ALBERT

Description: Reconstructions of historical climate changes indicate that surface air temperatures decreased over the preindustrial last millennium. Conflicting explanations have been proposed for the cause of the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) in the early part of the last millennium to the Little Ice Age (LIA) near its end. The possible causes include volcanic emissions, total solar irradiance (TSI) variations, greenhouse gas concentration fluctuations, and orbital forcing variations. In the present paper, it is demonstrated that all of these climate forcings contribute significantly to simulated surface air temperature (SAT) and sea ice concentration changes over this period. On the other hand, simulated ocean heat content appears to respond significantly only to volcanic and TSI variations. In model simulations at T85 spectral resolution, TSI reductions and volcanic emissions together generate significant increases in sea ice extent in the Barents Sea, which is found to be responsible for most of the temperature reductions over northwestern Europe. TSI appears less important to Arctic sea ice and SAT changes in simulations at T42 spectral resolution, which are weaker than at T85 resolution. Such resolution dependence is attributed to differences in background conditions in the responses to these external climate forcings. Nonlinearities in the forcing responses and sensitivities to background conditions challenge the assumption that sensitivity tests for given forcings can be run independently. Additionally, it is demonstrated that an ensemble of model simulations is required to isolate forcing responses even over a period as long as the last millennium.

Description: Greenland climate variability is connected to internal and external sources of global climate forcing in six millennium simulations using Community Climate System Model, version 3. The external forcings employed are consistent with the protocols of Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3. Many simulated internal climate modes are characterized over the years 850–1850, including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), the east Atlantic pattern (EA), the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the North Atlantic sea ice extent, and the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Lagged correlation and multivariate regression methods connect Greenland temperatures and precipitation to these internal modes and external sources of climate variability. Greenland temperature and precipitation are found to relate most strongly to North Atlantic sea ice extent, the AMO, and the AMOC, that are themselves strongly interconnected. Furthermore, approximately half of the multidecadal variability in Greenland temperature and precipitation are captured through linear relationships with volcanic aerosol optical depth, solar insolation (including total solar irradiance and local orbital variability), the NAO, the EA, and the PDO. Relationships are robust with volcanic aerosol optical depth, solar insolation, and an index related to latitudinal shifts of the North Atlantic jet. Differences attributable to model resolution are also identified in the results, such as lower variability in the AMOC and Greenland temperature in the higher-resolution simulations. Finally, a regression model is applied to simulations of the industrial period to show that natural sources alone only explain the variability in simulated Greenland temperature and precipitation up to the 1950s and 1970s, respectively.

Description: Abrupt climate shifts of large amplitudes were common features of the Earth's climate as it transitioned into and out of the last full glacial state approximately 20 000 years ago, but their causes are not yet established. Midlatitude atmospheric dynamics may have played an important role in these climate variations through their effects on heat and precipitation distributions, sea ice extent, and wind-driven ocean circulation patterns. This study characterizes deglacial winter wind changes over the North Atlantic (NAtl) in a suite of transient deglacial simulations using the PlaSim Earth system model (run at T42 resolution) and the TraCE-21ka (T31) simulation. Though driven with yearly updates in surface elevation, we detect multiple instances of NAtl jet transitions in the PlaSim simulations that occur within 10 simulation years and a sensitivity of the jet to background climate conditions. Thus, we suggest that changes to the NAtl jet may play an important role in abrupt glacial climate changes. We identify two types of simulated wind changes over the last deglaciation. Firstly, the latitude of the NAtl eddy-driven jet shifts northward over the deglaciation in a sequence of distinct steps. Secondly, the variability in the NAtl jet gradually shifts from a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) state with a strongly preferred jet latitude and a restricted latitudinal range to one with no single preferred latitude and a range that is at least 11∘ broader. These changes can significantly affect ocean circulation. Changes to the position of the NAtl jet alter the location of the wind forcing driving oceanic surface gyres and the limits of sea ice extent, whereas a shift to a more variable jet reduces the effectiveness of the wind forcing at driving surface ocean transports. The processes controlling these two types of changes differ on the upstream and downstream ends of the NAtl eddy-driven jet. On the upstream side over eastern North America, the elevated ice sheet margin acts as a barrier to the winds in both the PlaSim simulations and the TraCE-21ka experiment. This constrains both the position and the latitudinal variability in the jet at LGM, so the jet shifts in sync with ice sheet margin changes. In contrast, the downstream side over the eastern NAtl is more sensitive to the thermal state of the background climate. Our results suggest that the presence of an elevated ice sheet margin in the south-eastern sector of the North American ice complex strongly constrains the deglacial position of the jet over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic as well as its variability.

Description: Abrupt climate shifts of large amplitude were common features of the Earth's climate as it transitioned into and out of the last full glacial state approximately twenty thousand years ago, but their causes are not yet established. Mid-latitudinal atmospheric dynamics may have played an important role in these oscillations through their effects on heat and precipitation distributions, sea ice extent, and wind-driven ocean circulation patterns. This study characterises deglacial winter wind changes over the North Atlantic (NAtl) in a suite of transient deglacial simulations we performed using the PlaSim earth system model, as well as in the TraCE-21ka simulation. We detect multiple instances of NAtl jet transitions that occur within 10 simulation years and a sensitivity of the jet to background climate conditions. Thus, we suggest that changes to the NAtl jet may play a critical role in abrupt glacial climate oscillations. We identify two types of simulated wind changes over the last deglaciation. Firstly, the latitude of the NAtl eddy-driven jet shifts northward over the deglaciation in a sequence of distinct steps. Secondly, the variability of the NAtl jet gradually shifts from a Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) state with a strongly preferred jet latitude and a restricted latitudinal range to one with no single preferred latitude and a range that is at least 11° broader. Changes to the position of the NAtl jet alter the location of the wind forcing driving oceanic surface gyres and the limits of sea ice extent, whereas a shift to a more variable jet reduces the effectiveness of the wind forcing at driving surface ocean transports. The processes controlling these two types of changes differ on the upstream and downstream ends of the NAtl eddy-driven jet. On the upstream side over eastern North America, the elevated ice sheet margin acts as a physical barrier to the winds in both the PlaSim simulations and the TraCE-21ka experiment. This constrains both the position and the latitudinal variability of the jet at LGM, so the jet shifts in sync with ice sheet margin changes. In contrast, the downstream side over the eastern NAtl is more sensitive to the thermal state of the background climate. Our results suggest that knowing the position of the south-eastern margin of the North American ice complex strongly constrains the deglacial position of the jet over eastern North America and the western North Atlantic as well as its variability.

Description: We present an ensemble of last glacial inception (LGI) simulations for the Northern Hemisphere that captures a significant fraction of inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. This ensemble was performed with LCice 1.0, a coupled ice sheet and climate model, varying parameters of both climate and ice sheet components, as well as the coupling between them. Certain characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of ice growth and subsequent retreat in both North America (NA) and Eurasia (EA) are sensitive to parameter changes while others are not. We find that the initial inception of ice over NA and EA is best characterized by the nucleation of ice at high-latitude and high-elevation sites. Subsequent spreading and merger along with large-scale conversion of snowfields dominate in different sectors. The latter plays an important role in the merging of eastern and western ice regions in NA. The inception peak ice volume in the ensemble occurs approximately at 111 ka and therefore lags the summer 60∘ N insolation minimum by more than 3 kyr. Ice volumes consistently peak earlier over EA than NA. The inception peak in North America is characterized by a merged Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheet, with the Davis Strait covered in ice in ∼80 % of simulations. Ice also bridges Greenland and Iceland in all runs by 114 ka and therefore blocks the Denmark Strait. This latter feature would thereby divert the East Greenland Current and Denmark Strait overflow with a potentially significant impact on ocean circulation. The Eurasian ice sheet at its inception peak varies across ensemble runs between a continuous ice sheet and multiple smaller ice caps. In both continents, the colder high latitudes (i.e. Ellesmere and Svalbard) tend to grow ice through the entire simulation (to 102 ka), while lower latitudes lose ice after ∼110 ka. We find temperature decreases over the initial phases of the inception lead to the expansion of NA ice sheet area and that subsequent precipitation increases contribute to its thickening. EA ice sheet area also expands with decreasing temperatures, but sea ice limits any increases in precipitation, leading to an earlier retreat away from the EA maximum ice sheet volume. We also examine the extent to which the capture of both LGI ice growth and retreat constrains the coupled ice–climate model sensitivity to changing atmospheric pCO2. The 55-member sub-ensemble that meets our criteria for “acceptable” ice growth and retreat has an equilibrium climate sensitivity lower bound that is 0.3 ∘C higher than that of the full ensemble. This suggests some potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of the last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.

Description: We present an ensemble of last glacial inception (LGI) simulations for the Northern Hemisphere that captures a significant fraction of inferred ice volume changes within proxy uncertainties. This ensemble was performed with LCice 1.0, a coupled ice sheet and climate model, varying parameters of both climate and ice sheet components, as well as the coupling between them. Certain characteristics of the spatiotemporal pattern of ice growth and subsequent retreat in both North America (NA) and Eurasia (EA) are sensitive to parameter changes while others are not. We find that the initial inception of ice over NA and EA is best characterized by the nucleation of ice at high-latitude and high-elevation sites. Subsequent spreading and merger along with large-scale conversion of snowfields dominate in different sectors. The latter plays an important role in the merging of eastern and western ice regions in NA. The inception peak ice volume in the ensemble occurs approximately at 111 ka and therefore lags the summer 60∘ N insolation minimum by more than 3 kyr. Ice volumes consistently peak earlier over EA than NA. The inception peak in North America is characterized by a merged Laurentide and Cordilleran ice sheet, with the Davis Strait covered in ice in ∼80 % of simulations. Ice also bridges Greenland and Iceland in all runs by 114 ka and therefore blocks the Denmark Strait. This latter feature would thereby divert the East Greenland Current and Denmark Strait overflow with a potentially significant impact on ocean circulation. The Eurasian ice sheet at its inception peak varies across ensemble runs between a continuous ice sheet and multiple smaller ice caps. In both continents, the colder high latitudes (i.e. Ellesmere and Svalbard) tend to grow ice through the entire simulation (to 102 ka), while lower latitudes lose ice after ∼110 ka. We find temperature decreases over the initial phases of the inception lead to the expansion of NA ice sheet area and that subsequent precipitation increases contribute to its thickening. EA ice sheet area also expands with decreasing temperatures, but sea ice limits any increases in precipitation, leading to an earlier retreat away from the EA maximum ice sheet volume. We also examine the extent to which the capture of both LGI ice growth and retreat constrains the coupled ice–climate model sensitivity to changing atmospheric pCO2. The 55-member sub-ensemble that meets our criteria for “acceptable” ice growth and retreat has an equilibrium climate sensitivity lower bound that is 0.3 ∘C higher than that of the full ensemble. This suggests some potential value of fully coupled ice–climate modelling of the last glacial inception to constrain future climate change.