ALBERT

Description: Central Georgia is an area strongly affected by earthquake and landslide hazards. On 29 April 1991 a major earthquake (Mw  =  7.0) struck the Racha region in Georgia, followed by aftershocks and significant afterslip. The same region was hit by another major event (Mw  =  6.0) on 7 September 2009. The aim of the study reported here was to utilize interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data to improve knowledge about the spatial pattern of deformation due to the 2009 earthquake. There were no actual earthquake observations by InSAR in Georgia. We considered all available SAR data images from different space agencies. However, due to the long wavelength and the frequent acquisitions, only the multi-temporal ALOS L-band SAR data allowed us to produce interferograms spanning the 2009 earthquake. We detected a local uplift around 10 cm (along the line-of-sight propagation) in the interferogram near the earthquake's epicenter, whereas evidence of surface ruptures could not be found in the field along the active thrust fault. We simulated a deformation signal which could be created by the 2009 Racha earthquake on the basis of local seismic records and by using an elastic dislocation model. We compared our modeled fault surface of the September 2009 with the April 1991 Racha earthquake fault surfaces and identify the same fault or a sub-parallel fault of the same system as the origin. The patch that was active in 2009 is just adjacent to the 1991 patch, indicating a possible mainly westward propagation direction, with important implications for future earthquake hazards.

Description: Lava flow simulations help to better understand volcanic hazards and may assist emergency preparedness at active volcanoes. We demonstrate that at Fogo Volcano, Cabo Verde, such simulations can explain the 2014–2015 lava flow crisis and therefore provide a valuable base to better prepare for the next inevitable eruption. We conducted topographic mapping in the field and a satellite-based remote sensing analysis. We produced the first topographic model of the 2014–2015 lava flow from combined terrestrial laser scanner (TLS) and photogrammetric data. This high-resolution topographic information facilitates lava flow volume estimates of 43.7 ± 5.2 × 106 m3 from the vertical difference between pre- and posteruptive topographies. Both the pre-eruptive and updated digital elevation models (DEMs) serve as the fundamental input data for lava flow simulations using the well-established DOWNFLOW algorithm. Based on thousands of simulations, we assess the lava flow hazard before and after the 2014–2015 eruption. We find that, although the lava flow hazard has changed significantly, it remains high at the locations of two villages that were destroyed during this eruption. This result is of particular importance as villagers have already started to rebuild the settlements. We also analysed satellite radar imagery acquired by the German TerraSAR-X (TSX) satellite to map lava flow emplacement over time. We obtain the lava flow boundaries every 6 to 11 days during the eruption, which assists the interpretation and evaluation of the lava flow model performance. Our results highlight the fact that lava flow hazards change as a result of modifications of the local topography due to lava flow emplacement. This implies the need for up-to-date topographic information in order to assess lava flow hazards. We also emphasize that areas that were once overrun by lava flows are not necessarily safer, even if local lava flow thicknesses exceed the average lava flow thickness. Our observations will be important for the next eruption of Fogo Volcano and have implications for future lava flow crises and disaster response efforts at basaltic volcanoes elsewhere in the world.

Description: Small steam-driven volcanic explosions are common at volcanoes worldwide but are rarely documented or monitored; therefore, these events still put residents and tourists at risk every year. Steam-driven explosions also occur frequently (once every 2–5 years on average) at Lascar volcano, Chile, where they are often spontaneous and lack any identifiable precursor activity. Here, for the first time at Lascar, we describe the processes culminating in such a sudden volcanic explosion that occurred on 30 October 2015, which was thoroughly monitored by cameras, a seismic network, and gas and temperature sensors. Prior to the eruption, we retrospectively identified unrest manifesting as a gradual increase in the number of long-period (LP) seismic events in 2014, indicating an enhanced level of activity at the volcano. Additionally, sulfur dioxide (SO2) flux and thermal anomalies were detected before the eruption. Then, our weather station reported a precipitation event, followed by an increase in steaming and a sudden volcanic explosion at Lascar. The multidisciplinary data exhibited short-term variations associated with the explosion, including (1) an abrupt eruption onset that was seismically identified in the 1–10 Hz frequency band, (2) the detection of a 1.7 km high white-gray eruption column in camera images, and (3) a pronounced spike in SO2 emission rates reaching 55 kg s−1 during the main pulse of the eruption as measured by a mini-differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) scanner. Continuous carbon dioxide (CO2) and temperature measurements conducted at a fumarole on the southern rim of the Lascar crater revealed a pronounced change in the trend of the relationship between the CO2 mixing ratio and the gas outlet temperature; we speculate that this change was associated with the prior precipitation event. An increased thermal anomaly inside the active crater as observed in Sentinel-2 images and drone overflights performed after the steam-driven explosion revealed the presence of a ∼50 m long fracture truncating the floor of the active crater, which coincides well with the location of the thermal anomaly. This study presents the chronology of events culminating in a steam-driven explosion but also demonstrates that phreatic explosions are difficult to predict, even if the volcano is thoroughly monitored; these findings emphasize why ascending to the summits of Lascar and similar volcanoes is hazardous, particularly after considerable precipitation.

Description: Lava domes are subjected to structural weakening that can lead to gravitational collapse and produce pyroclastic flows that may travel up to several kilometers from a volcano's summit. At Merapi volcano, Indonesia, pyroclastic flows are a major hazard, frequently causing high numbers of casualties. After the Volcanic Explosivity Index 4 eruption in 2010, a new lava dome developed on Merapi volcano and was structurally destabilized by six steam-driven explosions between 2012 and 2014. Previous studies revealed that the explosions produced elongated open fissures and a delineated block in the southern dome sector. Here, we investigated the geomorphology, structures, thermal fingerprint, alteration mapping and hazard potential of the Merapi lava dome by using drone-based geomorphologic data and forward-looking thermal infrared images. The block on the southern dome of Merapi is delineated by a horseshoe-shaped structure with a maximum depth of 8 m and it is located on the unbuttressed southern steep flank. We identify intense thermal, fumarole and hydrothermal alteration activities along this horseshoe-shaped structure. We conjecture that hydrothermal alteration may weaken the horseshoe-shaped structure, which then may develop into a failure plane that can lead to gravitational collapse. To test this instability hypothesis, we calculated the factor of safety and ran a numerical model of block-and-ash flow using Titan2D. Results of the factor of safety analysis confirm that intense rainfall events may reduce the internal friction and thus gradually destabilize the dome. The titan2D model suggests that a hypothetical gravitational collapse of the delineated unstable dome sector may travel southward for up to 4 km. This study highlights the relevance of gradual structural weakening of lava domes, which can influence the development fumaroles and hydrothermal alteration activities of cooling lava domes for years after initial emplacement.