ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Forecasting industrial production in the Euro area (2000)
    Springer
    Empirical economics 25 (2000), S. 541-561 
    Details
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: Key words: Forecasts comparison ; alternative models ; conditional ECM ; JEL Classification: C53 ; C22
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The creation of the Euro area has increased the importance of obtaining timely information about short-term changes in the area's real activity. In this paper we propose a number of alternative short term forecasting models, ranging from simple ARIMA models to more complex cointegrated VAR and conditional models, to forecast the index of industrial production in the euro area. A conditional error-correction model in which the aggregate index of industrial production for the area is explained by the US industrial production index and the business confidence index from the European Commission harmonised survey on manufacturing firms achieves the best score in terms of forecasting capacity.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001810000032
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Exchange rate, inflation and unemployment in East European economies: the case of Poland and Hungary* (1998)
    Springer
    Economic change & restructuring 31 (1998), S. 29-55 
    Details
    ISSN: 1574-0277
    Keywords: cointegration ; structural break ; modelling transition economies
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The aim of the paper is to model the impact of exchange rate on both inflation and unemployment variables in economies which are characterized by important structural changes, i.e. a transition phase moving from centralized economies towards market economies. This phenomenon, which is common to the East European countries, stressed different effects both for what concerns the behaviour of economic agents and for what concerns fiscal and monetary measures adopted by governments and aiming to keep under control the inflation–unemployment trade off. Time series relationships between these variables are investigated within an econometric model. Economic theory and the available data on the hypothetically relevant variables, along with the consideration of the main facts occurred in the period under study, characterize our information set. It is found that single equation analysis yields inefficient inference relative to the whole system analysis, and important structural changes are detected which reflect possible breaks in the structure of the economic system along with a change in economic policy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1003290919164
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Price-wage dynamics in a transition economy: The case of Poland (1994)
    Springer
    Economic change & restructuring 27 (1994), S. 293-313 
    Details
    ISSN: 1574-0277
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we analyse the wage-price relationship of an economy in transition characterized by important structural changes. It is known (see Perron, 1989) that structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots. The stationarity analysis of the series employed in the present model is conducted jointly with the assumption that the breakpoint location is unknown. We follow a testing procedure recently proposed by Zivot and Andrews (1992). Cointegration analysis of wages and prices in the presence of structural breaks finds empirical evidence in favour of two cointegrating vectors involving prices and wages. Our analysis focuses on the different structural behaviour of the price-wage dynamic relationship in the short and long term; we also demonstrate the relative importance of import prices as a source of wage-price fluctuations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF01265337
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Testing for Structural Change in Cointegrated Relationships: Analysis of Price–Wages Models for Poland and Hungary (2000)
    Springer
    Economic change & restructuring 33 (2000), S. 19-51 
    Details
    ISSN: 1574-0277
    Keywords: structural change ; cointegrated system ; changes at unknown period ; wage–price dynamic models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In previous studies concerning short- and long-run relationships for price–wage models, the cointegration analysis has been developed assuming the existence of a unique cointegration parametrisation. These empirical results reveal the presence of significant relationships, both in the short and in the long run, among prices, wages, labour productivity and exchange rate. In this paper we intend to develop the possibility of a more general type of cointegration, allowing for a change at an unknown time period in the sample. At this end we will consider mainly the long-run relationship among these variables using the testing procedure suggested by Gregory and Hansen (1996a,b). This permits us to consider a multivariate extension of the endogenous break univariate approach and, in the meantime, this enables us to test for cointegration in the presence of possible structural breaking cointegrated relationships under the alternative. The empirical analysis of a multivariate model for price–wage relationship both for Poland and Hungary, over the period 1970–1996, is presented and discussed.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:1003963109569
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    Paper (German National Licenses)
    Fulltext
  • 5
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Households Forming Inflation Expectations: Active and Passive Absorption Rates (2010)
    De Gruyter
    Details
    Publication Date: 2010-01-30
    Print ISSN: 2194-6116
    Electronic ISSN: 1935-1690
    Topics: Economics
    Published by De Gruyter
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...