ALBERT

Description: 〈jats:p〉Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesize data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFOS) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-use and land-use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly, and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO2 products. The terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence on land and ocean sinks are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, and Earth system models. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the year 2022, EFOS increased by 0.9 % relative to 2021, with fossil emissions at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 Gt C yr−1 when the cement carbonation sink is not included), and ELUC was 1.2±0.7 Gt C yr−1, for a total anthropogenic CO2 emission (including the cement carbonation sink) of 11.1±0.8 Gt C yr−1 (40.7±3.2 Gt CO2 yr−1). Also, for 2022, GATM was 4.6±0.2 Gt C yr−1 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; ppm denotes parts per million), SOCEAN was 2.8±0.4 Gt C yr−1, and SLAND was 3.8±0.8 Gt C yr−1, with a BIM of −0.1 Gt C yr−1 (i.e. total estimated sources marginally too low or sinks marginally too high). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2023 suggest an increase in EFOS relative to 2022 of +1.1 % (0.0 % to 2.1 %) globally and atmospheric CO2 concentration reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean of and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2022, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 Gt C yr−1 persist for the representation of annual to semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows the following: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use changes emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the strength of the ocean sink over the last decade. This living-data update documents changes in methods and data sets applied to this most recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023). 〈/jats:p〉

Description: The development of algorithms for remote sensing of water quality (RSWQ) requires a large amount of in situ data to account for the bio-geo-optical diversity of inland and coastal waters. The GLObal Reflectance community dataset for Imaging and optical sensing of Aquatic environments (GLORIA) includes 7,572 curated hyperspectral remote sensing reflectance measurements at 1 nm intervals within the 350 to 900 nm wavelength range. In addition, at least one co-located water quality measurement of chlorophyll a, total suspended solids, absorption by dissolved substances, and Secchi depth, is provided. The data were contributed by researchers affiliated with 59 institutions worldwide and come from 450 different water bodies, making GLORIA the de-facto state of knowledge of in situ coastal and inland aquatic optical diversity. Each measurement is documented with comprehensive methodological details, allowing users to evaluate fitness-for-purpose, and providing a reference for practitioners planning similar measurements. We provide open and free access to this dataset with the goal of enabling scientific and technological advancement towards operational regional and global RSWQ monitoring.

Description: An author of the paper was omitted in the original version (Ted Conroy, University of Waikato, New Zealand). This has been corrected in the pdf and HTML versions of the paper, and the associated metadata.

Description: This draft White Paper has been prepared as part of the Vision 2030 process being undertaken in the framework of the UN Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development. The Vision 2030 process aims to achieve a common and tangible measure of success for each of the ten Ocean Decade Challenges by 2030. From a starting point of existing initiatives underway in the Ocean Decade and beyond, and through a lens of priority user needs, the process determines priority datasets, critical gaps in science and knowledge, and needs in capacity development, infrastructure and technology required for each Challenge to ensure that it can be fulfilled by the end of the Ocean Decade in 2030. The results of the process will contribute to the scoping of future Decade Actions, identification of resource mobilization priorities, and ensuring the ongoing relevance of the Challenges over time. The process identifies achievable recommendations that can be implemented in the context of the Decade, or more broadly before 2030 to achieve the identified strategic ambition and indicators that will be used to measure progress. This draft White Paper is one of a series of ten White Papers all of which have been authored by an expert Working Group. Accompanied by a synthesis report authored by the Decade Coordination Unit, this white paper was discussed at the 2024 Ocean Decade Conference (Barcelona. Spain). Input received from diverse groups through public consultation and at the Conference was reviewed and incorporated as relevant.

Description: Published

Description: Refereed

Description: By 2030, successful achievement of Ocean Decade Challenge No. 6 will require demonstrating substantial advancements within the global community towards enhancing their resilience to coastal and ocean hazards. This includes implementing two crucial elements: (1) establishing comprehensive 'people-centered' early warning systems capable of addressing multiple hazards, and (2) devising adaptation strategies that specifically target risks associated with the ocean, including those linked to climate change. These endeavours will play a pivotal role in guiding sustainable practices in ocean planning. Success will also hinge on addressing critical gaps in scientific understanding and knowledge across important components such as risk assessment and risk reduction, in addition to putting in place robust institutional mechanisms for implanting novel solutions that contribute to coastal resilience. Some key elements to be addressed in this context include: (i) gathering and generating observational and modelling datasets relevant to risk assessment, including downscaled climate scenarios for coastal regions, within robust data-sharing frameworks; (ii) promoting interdisciplinary and international research and innovation to tackle challenges comprehensively, with a focus on methodologies like Digital Twin approaches; (iii) improving standards for risk communication at both national and international levels; (iv) fostering partnerships at various scales involving local communities, public and private disaster risk reduction entities, governmental bodies, and academic institutions; (v) building capacity in research and communication to cultivate a shared understanding of coastal resilience strategies; and (vi) enhancing resilient infrastructure and promoting sustainable resource management along coastlines. It is imperative to establish partnerships with existing international UN programs dedicated to disaster risk reduction and coastal resilience. Strengthening connections with UN Decade Actions through Decade Coordination Offices and Decade Collaboration Centers is of utmost importance for effective coordination and collaboration. Based on the above strategic ambition it is also suggested that the formulation of the Ocean Decade Challenge could be modified as follows: Increase community resilience to ocean and coastal risks

Description: Published

Description: Refereed

Description: Very-long-baseline interferometry (VLBI) observations of active galactic nuclei at millimetre wavelengths have the power to reveal the launching and initial collimation region of extragalactic radio jets, down to 10–100 gravitational radii (rg ≡ GM/c2) scales in nearby sources1. Centaurus A is the closest radio-loud source to Earth2. It bridges the gap in mass and accretion rate between the supermassive black holes (SMBHs) in Messier 87 and our Galactic Centre. A large southern declination of −43° has, however, prevented VLBI imaging of Centaurus A below a wavelength of 1 cm thus far. Here we show the millimetre VLBI image of the source, which we obtained with the Event Horizon Telescope at 228 GHz. Compared with previous observations3, we image the jet of Centaurus A at a tenfold higher frequency and sixteen times sharper resolution and thereby probe sub-lightday structures. We reveal a highly collimated, asymmetrically edge-brightened jet as well as the fainter counterjet. We find that the source structure of Centaurus A resembles the jet in Messier 87 on ~500 rg scales remarkably well. Furthermore, we identify the location of Centaurus A’s SMBH with respect to its resolved jet core at a wavelength of 1.3 mm and conclude that the source’s event horizon shadow4 should be visible at terahertz frequencies. This location further supports the universal scale invariance of black holes over a wide range of masses5,6.

Description: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a hematological malignancy with an undefined heritable risk. Here we perform a meta-analysis of three genome-wide association studies, with replication in a fourth study, incorporating a total of 4018 AML cases and 10488 controls. We identify a genome-wide significant risk locus for AML at 11q13.2 (rs4930561; P = 2.15 × 10−8; KMT5B). We also identify a genome-wide significant risk locus for the cytogenetically normal AML sub-group (N = 1287) at 6p21.32 (rs3916765; P = 1.51 × 10−10; HLA). Our results inform on AML etiology and identify putative functional genes operating in histone methylation (KMT5B) and immune function (HLA).

Description: Prevention of viral escape and increased coverage against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern require therapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) targeting multiple sites of vulnerability on the coronavirus spike glycoprotein. Here we identify several potent neutralizing antibodies directed against either the N-terminal domain (NTD) or the receptor-binding domain (RBD) of the spike protein. Administered in combinations, these mAbs provided low-dose protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection in the K18-human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 mouse model, using both neutralization and Fc effector antibody functions. The RBD mAb WRAIR-2125, which targets residue F486 through a unique heavy-chain and light-chain pairing, demonstrated potent neutralizing activity against all major SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern. In combination with NTD and other RBD mAbs, WRAIR-2125 also prevented viral escape. These data demonstrate that NTD/RBD mAb combinations confer potent protection, likely leveraging complementary mechanisms of viral inactivation and clearance.

Description: In contrast to the well-recognized permafrost carbon (C) feedback to climate change, the fate of permafrost nitrogen (N) after thaw is poorly understood. According to mounting evidence, part of the N liberated from permafrost may be released to the atmosphere as the strong greenhouse gas (GHG) nitrous oxide (N2O). Here, we report post-thaw N2O release from late Pleistocene permafrost deposits called Yedoma, which store a substantial part of permafrost C and N and are highly vulnerable to thaw. While freshly thawed, unvegetated Yedoma in disturbed areas emit little N2O, emissions increase within few years after stabilization, drying and revegetation with grasses to high rates (548 (133–6286) μg N m−2 day−1; median with (range)), exceeding by 1–2 orders of magnitude the typical rates from permafrost-affected soils. Using targeted metagenomics of key N cycling genes, we link the increase in in situ N2O emissions with structural changes of the microbial community responsible for N cycling. Our results highlight the importance of extra N availability from thawing Yedoma permafrost, causing a positive climate feedback from the Arctic in the form of N2O emissions.

Description: The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.