412. Published 2019 Apr 23. doi: 10.1029/2019gl082272.

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Publication Date: 2019-04-23

Description: Variability in climate and weather in many land regions is dominated by a seasonal cycle that is typically defined by as a stable, repeated pattern. Defining the annual cycle as strictly stationary, however, precludes the possibility of changes in its amplitude from one year to the next. In this study, we target and extract the modulated annual cycle in terrestrial water storage with a statistical analysis technique specifically suited to this application. We estimate the amplitude modulation of the annual cycle in terrestrial water storage in order to assess the drivers of strength of the seasonal water cycle from year to year and identify trends in the amplitude that are persistent over the 13-year record used here. We find that climate variability is found to be one of the dominant drivers of the strength of the annual cycle in terrestrial water storage, with El Niño-Southern Oscillation found to play a particularly significant role, as identified in previous studies. ©2019. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Print ISSN: 0094-8276

Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Published by American Geophysical Union

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Sea level trends in South East Asian Seas (SEAS) (2014)

Strassburg, M. W. ; Hamlington, B. D. ; Leben, R. R. ; [et al.]

Copernicus

In: Climate of the Past Discussions. 2014; 10(5): 4129-4148. Published 2014 Oct 17. doi: 10.5194/cpd-10-4129-2014.

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Publication Date: 2014-10-17

Description: Southeast Asian Seas (SEAS) span the largest archipelago in the global ocean and provide a complex oceanic pathway connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The SEAS regional sea level trends are some of the highest observed in the modern satellite altimeter record that now spans almost two decades. Initial comparisons of global sea level reconstructions find that 17 year sea level trends over the past 60 years exhibit good agreement in areas and at times of strong signal to noise associated decadal variability forced by low frequency variations in Pacific trade winds. The SEAS region exhibits sea level trends that vary dramatically over the studied time period. This historical variation suggests that the strong regional sea level trends observed during the modern satellite altimeter record will abate as trade winds fluctuate on decadal and longer time scales. Furthermore, after removing the contribution of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) to sea level trends in the past twenty years, the rate of sea level rise is greatly reduced in the SEAS region. As a result of the influence of the PDO, the SEAS regional sea level trends during 2010s and 2020s are likely to be less than the global mean sea level (GMSL) trend if the observed oscillations in wind forcing and sea level persist. Nevertheless, long-term sea level trends in the SEAS will continue to be affected by GMSL rise occurring now and in the future.

Print ISSN: 1814-9340

Electronic ISSN: 1814-9359

Topics: Geosciences

Published by Copernicus on behalf of European Geosciences Union.

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Future Nuisance Flooding in Norfolk, VA, From Astronomical Tides and Annual to Decadal Internal Climate Variability (2018)

Burgos, A. G. ; Hamlington, B. D. ; Thompson, P. R. ; [et al.]

American Geophysical Union

In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2018; 45(22): 12432-12439. Published 2018 Nov 28. doi: 10.1029/2018gl079572.

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Publication Date: 2018-11-28

Description: Increasing sea level rise will lead to more instances of nuisance flooding along the Virginia coastline in the coming decades, causing road closures and deteriorating infrastructure. These minor flood events can be caused by astronomical tides alone, in addition to internal climate variability on annual to decadal timescales. An assessment of nuisance flooding from these two effects is presented up until the year 2050 for Norfolk, Virginia. The analysis of water levels indicates that nuisance flooding from tides alone in conjunction with a medium-high sea level scenario will result in flooding beginning in 2030 with frequency increasing thereafter. The addition of climate variability, by use of an empirical mode decomposition, leads to a substantial increase of flooding relative to the tides-alone analysis and shows flood events beginning as soon as 2020. High tides in the future will produce nuisance flooding without the need of other drivers such as coastal storms. ©2018. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

Print ISSN: 0094-8276

Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007

Topics: Geosciences , Physics

Published by American Geophysical Union

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