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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Simulating Seismicity in a Fault Network Model: the Effect of Interaction on Event Statistics
    Description: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), Rome, Italy Institute of Statistical Mathematics (ISM), Tokyo, Japan Swiss Seismological Service, Institute of Geophysics (ETH), Zürich, Switzerland
    Description: Unpublished
    Description: Erice, Italy
    Description: open
    Keywords: Fault Model ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: Oral presentation
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: We investigate controls on tsunami generation and propagation in the near-field of great megathrust earthquakes using a series of numerical simulations of subduction and tsunamigenesis on the Sumatran forearc. The Sunda megathrust here is advanced in its seismic cycle and may be ready for another great earthquake. We calculate the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave heights for about 100 complex earthquake ruptures whose synthesis was informed by reference to geodetic and stress accumulation studies. Remarkably, results show that, for any near-field location: (1) the timing of tsunami inundation is independent of slipdistribution on the earthquake or even of its magnitude, and (2) the maximum wave height is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic displacement experienced at that location. Both observations are explained by the dominance of long wavelength crustal flexure in near-field tsunamigenesis. The results show, for the first time, that a single estimate of vertical coseismic displacement might provide a reliable short-term forecast of the maximum height of tsunami waves.
    Description: Published
    Description: L14316
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Sumatra ; earthquake ; tsunami ; megathrust ; hazard ; forecasting ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Several independent indicators imply a high probability of a great (MN8) earthquake rupture of the subduction megathrust 14 under the Mentawai Islands of West Sumatra. The human consequences of such an event depend crucially on its tsunamigenic 15 potential, which in turn depends on unpredictable details of slip distribution on the megathrust and how resulting seafloor 16 movements and the propagating tsunami waves interact with bathymetry. Here we address the forward problem by modelling about 17 1000 possible complex earthquake ruptures and calculating the seafloor displacements and tsunami wave height distributions that 18 would result from the most likely 100 or so, as judged by reference to paleogeodetic data. Additionally we carry out a systematic 19 study of the importance of the location of maximum slip with respect to the morphology of the fore-arc complex. Our results 20 indicate a generally smaller regional tsunami hazard than was realised in Aceh during the December 2004 event, though more than 21 20% of simulations result in tsunami wave heights of more than 5 m for the southern Sumatran cities of Padang and Bengkulu. The 22 extreme events in these simulations produce results which are consistent with recent deterministic studies. The study confirms the 23 sensitivity of predicted wave heights to the distribution of slip even for events with similar moment and reproduces Plafker's rule of 24 thumb. Additionally we show that the maximum wave height observed at a single location scales with the magnitude though data 25 for all magnitudes exhibit extreme variability. Finally, we show that for any coastal location in the near field of the earthquake, 26 despite the complexity of the earthquake rupture simulations and the large range of magnitudes modelled, the timing of inundation 27 is constant to first order and the maximum height of the modelled waves is directly proportional to the vertical coseismic 28 displacement experienced at that point. These results may assist in developing tsunami preparedness strategies around the Indian 29 Ocean and in particular along the coasts of western Sumatra.
    Description: In press
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: tsunami ; Sumatra ; megathrust ; earthquake ; hazard ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.03. Earthquake source and dynamics
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: manuscript
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: The MW 8.8 mega-thrust earthquake and tsunami that occurred on February 27, 2010, offshore Maule region, Chile, was not unexpected. A clearly identified seismic gap existed in an area where tectonic loading has been accumulating since the great 1835 earthquake experienced and described by Darwin during the voyage of the Beagle. Here we jointly invert tsunami and geodetic data (InSAR, GPS, land-level changes), to derive a robust model for the co-seismic slip distribution and induced co-seismic stress changes, and compare them to past earthquakes and the pre-seismic locking distribution. We aim to assess if the Maule earthquake has filled the Darwin gap, decreasing the probability of a future shock . We find that the main slip patch is located to the north of the gap, overlapping the rupture zone of the MW 8.0 1928 earthquake, and that a secondary concentration of slip occurred to the south; the Darwin gap was only partially filled and a zone of high pre-seismic locking remains unbroken. This observation is not consistent with the assumption that distributions of seismic rupture might be correlated with pre-seismic locking, potentially allowing the anticipation of slip distributions in seismic gaps. Moreover, increased stress on this unbroken patch might have increased the probability of another major to great earthquake there in the near future.
    Description: Published
    Description: 173-177
    Description: 3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
    Description: 4.2. TTC - Modelli per la stima della pericolosità sismica a scala nazionale
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Source process ; Chile ; Tsunami ; Joint Inversion ; Seismic Gap ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.05. Stress ; 04. Solid Earth::04.07. Tectonophysics::04.07.06. Subduction related processes ; 05. General::05.01. Computational geophysics::05.01.03. Inverse methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1520-4995
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    s.l. : American Chemical Society
    Journal of the American Chemical Society 98 (1976), S. 5044-5046 
    ISSN: 1520-5126
    Source: ACS Legacy Archives
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Pure and applied geophysics 152 (1998), S. 23-35 
    ISSN: 1420-9136
    Keywords: Key words: Analogue model, large earthquakes, recurrence behaviour, lognormal distribution.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract —The recurrence behaviour of large earthquakes, in several tectonic settings, has been explained by simple models of stress accumulation and release which assume that the fault stress state is solely a function of the far-field tectonic strain rate. However, the limited dataset of large event recurrence intervals has been a major obstacle to the verification of these and other models. We present the results from a simple analogue model of earthquake rupture and stick-slip which displays power-law frequency-size statistics and involves many cycles of large events. We show that, despite the macroscopic homogeneity of the model, large events do not conform to simple deterministic time- or slip-predictable patterns. However, when the recurrence intervals for large events are divided by the median recurrence interval, the normalized data are composed of two distinct lognormally distributed populations. One population is characterized by events which are strongly clustered in time with relatively short recurrence intervals and low moment release, the other by events which are weakly clustered in time with median-sized recurrence intervals. It is suggested that the long-term recurrence behaviour of large earthquakes, whilst being non-deterministic, may be modelled by a well-defined statistical distribution of recurrence intervals.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Earth and Planetary Science Letters 117 (1993), S. 423-429 
    ISSN: 0012-821X
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Amsterdam : Elsevier
    Tetrahedron Letters 12 (1971), S. 1415-1418 
    ISSN: 0040-4039
    Source: Elsevier Journal Backfiles on ScienceDirect 1907 - 2002
    Topics: Chemistry and Pharmacology
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Cellular and molecular life sciences 25 (1969), S. 906-907 
    ISSN: 1420-9071
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Biology , Medicine
    Notes: Zusammenfassung N-Bromosuccinimid-induzierte transannulare Zyklisation von Dihydrocostunolid wird beschrieben.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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