ALBERT

Description: This paper describes and illustrates a methodology to conduct postflood investigations based on interdisciplinary collaboration between social and physical scientists. The method, designed to explore the link between crisis behavioral response and hydrometeorological dynamics, aims at understanding the spatial and temporal capacities and constraints on human behaviors in fast-evolving hydrometeorological conditions. It builds on methods coming from both geosciences and transportations studies to complement existing postflood field investigation methodology used by hydrometeorologists. The authors propose an interview framework, structured around a chronological guideline to allow people who experienced the flood firsthand to tell the stories of the circumstances in which their activities were affected during the flash flood. This paper applies the data collection method to the case of the 15 June 2010 flash flood event that killed 26 people in the Draguignan area (Var, France). As a first step, based on the collected narratives, an abductive approach allowed the identification of the possible factors influencing individual responses to flash floods. As a second step, behavioral responses were classified into categories of activities based on the respondents' narratives. Then, aspatial and temporal analysis of the sequences made of the categories of action to contextualize the set of coping responses with respect to local hydrometeorological conditions is proposed. During this event, the respondents mostly follow the pace of change in their local environmental conditions as the flash flood occurs, official flood anticipation being rather limited and based on a large-scale weather watch. Therefore, contextual factors appear as strongly influencing the individual's ability to cope with the event in such a situation.

Description: Understanding how climate science can be useful in decisions about the management of freshwater resources requires knowledge of decision makers, their climate-sensitive decisions, and the context in which the decisions are being made. A mixed-methods study found that people managing freshwater resources in Hawaii are highly educated and experienced in diverse professions, they perceive climate change as posing a worrisome risk, and they would like to be better informed about how to adapt to climate change. Decision makers with higher climate literacy seem to be more comfortable dealing with uncertain information. Those with lower climate literacy seem to be more trusting of climate information from familiar sources. Freshwater managers in Hawaii make a wide range of climate-sensitive decisions. These decisions can be characterized on several key dimensions including purpose (optimization and evaluation), time horizon (short term and long term), level of information uncertainty (known, uncertain, deeply uncertain, and completely unknown), and information type (quantitative and qualitative). The climate information most relevant to decision makers includes vulnerability assessments incorporating long-term projections about temperature, rainfall distribution, storms, sea level rise, and streamflow changes at an island or statewide scale. The main barriers to using available climate information include insufficient staff time to locate the information and the lack of a clear legal mandate to use the information. Overall, the results suggest that an integrated and systematic approach is needed to determine where and when uncertain climate information is useful and how a larger set of organizational and individual variables affect decision making.

Description: Effective communication about severe weather requires that providers of weather information disseminate accurate and timely messages and that the intended recipients (i.e., the population at risk) receive and react to these messages. This article contributes to extant research on the second half of this equation by introducing a “real time” measure of public attention to severe weather risk communication based on the growing stream of data that individuals publish on social media platforms, in this case, Twitter. The authors develop a metric that tracks temporal fluctuations in tornado-related Twitter activity between 25 April 2012 and 11 November 2012 and assess the validity of the metric by systematically comparing fluctuations in Twitter activity to the issuance of tornado watches and warnings, which represent basic but important forms of communication designed to elicit, and therefore correlate with, public attention. The assessment finds that the measure demonstrates a high degree of convergent validity, suggesting that social media data can be used to advance our understanding of the relationship between risk communication, attention, and public reactions to severe weather.

Description: We develop a stochastic North Atlantic hurricane track model whose climate inputs are Atlantic main development region (MDR) and Indo-Pacific (IP) sea surface temperatures and produce extremely long model simulations for 58 different climates, each one conditioned on 5 yr of observed SSTs from 1950 to 2011—hereafter referred as medium-term (MT) views. Stringent tests are then performed to prove that MT simulations are better predictors of hurricane landfalls than a long-term view conditioned on the entire SST time series from 1950 to 2011. In this analysis, the authors extrapolate beyond the historical record, but not in terms of a forecast of future conditions. Rather it is attempted to define—within the limitation of the modeling approach—the magnitude of extreme events that could have materialized in the past at fixed probability thresholds and what is the likelihood of observed landfalls given such estimates. Finally, a loss proxy is built and the value of the analysis results from a simplified property and casualty insurance perspective is shown. Medium-term simulations of hurricane activity are used to set the strategy of reinsurance coverage purchased by a hypothetical primary insurance, leading to improved solvency margins.

Description: Numerous mechanisms link outdoor weather and climate conditions to human health. It is likely that many health conditions are more directly affected by indoor rather than outdoor conditions. Yet, the relationship between indoor temperature and humidity conditions to outdoor variability, and the heterogeneity of the relationship among different indoor environments are largely unknown. The authors use 5–14-day measures of indoor temperature and relative humidity from 327 dwellings in New York City New York, for the years 2008–11 to investigate the relationship between indoor climate, outdoor meteorological conditions, socioeconomic conditions, and building descriptors. Study households were primarily middle income and located across the boroughs of Brooklyn, Queens, Bronx, and Manhattan. Indoor temperatures are positively associated with outdoor temperature during the warm season and study dwellings in higher socioeconomic status neighborhoods are significantly cooler. During the cool season, outdoor temperatures have little effect on indoor temperatures; however, indoor temperatures can range more than 10°C between dwellings despite similar outdoor temperatures. Apartment buildings tend to be significantly warmer than houses and dwellings on higher floors are also significantly warmer than dwellings on lower floors. Outdoor specific humidity is positively associated with indoor specific and relative humidity, but there is no consistent relationship between outdoor and indoor relative humidity. In New York City, the relationship between indoor and outdoor temperature and humidity conditions varies significantly between dwellings. These results can be used to inform studies of health outcomes for which temperature or humidity is an established factor affecting human health. The results highlight the need for more research on the determinants of indoor climate.

Description: Climate change is increasingly recognized as having national security implications, which has prompted dialogue between the climate change and national security communities—with resultant advantages and differences. Climate change research has proven useful to the national security community sponsors in several ways. It has opened security discussions to consider climate as well as political factors in studies of the future. It has encouraged factoring in the stresses placed on societies by climate changes (of any kind) to help assess the potential for state stability. And it has shown that changes such as increased heat, more intense storms, longer periods without rain, and earlier spring onset call for building climate resilience as part of building stability. For the climate change research community, studies from a national security point of view have revealed research lacunae, such as the lack of usable migration studies. This has also pushed the research community to consider second- and third-order impacts of climate change, such as migration and state stability, which broadens discussion of future impacts beyond temperature increases, severe storms, and sea level rise and affirms the importance of governance in responding to these changes. The increasing emphasis in climate change science toward research in vulnerability, resilience, and adaptation also frames what the intelligence and defense communities need to know, including where there are dependencies and weaknesses that may allow climate change impacts to result in security threats and where social and economic interventions can prevent climate change impacts and other stressors from resulting in social and political instability or collapse.

Description: Students have been described as being both particularly vulnerable to natural disasters and highly resilient in recovery. In addition, they often have been treated as a distinct, homogeneous group sharing similar characteristics. This research tests these ideas through an examination of hurricane-related perceptions and preparations of students in a hurricane-prone area. A survey of over 500 undergraduate students (15% on-campus residents, 85% off campus) was conducted at the University of South Florida, a large, metropolitan-based university located in Tampa Bay, Florida, near the Gulf Coast. Following Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis tests, results showed that students were ill prepared for hurricanes and lacked specific knowledge of the risk. There were small but statistically significant differences in mean responses with respect to gender, age, and ethnicity on specific questions, while ethnicity most strongly warrants future research. Whether the magnitude of statistical differences results in behavioral differences is unclear. Using discriminant function analysis, attempts to identify heterogeneous subgroups based on gender, ethnicity, and age likewise found weak to moderate significant differences, supporting the contention that students are largely homogeneous with regard to certain aspects of hurricane perceptions and preparedness, though again ethnicity demands closer attention in subsequent studies.

Description: Recent improvements in weather observation and monitoring have increased the precision of tornado warnings. The National Weather Service currently issues storm-based tornado warnings, and even more geographically specific warnings that include probability information are under development. At the same time, the widespread proliferation of smartphone and mobile computing technology supports the rapid dissemination of graphical weather warning information. Some broadcasters and private companies have already begun using probabilistic-style tornado warning graphics. However, the development of these new types of warnings has occurred with limited research on how users interpret probabilistic visualizations. This study begins filling this void by examining responses to color scheme and relative position using probabilistic tornado warning designs. A survey of university students is used to measure the level of perceived fear and likelihood of protective action for a series of hypothetical warning scenarios. Central research questions investigate 1) differences in responses across warning designs, 2) clustering of extreme responses in each design, 3) trends in responses with respect to probability levels, 4) differences in responses inside versus outside the warnings, and 5) differences in responses near the edges of the warning designs. Results suggest a variety of trade-offs in viewer responses to tornado warnings based on visual design choices. These findings underscore the need for more comprehensive research on visualizations in weather hazard communication that can aid meteorologists in effectively warning the public and spur appropriate tornado protection behaviors in a timely manner.

Description: This paper contributes to existing knowledge on factors that influence adoption of hazards adjustments for tornadoes. The Protective Action Decision Model provides the theoretical basis for the study, which was conducted after the 2011 disaster in DeKalb County, Alabama. Most of the 124 survey participants had received public safety information on how to prepare for a tornado, understood the definition of a tornado warning, had participated in a tornado drill, and had a plan for seeking shelter. Few owned a NOAA weather radio or had a tornado-resistant shelter on the premises. Demographic analysis found that older residents (60+ yr) and households without children were significantly less likely to have participated in a tornado drill, lower income residents were significantly less likely to have a tornado-resistant shelter on the premises or a plan for seeking shelter, and mobile home residents were significantly less likely to have a plan for seeking shelter. Locus of control and past experience were not significantly associated with adoption of hazards adjustments, but suspected reasons for these results are discussed. Many plans that involved evacuating to another location included excessively long travel distances, and several mobile home residents planned to seek shelter inside their residence. Failure to adopt effective preparedness actions in each of these areas could serve as a situational impediment to making an appropriate protective action decision when a tornado threatens the household. The results identify aspects of household preparedness where there is opportunity for improvement, which would reduce vulnerability and enhance community resilience.

Description: Many decadal climate prediction efforts have been initiated under phase 5 of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. There is considerable ongoing discussion about model deficiencies, initialization techniques, and data requirements, but not much attention is being given to decadal climate information (DCI) needs of stakeholders for decision support. Here, the authors report the results of exploratory activities undertaken to assess DCI needs in water resources and agriculture sectors, using the Missouri River basin as a case study. This assessment was achieved through discussions with 120 stakeholders. Stakeholders’ awareness of decadal dry and wet spells and their societal impacts in the basin are described, and stakeholders’ DCI needs and potential barriers to their use of DCI are enumerated. The authors find that impacts, including economic impacts, of decadal climate variability (DCV) on water and agricultural production in the basin are distinctly identifiable and characterizable. Stakeholders have clear notions about their needs for DCI and have offered specific suggestions as to how these might be met. However, while stakeholders are eager to have climate information, including decadal climate outlooks (DCOs), there are many barriers to the use of such information. The first and foremost barrier is that the credibility of DCOs is yet to be established. Second, the nature of institutional rules and regulations, laws, and legal precedents that pose obstacles to the use of DCOs must be better understood and means to modify these, where possible, must be sought. For the benefit of climate scientists, these and other stakeholder needs are also articulated in this paper.