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  • English  (4)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: We describe the main structure and outcomes of the new probabilistic seismic hazard model for Italy, MPS19 [Modello di Pericolosità Sismica, 2019]. Besides to outline the probabilistic framework adopted, the multitude of new data that have been made available after the preparation of the previous MPS04, and the set of earthquake rate and ground motion models used, we give particular emphasis to the main novelties of the modeling and the MPS19 outcomes. Specifically, we (i) introduce a novel approach to estimate and to visualize the epistemic uncertainty over the whole country; (ii) assign weights to each model components (earthquake rate and ground motion models) according to a quantitative testing phase and structured experts’ elicitation sessions; (iii) test (retrospectively) the MPS19 outcomes with the horizontal peak ground acceleration observed in the last decades, and the macroseismic intensities of the last centuries; (iv) introduce a pioneering approach to build MPS19_cluster, which accounts for the effect of earthquakes that have been removed by declustering. Finally, to make the interpretation of MPS19 outcomes easier for a wide range of possible stakeholders, we represent the final result also in terms of probability to exceed 0.15 g in 50 years.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
    Format: application/pdf
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  • 2
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: The 18〈sup〉th〈/sup〉-century European press network functioned in a non-linear way: newspapers tended to publish news from far-off countries rather than those of merely local interest. Thus, some Italian news may be only reported in non-Italian gazettes, or Italian gazettes omit to report some interesting details that reach instead – via the underground network of handwritten reports and diplomatic correspondence – some foreign gazettes. On the other hand, however, exaggerations or outright hoaxes are frequent both in Italian and non-Italian gazettes. In order to understand how journalistic communication functioned and how the traces of some earthquakes were collected and preserved by seismological compilations, we examined the output of several Italian and European gazettes in the months after the great Lisbon earthquake of 1 November 1755. During this period the European press network overflows with reports of the effects of the “big one” in Portugal and abroad, and also publish a spate of news of other earthquakes in Europe and the Mediterranean area. Some - the 9 December 1755 Valais earthquake, the 13 February 1756 Rhodos, and the 18 February Düren earthquakes - were real enough and quite strong too. Others were minor or - in some cases - even wholly fictitious events. Our survey discovers the traces of a few earthquakes still unknown to the current parametric catalogues and allows us to reevaluate an earthquake that turns out to represent the historical maximum for the city of Treviso (Veneto, Italy).
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 3
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    In:  XXVIII General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG)
    Publication Date: 2023-08-29
    Description: The amount of traces that an earthquake may leave in historical records depends on many variables: its size, the relevance (political, economic, and cultural) of the area affected by it, the historical period in which it occurred, the space/time concomitance of other major geopolitical events that may overshadow the earthquake and hinder the production and circulation of information on its effects. If an earthquake is less than destructive and affects a marginal or border area, the likeliness that its memory will be quickly effaced is particularly high in wartime. Such an earthquake occurred during the French phase of the Thirty Years' War (first half of the 17th century) in the Duchy of Savoy, an Alpine region and the main Italian theatre of war. It left only vague traces in a few seismological and historical compilations (Italian and European), none of the European parametric catalogues picked it up. The chance discovery of a short description of its effects in a diplomatic dispatch recently led us to undertake its study. It was no easy feat, given the complexity of the socio-political context of the time, characterized by war events affecting all the territories where this earthquake could have been felt, but the effort was worthwhile because this earthquake currently turns out to be the most significant one in the seismic history of a major industrial city of northern Italy.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2023-01-19
    Description: The goal of the BEECD project is to prepare a basic parametric earthquake catalogue of Europe and a database of primary data, with special reference to long-term seismicity. This paper discusses the background of the project, with special reference to the reasons and the procedures according to which the catalogue and the database will be compiled. In the following the first results of the project are presented: first, procedures and problems in the compilation of the working file, including the analysis of the input catalogues; next, the definition of a tool for classifying the supporting data sets and its application to the entries of the input catalogue for the time-window before 1990, which shows that the average quality of the supporting data is rather poor; finally, some results of earthquake investigation, some potential use and the expected results.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/bookPart
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