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  • Keywords: Civil engineering ; Climate change management
    Notes: This book demystifies the models we use to simulate present and future climates, allowing readers to better understand how to use climate model results. In order to predict the future trajectory of the Earth’s climate, climate-system simulation models are necessary. When and how do we trust climate model predictions? The book offers a framework for answering this question. It provides readers with a basic primer on climate and climate change, and offers non-technical explanations for how climate models are constructed, why they are uncertain, and what level of confidence we should place in them. It presents current results and the key uncertainties concerning them. Uncertainty is not a weakness but understanding uncertainty is a strength and a key part of using any model, including climate models. Case studies of how climate model output has been used and how it might be used in the future are provided. The ultimate goal of this book is to promote a better understanding of the structure and uncertainties of climate models among users, including scientists, engineers and policymakers. | Contents: Basic Principles and the Problem of Climate Forecasts --- Key Concepts in Climate Modeling / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 3-12 --- Components of the Climate System / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 13-22 --- Climate Change and Global Warming / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 23-35 --- Essence of a Climate Model / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 37-58 --- Model Mechanics --- Simulating the Atmosphere / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 61-85 --- Simulating the Ocean and Sea Ice / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 87-108 --- Simulating Terrestrial Systems / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 109-137 --- Bringing the System Together: Coupling and Complexity / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 139-158 --- Using Models --- Model Evaluation / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 161-176 --- Predictability / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 177-197 --- Results of Current Models / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 199-220 --- Usability of Climate Model Projections by Practitioners / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 221-236 --- Summary and Final Thoughts / Andrew Gettelman, Richard B. Rood / Pages 237-253
    Pages: XVII, 274 S., 4 schwarz-weiß Abbildungen, 58 Farbabbildungen
    ISBN: 978-3-662-48957-4
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