ALBERT

Description: Aerosols interact with radiation and clouds. Substantial progress made over the past 40 years in observing, understanding, and modeling these processes helped quantify the imbalance in the Earth's radiation budget caused by anthropogenic aerosols, called aerosol radiative forcing, but uncertainties remain large. This review provides a new range of aerosol radiative forcing over the industrial era based on multiple, traceable, and arguable lines of evidence, including modeling approaches, theoretical considerations, and observations. Improved understanding of aerosol absorption and the causes of trends in surface radiative fluxes constrain the forcing from aerosol-radiation interactions. A robust theoretical foundation and convincing evidence constrain the forcing caused by aerosol-driven increases in liquid cloud droplet number concentration. However, the influence of anthropogenic aerosols on cloud liquid water content and cloud fraction is less clear, and the influence on mixed-phase and ice clouds remains poorly constrained. Observed changes in surface temperature and radiative fluxes provide additional constraints. These multiple lines of evidence lead to a 68% confidence interval for the total aerosol effective radiative forcing of -1.6 to -0.6 W m−2, or -2.0 to -0.4 W m−2 with a 90% likelihood. Those intervals are of similar width to the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment but shifted toward more negative values. The uncertainty will narrow in the future by continuing to critically combine multiple lines of evidence, especially those addressing industrial-era changes in aerosol sources and aerosol effects on liquid cloud amount and on ice clouds. Key Points: - An assessment of multiple lines of evidence supported by a conceptual model provides ranges for aerosol radiative forcing of climate change - Aerosol effective radiative forcing is assessed to be between -1.6 and -0.6 W m−2 at the 16–84% confidence level - Although key uncertainties remain, new ways of using observations provide stronger constraints for models

Description: Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a key technology to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial processes in a feasible, substantial, and timely manner. For geological CO2 storage to be safe, reliable, and accepted by society, robust strategies for CO2 leakage detection, quantification and management are crucial. The STEMM-CCS (Strategies for Environmental Monitoring of Marine Carbon Capture and Storage) project aimed to provide techniques and understanding to enable and inform cost-effective monitoring of CCS sites in the marine environment. A controlled CO2 release experiment was carried out in the central North Sea, designed to mimic an unintended emission of CO2 from a subsurface CO2 storage site to the seafloor. A total of 675 kg of CO2 were released into the shallow sediments (~3 m 49 below seafloor), at flow rates between 6 and 143 kg/d. A combination of novel techniques, adapted versions of existing techniques, and well-proven standard techniques were used to detect, characterise and quantify gaseous and dissolved CO2 in the sediments and the overlying seawater. This paper provides an overview of this ambitious field experiment. We describe the preparatory work prior to the release experiment, the experimental layout and procedures, the methods tested, and summarise the main results and the lessons learnt.

Description: The Southern Ocean greatly contributes to the regulation of the global climate by controlling important heat and carbon exchanges between the atmosphere and the ocean. Rates of climate change on decadal timescales are therefore impacted by oceanic processes taking place in the Southern Ocean, yet too little is known about these processes. Limitations come both from the lack of observations in this extreme environment and its inherent sensitivity to intermittent processes at scales that are not well captured in current Earth system models. The Southern Ocean Carbon and Heat Impact on Climate programme was launched to address this knowledge gap, with the overall objective to understand and quantify variability of heat and carbon budgets in the Southern Ocean through an investigation of the key physical processes controlling exchanges between the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice using a combination of observational and modelling approaches. Here, we provide a brief overview of the programme, as well as a summary of some of the scientific progress achieved during its first half. Advances range from new evidence of the importance of specific processes in Southern Ocean ventilation rate (e.g. storm-induced turbulence, sea-ice meltwater fronts, wind-induced gyre circulation, dense shelf water formation and abyssal mixing) to refined descriptions of the physical changes currently ongoing in the Southern Ocean and of their link with global climate.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Description: The carbon balance of peatlands is predicted to shift from a sink to a source this century. However, peatland ecosystems are still omitted from the main Earth system models that are used for future climate change projections, and they are not considered in integrated assessment models that are used in impact and mitigation studies. By using evidence synthesized from the literature and an expert elicitation, we define and quantify the leading drivers of change that have impacted peatland carbon stocks during the Holocene and predict their effect during this century and in the far future. We also identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps in the scientific community and provide insight towards better integration of peatlands into modelling frameworks. Given the importance of the contribution by peatlands to the global carbon cycle, this study shows that peatland science is a critical research area and that we still have a long way to go to fully understand the peatland–carbon–climate nexus.

Description: We present a new set of global and local sea‐level projections at example tide gauge locations under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios. Compared to the CMIP5‐based sea‐level projections presented in IPCC AR5, we introduce a number of methodological innovations, including: (i) more comprehensive treatment of uncertainties; (ii) direct traceability between global and local projections; (iii) exploratory extended projections to 2300 based on emulation of individual CMIP5 models. Combining the projections with observed tide gauge records, we explore the contribution to total variance that arises from sea‐level variability, different emissions scenarios and model uncertainty. For the period out to 2300 we further breakdown the model uncertainty by sea‐level component and consider the dependence on geographic location, time horizon and emissions scenario. Our analysis highlights the importance of variability for sea‐level change in the coming decades and the potential value of annual‐to‐decadal predictions of local sea‐level change. Projections to 2300 show a substantial degree of committed sea‐level rise under all emissions scenarios considered and highlights the reduced future risk associated with RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5. Tide gauge locations can show large (〉 50%) departures from the global average, in some cases even reversing the sign of the change. While uncertainty in projections of the future Antarctic ice dynamic response tends to dominate post‐2100, we see a substantial differences in the breakdown of model variance as a function of location, timescale and emissions scenario.

Description: International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 385 drilled organic-rich sediments with sill intrusions on the flanking regions and in the northern axial graben in Guaymas Basin, a young marginal rift basin in the Gulf of California. Guaymas Basin is characterized by a widely distributed, intense heat flow and widespread off-axis magmatism expressed by a dense network of sill intrusions across the flanking regions, which is in contrast to classical mid-ocean ridge spreading centers. The numerous off-axis sills provide multiple transient heat sources that mobilize buried sedimentary carbon, in part as methane and other hydrocarbons, and drive hydrothermal circulation. The resulting thermal and geochemical gradients shape abundance, composition, and activity of the deep subsurface biosphere of the basin. Drill sites extend over the flanking regions of Guaymas Basin, covering a distance of ~81 km from the from the northwest to the southeast. Adjacent Sites U1545 and U1546 recovered the oldest and thickest sediment successions (to ~540 meters below seafloor [mbsf]; equivalent to the core depth below seafloor, Method A [CSF-A] scale), one with a thin sill (a few meters in thickness) near the drilled bottom (Site U1545), and one with a massive, deeply buried sill (~356–430 mbsf) that chemically and physically affects the surrounding sediments (Site U1546). Sites U1547 and U1548, located in the central part of the northern Guaymas Basin segment, were drilled to investigate a 600 m wide circular mound (bathymetric high) and its periphery. The dome-like structure is outlined by a ring of active vent sites called Ringvent. It is underlain by a remarkably thick sill at shallow depth (Site U1547). Hydrothermal gradients steepen at the Ringvent periphery (Holes U1548A–U1548C), which in turn shifts the zones of authigenic carbonate precipitation and of highest microbial cell abundance toward shallower depths. The Ringvent sill was drilled several times and yielded remarkably diverse igneous rock textures, sediment–sill interfaces, and hydrothermal alteration, reflected by various secondary minerals in veins and vesicles. Thus, the Ringvent sill became the target of an integrated sampling and interdisciplinary research effort that included geological, geochemical, and microbiological specialties. The thermal, lithologic, geochemical, and microbiological contrasts between the two deep northwestern sites (U1545 and U1546) and the Ringvent sites (U1547 and U1548) form the scientific centerpiece of the expedition. These observations are supplemented by results from sites that represent attenuated cold seepage conditions in the central basin (Site U1549), complex and disturbed sediments overlying sills in the northern axial trough (Site U1550), terrigenous sedimentation events on the southeastern flanking regions (Site U1551), and hydrate occurrence in shallow sediments proximal to the Sonora margin (Site U1552). The scientific outcomes of Expedition 385 will (1) revise long-held assumptions about the role of sill emplacement in subsurface carbon mobilization versus carbon retention, (2) comprehensively examine the subsurface biosphere of Guaymas Basin and its responses and adaptations to hydrothermal conditions, (3) redefine hydrothermal controls of authigenic mineral formation in sediments, and (4) yield new insights into many geochemical and geophysical aspects of both architecture and sill–sediment interaction in a nascent spreading center. The generally high quality and high degree of completeness of the shipboard datasets present opportunities for interdisciplinary and multidisciplinary collaborations during shore-based studies. In comparison to Deep Sea Drilling Project Leg 64 to Guaymas Basin in 1979, sophisticated drilling strategies (for example, the advanced piston corer [APC] and half-length APC systems) and numerous analytical innovations have greatly improved sample recovery and scientific yield, particularly in the areas of organic geochemistry and microbiology. For example, microbial genomics did not exist 40 y ago. However, these technical refinements do not change the fact that Expedition 385 will in many respects build on the foundations laid by Leg 64 for understanding Guaymas Basin, regardless of whether adjustments are required in the near future.

Description: A dramatic reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions is necessary to achieve climate change targets. Wide ranging measures are required to reduce emissions with carbon capture and storage forming a vital component. Current carbon sequestration occurs in volumes of Mt/a into dominantly sedimentary reservoir rocks. Pilot tests have demonstrated that basalt reservoirs provide an alternative and permanent carbon capture scenario (e.g. Carbfix project). Here, we use 2D and 3D seismic data combined with well data to identify and map potential permanent and safe carbon storage reservoirs in offshore basalt sequences in the NE Atlantic. Well data support the presence of reservoir properties within extrusive basaltic sequences with porous lava flow tops and volcaniclastic lithologies comprising the most prolific sequestration targets. The basalt sequences are overlaid by several hundred meters of Cenozoic sediments with sealing properties, consisting mainly of marine shales and glaciogenic sediments. We hypothesize that offshore CO2 sequestration into porous basaltic lava flows may allow permanent CO2 sequestration of several gigatons per year, however more research and testing is needed to verify this potential.

Description: Key Points: - Fluid flow is focused along Nootka Fault traces resulting in shallow bright spots - Two seafloor mounds are the result of basaltic intrusions in the Nootka Fault zone - Gas hydrates occur at the Nootka Slope and are imaged seismically as bottom- simulating reflectors suggesting a regional heat-flow of ~80 mW/m2 along the slope Abstract Geophysical and geochemical data indicate there is abundant fluid expulsion in the Nootka fault zone (NFZ) between the Juan de Fuca and Explorer plates and the Nootka continental slope. Here we combine observations from 〉 20 years of investigations to demonstrate the nature of fluid‐flow along the NFZ, which is the seismically most active region off Vancouver Island. Seismicity reaching down to the upper mantle is linked to near‐seafloor manifestation of fluid flow through a network of faults. Along the two main fault traces, seismic reflection data imaged bright spots 100 – 300 m below seafloor that lie above changes in basement topography. The bright spots are conformable to sediment layering, show opposite‐to‐seafloor reflection polarity, and are associated with frequency‐reduction and velocity push‐down indicating the presence of gas in the sediments. Two seafloor mounds ~15 km seaward of the Nootka slope are underlain by deep, non‐conformable high amplitude reflective zones. Measurements in the water column above one mound revealed a plume of warm water, and bottom‐video observations imaged hydrothermal vent system biota. Pore fluids from a core at this mound contain predominately microbial methane (C1) with a high proportion of ethane (C2) yielding C1/C2 ratios 〈 500 indicating a possible slight contribution from a deep source. We infer the reflective zones beneath the two mounds are basaltic intrusions that create hydrothermal circulation within the overlying sediments. Across the Nootka continental slope, gas hydrate related bottom‐simulating reflectors are widespread and occur at depths indicating heat‐flow values of 80 – 90 mW/m2.

Description: The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a key mechanism of heat, freshwater, and carbon redistribution in the climate system. The precept that the AMOC has changed abruptly in the past, notably during and at the end of the last ice age, and that it is “very likely” to weaken in the coming century due to anthropogenic climate change is a key motivation for sustained observations of the AMOC. This paper reviews the methodology and technology used to observe the AMOC and assesses these ideas and systems for accuracy, shortcomings, potential improvements, and sustainability. We review hydrographic techniques and look at how these traditional techniques can meet modern requirements. Transport mooring arrays (TMAs) provide the “gold standard” for sustained AMOC observing, utilizing dynamic height, current meter, and other instrumentation and techniques to produce continuous observations of the AMOC. We consider the principle of these systems and how they can be sustained and improved into the future. Techniques utilizing indirect measurements, such as satellite altimetry, coupled with in situ measurements, such as the Argo float array, are also discussed. Existing technologies that perhaps have not been fully exploited for estimating AMOC are reviewed and considered for this purpose. Technology is constantly evolving, and we look to the future of technology and how it can be deployed for sustained and expanded AMOC measurements. Finally, all of these methodologies and technologies are considered with a view to a sustained and sustainable future for AMOC observation.