ALBERT

Description: Using results from four coupled global carbon cycle-climate models combined with in situ observations, we estimate the combined effects of future global warming and ocean acidification on potential habitats for tropical/subtropical and temperate coral communities in the seas around Japan. The suitability of the coral habitats are identified primarily on the basis of the currently observed ranges for temperature and saturation states Ω with regard to aragonite (Ωarag). We find that under the "business as usual" SRES A2 scenario, coral habitats will expand northward by several hundred kilometers by the end of this century. At the same time, coral habitats are projected to become sandwiched between the tropical regions, where the frequency of coral bleaching will increase, and the temperate-to-subpolar latitudes, where Ωarag will become too low to support sufficiently high calcification rates. As a result, the area of coral habitats around Japan that is suitable to tropical-subtropical communities will be reduced by half by the 2020s to 2030s, and is projected to disappear by the 2030s to 2040s. The suitable habitats for the temperate coral communities are also becoming smaller, although at a less pronounced rate due to their higher tolerance for low Ωarag.

Description: Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil carbon emissions and multiple climate targets are essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient responses in different climate variables are quantified for a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization and in idealized experiments using the Bern3D-LPJ carbon-climate model. The model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte-Carlo type framework. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.88 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.28 to 2.69 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and in steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The slopes of the relationships change when CO2 is stabilized. The Transient Climate Response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models, but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Description: The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is an important element of the carbon cycle and co-governs the distribution of carbon and alkalinity within the ocean. However, CaCO3 fluxes and mechanisms governing CaCO3 dissolution are highly uncertain. We present an observationally-constrained, probabilistic assessment of the global and regional CaCO3 budgets. Parameters governing pelagic CaCO3 export fluxes and dissolution rates are sampled using a Latin-Hypercube scheme to construct a 1000 member ensemble with the Bern3D ocean model. Ensemble results are constrained by comparing simulated and observation-based fields of excess dissolved calcium carbonate (TA*). The minerals calcite and aragonite are modelled explicitly and ocean–sediment fluxes are considered. For local dissolution rates either a strong, a weak or no dependency on CaCO3 saturation is assumed. Median (68 % confidence interval) global CaCO3 export is 0.82 (0.67–0.98) Gt PIC yr−1, within the lower half of previously published estimates (0.4–1.8 Gt PIC yr−1). The spatial pattern of CaCO3 export is broadly consistent with earlier assessments. Export is large in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo–Pacific, the northern Pacific and relatively small in the Atlantic. Dissolution within the 200 to 1500 m depth range (0.33; 0.26–0.40 Gt PIC yr−1) is substantially lower than inferred from the TA*-CFC age method (1 ± 0.5 Gt PIC yr−1). The latter estimate is likely biased high as the TA*-CFC method neglects transport. The constrained results are robust across a range of diapycnal mixing coefficients and, thus, ocean circulation strengths. Modelled ocean circulation and transport time scales for the different setups were further evaluated with CFC11 and radiocarbon observations. Parameters and mechanisms governing dissolution are hardly constrained by either the TA* data or the current compilation of CaCO3 flux measurements such that model realisations with and without saturation-dependent dissolution achieve skill. We suggest to apply saturation-independent dissolution rates in Earth System Models to minimise computational costs.

Description: Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4), temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dangaard-Oeschger (DO) events) as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event). The onsets of DO warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppbv in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppbv over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling similar to the widespread 8.2 kyr event. As a main result we get a concentration reduction of ~10 ppbv per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. This sensitivity comprises effects on peatland emissions of similar size by the temperature itself as well as by the accompanying change in precipitation rate, hence water table. Comparison with the ice core record reveals that a change in boreal peatland emissions alone could not completely account for the 80 ppbv methane decline during the 8.2 kyr event, pointing to a significant contribution from tropical wetlands to this event.

Description: Decadal-to-century scale trends for a range of marine environmental variables are investigated using results from seven Earth System Models forced by a high greenhouse gas emission scenario. The models as a class represent the observation-based distribution of the fugacity of oxygen (fO2) and carbon dioxide (fCO2), and the logarithm of their ratio, i.e. the Respiration Index (RI), albeit major mismatches between observation-based and simulated values remain for individual models. All models project an increase in SST between 2 °C and 3 °C by year 2100, a decrease in upper ocean pH and in the saturation state of water with respect to calcium carbonate minerals, and a decrease in the total ocean inventory of dissolved oxygen by 2% to 4%. Projected fO2 changes in the thermocline show a complex pattern with both increasing and decreasing trends reflecting the subtle balance of different competing factors such as circulation, production, remineralisation, and temperature changes. Projected changes in the total volume of hypoxic and suboxic waters remain relatively small in all models. A widespread increase of fCO2 in the thermocline is projected. The median of the thermocline fCO2 distribution shifts from 350 μatm in year 1990 to 700–800 μatm in year 2100, primarily as a result of the invasion of anthropogenic carbon from the atmosphere and is responsible for the widespread decrease in the RI outside low oxygen regions. The co-occurrence of changes in a range of environmental variables indicates the need to further investigate their synergistic impacts on marine ecosystems and Earth System feedbacks.

Description: Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185%. Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite undersaturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally soon and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emissions are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm.

Description: Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all three models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in productivity and export of particulate organic carbon. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in primary and export production as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where two models project an increase in productivity while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observations compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer primary production from satellite observations.