Publikationsdatum:
1987-06-19
Beschreibung:
A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Kagan, Y Y -- Knopoff, L -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 1987 Jun 19;236(4808):1563-7.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17835741" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Digitale ISSN:
1095-9203
Thema:
Biologie
,
Chemie und Pharmazie
,
Informatik
,
Medizin
,
Allgemeine Naturwissenschaft
,
Physik
Permalink
