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Are U.S. Military Interventions Contagious over Time? (2023)

Kavanagh, Jennifer

RAND Corporation

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Publication Date: 2024-04-14

Description: Current DoD force planning processes assume that U.S. military interventions are serially independent over time. This report challenges this assumption, arguing that interventions occur in temporally dependent clusters in which the likelihood of an intervention depends on interventions in the recent past. Integrating the concept of temporal dependence into DoD planning processes could help planners develop more appropriate force estimates.

Keywords: History ; Statistics ; Technology ; thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UN Databases::UNA Database design and theory ; thema EDItEUR::J Society and Social Sciences::JW Warfare and defence::JWK Military and defence strategy ; thema EDItEUR::P Mathematics and Science::PB Mathematics::PBT Probability and statistics

Language: English

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