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Description: Infrared (IR) data from the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are used to understand cloud-top signatures for growing cumulus clouds prior to known convective initiation (CI) events, or the first occurrence of a ≥35-dBZ echo from a new convective cloud. In the process, this study proposes how MSG IR fields may be used to infer three physical attributes of growing cumuli, cloud depth, cloud-top glaciation, and updraft strength, with limited information redundancy. These three aspects are observed as unique signatures within MSG IR data, for which this study seeks to relate to previous research, as well as develop a new understanding on which subset of IR information best identifies these attributes. Data from 123 subjectively identified CI events observed during the 2007 Convection and Orograpically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) field experiment conducted over southern Germany and northeastern France are processed, per convective cell, to meet this study’s objectives. A total of 67 IR “interest fields” are initially assessed for growing cumulus clouds, with correlation and principal component analyses used to highlight the top 21 fields that are considered the best candidates for describing the three attributes. Using between 6 and 8 fields per category, a method is then proposed on how growing convective clouds may be quantified per 3-km2 pixel (or per cumulus cloud object) toward inferring each attribute. No independent CI-nowcasting analysis is performed, which instead is the subject of ongoing research.

Print ISSN: 1558-8424

Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432

Topics: Geography , Physics

Published by American Meteorological Society

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The Definition of GOES Infrared Lightning Initiation Interest Fields (2010)

Harris, Ryan J. ; Mecikalski, John R. ; MacKenzie, Wayne M. ; [et al.]

American Meteorological Society

In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2010; 49(12): 2527-2543. Published 2010 Dec 01. doi: 10.1175/2010jamc2575.1.

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Publication Date: 2010-12-01

Description: Within cumulus cloud fields that develop in conditionally unstable air masses, only a fraction of the cumuli may eventually develop into deep convection. Identifying which of these convective clouds is most likely to generate lightning often starts with little more than a qualitative visual satellite analysis. The goal of this study is to identify the observed satellite infrared (IR) signatures associated with growing cumulus clouds prior to the first lightning strike, or lightning initiation (LI). This study quantifies the behavior of 10 Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-12 (GOES-12) IR fields of interest in the 1 h in advance of LI. A total of 172 lightning-producing storms, which occurred during the 2009 convective season, are manually tracked and studied over four regions: northern Alabama, central Oklahoma, the Kennedy Space Center, and Washington, D.C. Four-dimensional and cloud-to-ground lightning array data provide a total cloud lightning picture (in-cloud, cloud-to-cloud, cloud-to-air, and cloud-to-ground) and thus precise LI points for each storm in both time and space. Statistical significance tests are conducted on observed trends for each of the 10 LI fields to determine the unique information each field provides in terms of behavior prior to LI. Eight out of 10 LI fields exhibited useful information at least 15 min in advance of LI, with 35 min being the average. Statistical tests on these eight fields are compared for separate large geographical areas. Median IR temperatures and 3.9-μm reflectance values are then determined for all 172 events as an outcome, which may be valuable when implementing a LI prediction algorithm into real-time satellite-based systems.

Print ISSN: 1558-8424

Electronic ISSN: 1558-8432

Topics: Geography , Physics

Published by American Meteorological Society

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Cloud-Top Properties of Growing Cumulus prior to Convective Initiation as Measured by Meteosat Second Generation. Part II: Use of Visible Reflectance (2010)

Mecikalski, John R. ; MacKenzie, Wayne M. ; König, Marianne ; [et al.]

American Meteorological Society

In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2010; 49(12): 2544-2558. Published 2010 Dec 01. doi: 10.1175/2010jamc2480.1.

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Publication Date: 2010-12-01

Description: This study is a companion research effort to “Part I,” which emphasized use of infrared data for understanding various aspects of growing convective clouds in the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite’s Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) imagery. Reflectance and derived brightness variability (BV) fields from MSG SEVIRI are used here to understand relationships between cloud-top signatures and physical processes for growing cumulus clouds prior to known convective initiation (CI) events, or the first occurrence of a ≥35-dBZ echo from a new convective cloud. This study uses daytime SEVIRI visible (VIS) and near-infrared (NIR) reflectances from 0.6 to 3.9 μm (3-km sampling distance), as well as high-resolution visible (1-km sampling distance) fields. Data from 123 CI events observed during the 2007 Convection and Orographically Induced Precipitation Study (COPS) field experiment conducted over southern Germany and northeastern France are processed, per convective cell, so to meet this study’s objectives. These data are those used in Part I. A total of 27 VIS–NIR and BV “interest fields” are initially assessed for growing cumulus clouds, with correlation and principal component analyses used to highlight the fields that contain the most unique information for describing principally cloud-top glaciation, as well as the presence of vigorous updrafts. Time changes in 1.6- and 3.9-μm reflectances, as well as BV in advance of CI, are shown to contain the most unique information related to the formation and increase in size of ice hydrometeors. Several methods are proposed on how results from this analysis may be used to monitor growing convective clouds per MSG pixel or per cumulus cloud “object” over 1-h time frames.

Print ISSN: 1558-8424

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An Enhanced Geostationary Satellite–Based Convective Initiation Algorithm for 0–2-h Nowcasting with Object Tracking (2012)

Walker, John R. ; MacKenzie, Wayne M. ; Mecikalski, John R. ; [et al.]

American Meteorological Society

In: Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology. 2012; 51(11): 1931-1949. Published 2012 Nov 01. doi: 10.1175/jamc-d-11-0246.1.

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Publication Date: 2012-11-01

Description: This paper describes an enhanced 0–2-h convective initiation (CI) nowcasting algorithm known as Satellite Convection Analysis and Tracking, version 2 (SATCASTv2). Tracking of developing cumulus cloud “objects” in advance of CI was developed as a means of reducing errors caused by tracking single satellite pixels of cumulus clouds, as identified in Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) output. The method rests on the idea that cloud objects at one time, when extrapolated forward in space and time using mesoscale atmospheric motion vectors, will overlap with the same actual cloud objects at a later time. Significant overlapping confirms that a coherent cumulus cloud is present and trackable in GOES data and that it is persistent enough that various infrared threshold–based tests may be performed to assess cloud growth. Validation of the new object-tracking approach to nowcasting CI was performed over four regions in the United States: 1) Melbourne, Florida; 2) Memphis, Tennessee; 3) the central United States/Great Plains; and 4) the northeastern United States as a means of evaluating algorithm performance in various convective environments. In this study, 9943 CI nowcasts and 804 CI events were analyzed. Optimal results occurred in the central U.S./Great Plains domain, where the probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm ratio (FAR) reached 85% and 55%, respectively, for tracked cloud objects. The FARs were partially attributed to difficulties inherent to the CI nowcasting problem. PODs were seen to decrease for CI events in Florida. Discussion is provided on how SATCASTv2 performed, as well as on how certain problems may be mitigated, especially in light of enhanced geostationary-satellite systems.

Print ISSN: 1558-8424

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Topics: Geography , Physics

Published by American Meteorological Society

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