ALBERT

Description: A 35-year ERA-Interim dataset from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) was used to study the characteristics of Kelvin waves and Mixed Rossby-gravity waves based on a Space-Time Spectral Analysis (STSA). The results show that Kelvin wave activity is stronger during easterly QBO phases, while Mixed Rossby-gravity waves are stronger during westerly QBO phases. Analysis on seasonal variations indicates that the Kelvin waves and Mixed Rossby-Gravity wave activities increase in JJA and SON, respectively. This is associated with a variation of basic mean flow in the lower stratosphere. In addition, the variations of Kelvin and Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves in the troposphere are not significantly affected by the QBO phases. In the troposphere, both Kelvin waves and Mixed Rossby-Gravity waves propagate with a lower phase speed compared to those observed in the stratosphere. This behavior is to be likely due to large.

Description: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of intra-seasonal variability in the tropical troposphere, characterized by an eastward moving 'pulse' of cloud and rainfall near the equator. In this study, total precipitable water (TPW) and total column ozone (TCO) datasets from ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis were used to analyse the impact of the MJO on the distribution of water vapor and column ozone in the tropics from 1979 to 2013. The results show that seasonal variations of TPW modulated by the MJO are maximized in the tropics of about 10°S-10°N during boreal winter, while the variation in TCO is maximized in the mid-latitudes of about 30°S - 40°N in the same season. The composite analysis shows that MJO modulates TPW and TCO anomalies eastward across the globe. The underlying mechanism of the MJO's impact on TPW is mainly associated with variation of tropical convection modulated by the MJO, while the underlying mechanism of the MJO's impact on TCO is mainly associated with an intra-seasonal variability of tropopause height modulated by the MJO activity. This knowledge helps to improve the prediction skill of the intra-seasonal variation of water vapor and column ozone in the tropics during boreal winter.

Description: Characteristics of atmospheric equatorial Kelvin waves and mixed Rossby-Gravity (MRG) waves as well as their relationship with tropical convective activity associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) were analyzed. Kelvin waves and MRG waves were identified by using a Space-Time Spectral Analysis (STSA) technique, where the differences in the strength of both waves were quantified by taking the wave spectrum differences for each ENSO phase. Our result showed that Kelvin wave activity is stronger during an El Nino years, whereas the MRG wave activity is stronger during the La Nina years. Seasonal variations of Kelvin wave activity occurs predominantly in MAM over the central to the east Pacific in the El Nino years, while the strongest seasonal variation of MRG wave activity occus in MAM and SON over the northern and southern Pacific during La Nina years. The local variation of Kelvin wave and MRG wave activities are found to be controlled by variation in lower level atmospheric convection induced by sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific Ocean.

Description: The radiative effects induced by the zonally asymmetric part of the ozone field have been shown to significantly change the temperature of the NH winter polar cap, and correspondingly the strength of the polar vortex. In this paper, we aim to understand the physical processes behind these effects using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)'s Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, run with 1960s ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases. We find a mid-winter polar vortex influence only when considering the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) phases separately, since ozone waves affect the vortex in an opposite manner. Specifically, the emergence of a midlatitude QBO signal is delayed by 1–2 months when radiative ozone-wave effects are removed. The influence of ozone waves on the winter polar vortex, via their modulation of shortwave heating, is not obvious, given that shortwave heating is largest during fall, when planetary stratospheric waves are weakest. Using a novel diagnostic of wave 1 temperature amplitude tendencies and a synoptic analysis of upward planetary wave pulses, we are able to show the chain of events that lead from a direct radiative effect on weak early fall upward-propagating planetary waves to a winter polar vortex modulation. We show that an important stage of this amplification is the modulation of individual wave life cycles, which accumulate during fall and early winter, before being amplified by wave–mean flow feedbacks. We find that the evolution of these early winter upward planetary wave pulses and their induced stratospheric zonal mean flow deceleration is qualitatively different between QBO phases, providing a new mechanistic view of the extratropical QBO signal. We further show how these differences result in opposite radiative ozone-wave effects between east and west QBOs.

Description: Downward wave coupling (DWC) is an important process that characterizes the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere via planetary wave reflection. A recent modeling study indicated that natural forcing factors, including sea-surface temperature variability and quasi-biennial oscillation, influence DWC and the associated surface impact in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In light of this, we further investigate how DWC in the NH is affected by anthropogenic forcings, using a fully coupled chemistry-climate model CESM1 (WACCM). The results indicate that the occurrence of DWC is significantly suppressed in the future, starting later in the seasonal cycle, with more events concentrated in late winter (February-March). The future decrease in DWC events is associated with enhanced wave absorption in the stratosphere due to increased greenhouse gases. The enhanced wave absorption is manifest as more absorbing types of stratospheric sudden warmings, with more events concentrated in early winter. This early winter condition leads to a delay in the development of the upper stratospheric reflecting surface, resulting in a shift in the seasonal cycle of DWC towards late winter. The tropospheric responses to DWC events in the future exhibit different spatial patterns compared to those of the past. In the North Atlantic sector, DWC-induced circulation changes are characterized by a poleward shift and an eastward extension of the tropospheric jet, while in the North Pacific sector, the circulation changes are characterized by a weakening of the tropospheric jet. These responses are consistent with a change in the pattern of DWC-induced synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow interaction.

Description: Downward wave coupling occurs when an upward propagating planetary wave from the troposphere decelerates the flow in the upper stratosphere, and forms a downward reflecting surface that redirects waves back to the troposphere. To test this mechanism and potential factors influencing the downward wave coupling, three 145-year sensitivity simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM-WACCM), a state-of-the-art high-top chemistry-climate model, are analyzed. The results show that the QBO and SST variability significantly impact downward wave coupling. Without the QBO, the occurrence of downward wave coupling is significantly suppressed. In contrast, stronger and more persistent downward wave coupling occurs when SST variability is excluded. The above influence on the occurrence of downward wave coupling is mostly due to a direct influence of the QBO and SST variability on stratospheric planetary wave source and propagation. The strengths of the tropospheric circulation and surface responses to a given downward wave coupling event, however, behave differently. The surface anomaly is significantly weaker (stronger) in the experiment with fixed SSTs (without QBO), even though the statistical signal of downward coupling is strongest (weakest) in this experiment. This apparent mismatch is explained by the differences in the strength of the synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback and the possible contribution of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic during DWC event. The weaker synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback, and the absence of the positive NAO-related SST-tripole pattern in the fixed SST experiment are consistent with a weaker tropospheric response in this experiment. The results highlight the importance of synoptic-scale eddies in setting the tropospheric response to downward wave coupling.

Description: There is evidence that the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the Antarctic ozone hole–induced cooling cause a polar mesospheric warming and a subsequent cooling in the lower thermosphere. While previous studies focus on the role of nonresolved (gravity) wave drag filtering, here the role of resolved (planetary) wave drag and radiative forcing on the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is explored in detail. Using simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM1(WACCM)], it is found that in late spring and early summer the anomalous polar mesospheric warming induced by easterly nonresolved wave drag is dampened by anomalous dynamical cooling induced by westerly resolved wave drag. This resolved wave drag is attributed to planetary-scale wave (k = 1–3) activity, which is generated in situ as a result of increased instability of the summer mesospheric easterly jet induced by the ozone hole. On the other hand, the anomalous cooling in the polar lower thermosphere induced by westerly nonresolved wave drag is enhanced by anomalous dynamical cooling due to westerly resolved wave drag. In addition, radiative effects from increased greenhouse gases during the ozone hole period contribute partially to the cooling in the polar lower thermosphere. The polar MLT temperature response to the Antarctic ozone hole is, through thermal wind balance, accompanied by the downward migration of anomalous zonal-mean wind from the lower thermosphere to the stratopause. The results highlight that a proper accounting of both dynamical and radiative effects is required in order to correctly attribute the causes of the polar MLT response to the Antarctic ozone hole.

Description: Stratospheric variability plays an important role in driving the weather and climate of the Earth system. The extent to which various forcing factors explain this variability and the involved mechanisms are not fully understood. This thesis investigates processes controlling the variability of the stratosphere and the implication of this variability on ozone and on circulations in the troposphere and mesosphere. A series of sensitivity simulations with NCAR’s CESM1(WACCM) model was performed to understand how these coupling processes are influenced by different natural and anthropogenic factors. The focus of this thesis is mainly on new aspects of the stratosphere- troposphere coupling mechanism via downward wave coupling (DWC), which is the most direct way by which the stratospheric background wind can affect tropospheric circulation. Based on a series of sensitivity simulations, it is shown that although DWC is suppressed in the absence of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) variability, the tropospheric signal to DWC is enhanced, and vice versa when the sea surface temperature (SST) variability is excluded. This apparent mismatch is explained by the differences in the strength of the synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback and the possible contribution of SST anomalies during DWC events. In particular, a weaker eddy-mean flow feedback in the absence of SST variability is consistent with modest Eady growth rate and synoptic wave source anomalies, which results in decreased synoptic-scale wave divergence. For the first time, the downward influence of DWC on the surface weather is suggested to be related to enhanced baroclinic instability in the troposphere. This thesis also provides the first evidence for an effect of DWC on Arctic stratospheric ozone. A statistically significant decrease in Arctic column ozone is observed towards late winter during years with enhanced DWC. This is attributed to an increased net amount of wave reflection that leads to a cold polar vortex and less ozone transport to the pole. The results establish a new perspective on dynamical processes controlling Arctic ozone variability. Under extreme climate change conditions, a significant reduction in DWC events is detected in the future, with a shift of their timing from early to midwinter. This variation is related to changes of the vertical reflecting surfaces and an increased wave absorption in early winter. The result also indicates that future changes in midwinter surface weather during DWC event are related to changes in baroclinic eddy feedback in the troposphere. In the last part of this thesis, the impact of the Antarctic ozone hole on the vertical coupling of the stratosphere and mesosphere-lower thermosphere (MLT) system is investigated in detail. The results highlight that a proper accounting of both, dynamical and radiative effects, is required in order to correctly attribute the causes of the polar MLT response to the Antarctic ozone hole. This thesis provides an advanced understanding of the mechanisms responsible for the coupling between the troposphere, stratosphere, and beyond in both the upward and downward directions. This knowledge has the potential to improve the representation of middle atmosphere circulation in climate models, and thus to improve predictions of ozone, climate, and even tropospheric weather.