ALBERT

Description: The Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlights that climate change and ocean acidification are challenging the sustainable management of living marine resources (LMRs). Formal and systematic treatment of uncertainty in existing LMR projections, however, is lacking. We synthesize knowledge of how to address different sources of uncertainty by drawing from climate model intercomparison efforts. We suggest an ensemble of available models and projections, informed by observations, as a starting point to quantify uncertainties. Such an ensemble must be paired with analysis of the dominant uncertainties over different spatial scales, time horizons, and metrics. We use two examples: (i) global and regional projections of Sea Surface Temperature and (ii) projection of changes in potential catch of sablefish ( Anoplopoma fimbria ) in the 21st century, to illustrate this ensemble model approach to explore different types of uncertainties. Further effort should prioritize understanding dominant, undersampled dimensions of uncertainty, as well as the strategic collection of observations to quantify, and ultimately reduce, uncertainties. Our proposed framework will improve our understanding of future changes in LMR and the resulting risk of impacts to ecosystems and the societies under changing ocean conditions.

Description: Nature Geoscience 9, 395 (2016). doi:10.1038/ngeo2686 Authors: Brian D. Collins & Greg M. Stock

Description: Seismicity was monitored beneath the Krafla central volcano, NE Iceland, between 2009 and 2012 during a period of volcanic quiescence, when most earthquakes occured within the shallow geothermal field. The highest concentration of earthquakes is located close to the rock-melt transition zone as the IDDP-1 wellbore suggests, and decays quickly at greater depths. We recorded multiple swarms of microearthquakes, which coincide often with periods of changes in geothermal field operations, and found that about one third of the total number of earthquakes are repeating events. The event size distribution, evaluated within the central caldera, indicates average crustal values with b = 0.79 ± 0.04. No significant spatial b -value contrasts are resolved within the geothermal field nor in the vicinity of the drilled melt. Besides the seismicity analysis, focal mechanisms are calculated for 342 events. Most of these short-period events have source radiation patterns consistent with double-couple (DC) mechanisms. A few events are attributed to non-shear faulting mechanisms with geothermal fluids likely playing an important role in their source processes. Diverse faulting styles are inferred from DC events, but normal faulting prevails in the central caldera. The best-fitting compressional and tensional axes of DC mechanisms are interpreted in terms of the principal stress or deformation-rate orientations across the plate boundary rift. Maximum compressive stress directions are near-vertically aligned in different study volumes, as expected in an extensional tectonic setting. Beneath the natural geothermal fields, the least compressive stress axis is found to align with the regional spreading direction. In the main geothermal field both horizontal stresses appear to have similar magnitudes causing a diversity of focal mechanisms.

Description: ABSTRACT A series of radiocarbon dates from two Epipalaeolithic sites – Kharaneh IV and Ayn Qasiyya – in the Azraq Basin of eastern Jordan provide a new perspective on the chronology and settlement patterns of this part of southwest Asia during the Late Pleistocene. We discuss the implications to our understanding of the chronology of Late Pleistocene lithic industries, particularly in regard to current hypotheses for the abandonment of eastern Jordan's ‘mega-sites’, Kharaneh IV and Jilat 6. Modelling a series of accelerator mass spectrometry dates from Kharaneh IV indicates a much shorter span of occupation for the site than previously assumed by the size and density of its deposits. Given the high density of material accumulated over a relatively short time span, we show that Kharaneh IV was an aggregation site occupied intensively by a significant number of people, providing new perspectives on the east Jordanian phenomenon of Epipalaeolithic ‘mega-sites’.

Description: Apatite incorporates variable and significant amounts of halogens (mainly F and Cl) in its crystal structure which can be used to determine the initial F and Cl concentrations of magmas. The amount of chlorine in the apatite lattice also exerts an important compositional control on the degree of fission track annealing. Chlorine measurements in apatite have conventionally required electron probe microanalysis (EPMA). Laser ablation-inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) is increasingly used in apatite fission-track dating to determine U concentrations and also in simultaneous U-Pb dating and trace element measurements of apatite. Apatite Cl measurements by ICP-MS would remove the need for EPMA but the high (12.97 eV) first ionisation potential makes analysis challenging. Apatite Cl data were acquired using two analytical set-ups: a Resonetics M-50 193 nm ArF Excimer laser coupled to an Agilent 7700x quadrupole ICP-MS (using a 26 μm spot with an 8 Hz repetition rate) and a Photon Machines Analyte Excite 193 nm ArF Excimer laser coupled to a Thermo Scientific iCAP Qc (using a 30 μm spot with a 4 Hz repetition rate). Chlorine concentrations were determined by LA-ICP-MS (1140 analyses in total) for nineteen apatite occurrences, and there is a comprehensive EPMA Cl and F dataset for thirteen of the apatite samples. The apatite sample suite includes different compositions representative of the range likely to be encountered in natural apatites, along with extreme variants including two end-member chlorapatites. Between twenty-six and thirty-nine isotopes were determined in each apatite sample corresponding to a typical analytical protocol for integrated apatite fission track (U and Cl contents) and U-Pb dating, along with REE and trace element measurements. 35 Cl backgrounds (present mainly in the argon gas) were ~ 45–65 kcps in the first set-up and ~ 4 kcps in the second set-up. 35 Cl background-corrected signals ranged from ~ 0 cps in end-member fluorapatite to up to ~ 90 kcps in end-member chlorapatite. Use of a collision cell in both analytical set-ups decreased the low mass sensitivity by approximately an order of magnitude without improving the 35 Cl signal to background ratio. A minor Ca isotope was used as the internal standard to correct for drift in instrument sensitivity and variations in ablation volume during sessions. The 35 Cl/ 43 Ca values for each apatite (10–20 analyses each) when plotted against the EPMA Cl concentrations yield excellently constrained calibration relationships, demonstrating the suitability of the analytical protocol and that routine apatite Cl measurements by ICP-MS are achievable. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Description: Numerical models of ocean biogeochemistry are relied upon to make projections about the impact of climate change on marine resources and test hypotheses regarding the drivers of past changes in climate and ecosystems. In large areas of the ocean, iron availability regulates the functioning of marine ecosystems and hence the ocean carbon cycle. Accordingly, our ability to quantify the drivers and impacts of fluctuations in ocean ecosystems and carbon cycling in space and time relies on first achieving an appropriate representation of the modern marine iron cycle in models. When the iron distributions from thirteen global ocean biogeochemistry models are compared against the latest oceanic sections from the GEOTRACES programme we find that all models struggle to reproduce many aspects of the observed spatial patterns. Models that reflect the emerging evidence for multiple iron sources or subtleties of its internal cycling perform much better in capturing observed features than their simpler contemporaries, particularly in the ocean interior. We show that the substantial uncertainty in the input fluxes of iron results in a very wide range of residence times across models, which has implications for the response of ecosystems and global carbon cycling to perturbations. Given this large uncertainty, iron-fertilisation experiments based on any single current generation model should be interpreted with caution. Improvements to how such models represent iron scavenging and also biological cycling are needed to raise confidence in their projections of global biogeochemical change in the ocean.

Description: Current global inventories of ammonia emissions identify the ocean as the largest natural source. This source depends on seawater pH, temperature, and the concentration of total seawater ammonia ( NH x ( sw )), which reflects a balance between remineralization of organic matter, uptake by plankton, and nitrification. Here, we compare [ NH x ( sw )] from two global ocean biogeochemical models (BEC and COBALT) against extensive ocean observations. Simulated [ NH x ( sw )] are generally biased high. Improved simulation can be achieved in COBALT by increasing the plankton affinity for NH x within observed ranges. The resulting global ocean emissions is 2.5 TgN a −1 , much lower than current literature values(7–23 TgN a −1 ), including the widely used GEIA inventory (8 TgN a −1 ). Such a weak ocean source implies that continental sources contribute more than half of atmospheric NH x over most of the ocean in the Northern hemisphere. Ammonia emitted from oceanic sources is insufficient to neutralize sulfate aerosol acidity, consistent with observations. There is evidence over the Equatorial Pacific for a missing source of atmospheric ammonia that could be due to photolysis of marine organic nitrogen at the ocean surface or in the atmosphere. Accommodating this possible missing source yields a global ocean emission of ammonia in the range 2–5 TgN a −1 , comparable in magnitude to other natural sources from open fires and soils.

Description: Future projections of potential ocean ecosystem stressors, such as acidification, warming, deoxygenation and changes in ocean productivity, are uncertain due to incomplete understanding of fundamental processes, internal climate variability, and divergent carbon emissions scenarios. This complicates climate change impact assessments. We evaluate the relative importance of these uncertainty sources in projections of potential stressors as a function of projection lead-time and spatial scale. Internally generated climate variability is the dominant source of uncertainty in mid-to-low latitudes and in most coastal Large Marine Ecosystems over the next few decades, suggesting irreducible uncertainty inherent in these short projections. Uncertainty in projections of century-scale global sea surface temperature (SST), global thermocline oxygen, and regional surface pH is dominated by scenario uncertainty, highlighting the critical importance of policy decisions on carbon emissions. In contrast, uncertainty in century-scale projections of net primary productivity (NPP), low oxygen waters, and Southern Ocean SST is dominated by model uncertainty, underscoring the importance of overcoming deficiencies in scientific understanding and improved process representation in Earth system models are critical for making more robust projections of these potential stressors. We also show that changes in the combined potential stressors emerge from the noise in 39% (34 – 44%) of the ocean by 2016-2035 relative to the 1986-2005 reference period and in 54% (50 – 60%) of the ocean by 2076-2095 following a high carbon emissions scenario. Projected large changes in surface pH and SST can be reduced substantially and rapidly with aggressive carbon emission mitigation, but only marginally for oxygen. The regional importance of model uncertainty and internal variability underscores the need for expanded and improved multi-model and large initial condition ensemble projections with Earth system models for evaluating regional marine resource impacts.

Description: Reversibility studies suggest a lagged recovery of global mean sea surface temperatures after mitigation, raising the question of whether a similar lag is likely for marine net primary production (NPP). Here we assess NPP reversibility with a mitigation scenario in which projected Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5) forcings are applied out to 2100, and then reversed over the course of the following century in a fully coupled carbon-climate earth system model. In contrast to the temperature lag, we find a rapid increase in global mean NPP, including an overshoot to values above contemporary means. The enhanced NPP arises from a transient imbalance between the cooling surface ocean and continued warming in subsurface waters, which weakens upper ocean density gradients, resulting in deeper mixing and enhanced surface nitrate. We also find a marine ecosystem regime shift as persistent silicate depletion results in increased prevalence of large, non-diatom phytoplankton.

Description: We studied the seismic velocity structure beneath the Krafla central volcano, NE Iceland, by performing 3D tomographic inversions of 1453 earthquakes recorded by a temporary local seismic network between 2009-2012. The seismicity is concentrated primarily around the Leirhnjúkur geothermal field near the center of the Krafla caldera. To obtain robust velocity models, we incorporated active seismic data from previous surveys. The Krafla central volcano has a relatively complex velocity structure with higher P-wave velocities (Vp) underneath regions of higher topographic relief and two distinct low-Vp anomalies beneath the Leirhnjúkur geothermal field. The latter match well with two attenuating bodies inferred from S-wave shadows during the Krafla rifting episode of 1974-1985. Within the Leirhnjúkur geothermal reservoir, we resolved a shallow (-0.5-0.5 km bsl) region with low-Vp/Vs values and a deeper (0.5-1.5 km bsl) high-Vp/Vs zone. We interpret the difference in the velocity ratios of the two zones to be caused by higher rock porosities and crack densities in the shallow region and lower porosities and crack densities in the deeper region. A strong low-Vp/Vs anomaly underlies these zones, where a super-heated steam zone within felsic rock overlies rhyolitic melt.