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    Is Arctic sea-ice loss under solar-forced Last Interglacial warming (127kyr BP) an analog for the sea-ice loss from greenhouse warming? (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
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    Publication Date: 2023-09-29
    Description: Variations in sea-ice cover result from a combination of changes in external forcing, internal variability and feedbacks. Due to the complexity of the interconnection between the mechanisms involved, the long-term evolution of the Arctic sea ice and its interaction with the ocean and atmosphere is not yet completely understood, leading to large uncertainties in climate projections. In this study, we focus on patterns of sea-ice cover loss in a context of past and future Arctic warming. Using a 7-member global circulation model ensemble from CMIP6/PMIP4, we compare the Arctic sea-ice distribution in a time-slice simulation representing the climate of 127 ka ago and an idealized greenhouse-warmed experiment with a similar annual sea-ice volume. The multi-model ensemble shows similar sea-ice loss patterns in the central Arctic but differences in the Atlantic sector. Under greenhouse-warmed conditions, there is generally more sea ice in south-east of Greenland compared to the Last Interglacial simulation, because of stronger northerly winds pushing ice towards this area. However, in the Barents Sea, the greenhouse warming causes more sea-ice loss than the solar warming. In this case, these is no clear role for the atmosphere. The Atlantic Water inflows are warmer and here we discuss the implication that Atlantification is stronger in the future than is has been during the Last Interglacial.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 2
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    Unravelling the impact of subpolar gyre variability on climate extremes (2023)
    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-07-07
    Description: In this study, we investigate the impact of sea surface temperature variability (SST) in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) on atmospheric circulation patterns and the climate at northern latitudes. We use the EC-Earth3 model (T255~80 km) and conduct four sets of ensemble AMIP-type experiments with four different prescribed SST anomalies, each with 10 members and spanning 35 years from 1980 to 2014. The experiments are designed so that the climatic impact of SST variability in SPG can be separated from other global modes of SST variability.Results show that SST anomalies in the SPG directly affect the atmospheric circulation between 30-75°N and cause zonally-oriented wave-like anomalies. Specifically, a warm SST anomaly in the subpolar gyre causes strong low pressure anomalies over the North Atlantic and the North Pacific Oceans, and results in the warming of regions mainly between 45-60°N, and the cooling of regions primarily between 60-75°N. Our findings indicate that temperature anomalies are especially noticeable in northern America. Furthermore, we explore atmospheric teleconnections and extreme events associated with the SPG variability, as well as its indirect effects through synergy with North Atlantic and North Pacific SSTs. The findings highlight the importance of the SPG for atmospheric circulation, teleconnections, regional climate and extremes.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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