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1.
PAPER (OA)
Dice thrown from the beginning? An empirical investigation of determinants of firm level growth expectations (2008)
Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía Santiago de Chile
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: This study investigates three competing but complementary perspectives on factors related to entrepreneurial firm growth. We examine individual (entrepreneur) firm and national environment factors associated with the growth expectations of nascent, baby and established firms. Using 25,384 data points from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM)'s survey of entrepreneurial activity in 35 countries, we find male gender, personal acquaintance with an entrepreneur, innovative product/service, low levels of competition and based in less-developed countries are associated with high growth expectations for all three business stages. Nascent and baby firms' business growth expectations are also linked to having higher levels of start-up capital and outside investment. In contrast to some previous research, we find that a firm's initial size is the best predictor of growth expectations. Altogether, size-related factors determine not only initial growth expectations, but also growth expectations at later firm stages. The law of disproportionate growth (i.e. a small number of firms are responsible for most expected job creation) holds for both start-ups and established businesses, although the latter are more rare. While both start-up and established firm growth expectations are higher in the developing countries, the fastest growing young firms are mainly found in developed countries.
Keywords: L25 ; L26 ; O57 ; ddc:330 ; entrepreneurship ; firm growth expectations ; develop vs. developing countries
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:article
2.
PAPER (OA)
The dynamics of the labor markets in Chile (2007)
Universidad de Chile, Departamento de Economía Santiago de Chile
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: Through flows from 3 states, employment, unemployment and out of the labor force, we analyze the dynamics of labor markets in Chile from 1962-2007. We identify some periods of different labor market regimes and relate them with changes in flexibility. We found that reforms such as that of 1967, which introduced the just cause” requirement to fire workers, did not help workers to keep their jobs, but there is no evidence of significant changes in inflexibility. Other labor regimes significantly affected transitions, but surprisingly, it was the new regime identified in 1990, that increased mobility. We interpret this as the result of the consolidation of a flexibility prone model that, until then, had been associated with an unpopular imposition by the military regime. Finally, we do not find any evidence showing that after 1998 the changes in labor participation and consequently, that the explanations of the changes in the unemployment rate could be associated with added and discouraged worker effects.
Keywords: J38 ; J63 ; ddc:330 ; labor markets ; transition probabilities ; unemployment.
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:article
3.
PAPER (OA)
Periodenerfolgsmessung und Risikovorsorge im Kreditgeschäft: Ein grundlegender Überblick und Vergleich alternativer Ansätze der Bewertung von Kreditforderungen (2015)
Universität Kiel, Institut für Betriebswirtschaftslehre Kiel
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: Der Periodenerfolg im Kreditgeschäft hängt nicht nur von den Zinserträgen, sondern auch von der Bewertung der Kreditforderungen unter Berücksichtigung des Ausfallrisikos ab. Hier werden Wertberichtigungen für eingetretene Verluste, für erwartete Verluste, und solche zur Berücksichtigung von Marktwertänderungen gegenübergestellt und in ihren Auswirkungen im Hinblick auf den Periodenerfolg im Zeitablauf analysiert. Dadurch wird deutlich, inwiefern die verschiedenen Varianten von Wertberichtigungen als Risikovorsorge interpretiert werden können, und wie die Risikovorsorge verwendet wird. Die Betrachtung der Periodenerfolge im Zeitablauf erfolgt unter Berücksichtigung von tatsächlichen Kreditausfällen und von sich möglicherweise ändernden Ausfallerwartungen. Neben der theoretischen Analyse wird auch ein Zahlenbeispiel vorgestellt, in dem für verschiedene Szenarien mit unterschiedlichen Ausfallhistorien und mit oder ohne Änderungen von Ausfallerwartungen der Periodenerfolg im Zeitablauf bestimmt wird. So lässt sich z. B. erkennen, dass die Einführung der Risikovorsorge für erwartete Verluste in der Form, wie sie in IFRS 9 vorgesehen ist, einem Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning unterlegen ist, und eine Entwicklung des Periodenerfolgs ähnlich wie bei Bilanzierung zum Fair Value bedingen kann.
Keywords: G21 ; M41 ; M48 ; ddc:650 ; Ausfallrisiko ; Bonitäsrisiko ; Cliff Effect ; Dynamic Loan Loss Provisioning ; eingetretener Verlust ; erwarteter Verlust ; Expected Credit Loss ; Fair Value ; IAS 39 ; IFRS 9 ; Kredibewertung ; Lifetime Expected Credit Loss ; Risikovorsorge ; Risk Provisioning ; Wertberichtigungen
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: deu
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
4.
PAPER (OA)
Financial stability and financial inclusion (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: Developing economies are seeking to promote financial inclusion, i.e., greater access to financial services for low-income households and firms, as part of their overall strategies for economic and financial development. This raises the question of whether financial stability and financial inclusion are, broadly speaking, substitutes or complements. In other words, does the move toward greater financial inclusion tend to increase or decrease financial stability? A number of studies have suggested both positive and negative ways in which financial inclusion could affect financial stability, but very few empirical studies have been made of their relationship. This partly reflects the scarcity and relative newness of data on financial inclusion. This study contributes to the literature on this subject by estimating the effects of various measures of financial inclusion (together with some control variables) on some measures of financial stability, including bank non-performing loans and bank Z-scores. We find some evidence that an increased share of lending to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) aids financial stability, mainly by reducing non-performing loans (NPLs) and the probability of default by financial institutions. This suggests that policy measures to increase financial inclusion, at least by SMEs, would have the side-benefit of contributing to financial stability as well.
Keywords: G21 ; G28 ; O16 ; ddc:330
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
5.
PAPER (OA)
Service sector productivity and economic growth in Asia (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: This paper explores the impacts of more rapid growth in labor productivity in the service sector in Asia based on an empirical general equilibrium model. The model allows for input-output linkages and capital movements across industries and economies, and consumption and investment dynamics. We find that faster productivity growth in the service sector in Asia benefits all sectors eventually, and contributes to the sustained and balanced growth of Asian economies, but the dynamic adjustment is different across economies. This adjustment depends on the sectoral composition of each economy, the capital intensity of each sector, and the openness of each sector to international trade. In particular, during the adjustment to higher services productivity growth, there is a significant expansion of the durable manufacturing sector that is required to provide the capital stock that accompanies the higher aggregate economic growth rate.
Keywords: J21 ; O11 ; O14 ; O41 ; O53 ; ddc:330
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
6.
PAPER (OA)
Policies to enhance trade facilitation in South Asia and Southeast Asia (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: This paper discusses trade facilitation in the context of enhancing trading links between South and Southeast Asia, in a manner understandable to the non-specialist. Presently, these two Asian regions tend to trade preferentially with distant markets. One of the reasons cited for the limited trade between themselves is that trade facilitation with trade partners in developed countries is more user-friendly and stable. This suggests that enhancing trade facilitation within the two regions could promote intra- and inter-regional trade. The paper identifies the scope of trade facilitation and profiles the current overall situation in the two regions. It highlights the key issues and constraints, often referred to as non-trade barriers, in terms of both "soft" and "hard" infrastructure, and highlights ongoing initiatives designed to promote change, especially through the application of new approaches and procedures. Lastly, the paper concludes by discussing the key regional trade facilitation issues and proposing recommendations to eliminate the non-trade barriers that are adversely impacting on trade within and between the regions.
Keywords: F15 ; F13 ; ddc:330
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
7.
PAPER (OA)
Whither multilateral development finance? (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: Multilateral development finance is at a critical juncture. In the past 70 years, it has developed through four distinct stages. The Bretton Woods conference established the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund in 1944 to finance post-war reconstruction and stabilize the global economy. The second stage saw the establishment of regional development banks in the 1950s and 1960s. This was followed by the emergence of subregional banks. In the fourth stage, from the mid-1970s to the 2000s, specialized vertical funds were established to address global issues, and private development finance expanded. The multilateral financial architecture now has a multitude of development banks and funds. As the architecture enters the next stage, the development agenda is changing rapidly. Financially constrained traditional donors are unwilling to recapitalize the existing banks, while emerging donors want to reduce the role of traditional donors and increase their own funding. Emerging-economy bilateral programs are expanding. At the same time, new multilateral initiatives are advancing fast. The BRICS countries' New Development Bank and related contingent reserve and the PRC's Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank initiative have added to the pressure for reform, and to the risk of fragmentation. An alternative financial architecture may take shape led by emerging economies, playing down coordination and well-established development, safeguard, and governance criteria. However, there is also an opportunity for genuine reform to ensure a new and innovative multilateral architecture.
Keywords: F33 ; F34 ; F35 ; O19 ; ddc:330
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
8.
PAPER (OA)
Measuring value added in the People's Republic of China's exports: A direct approach (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: We apply a direct approach to estimate domestic value added embedded in the People's Republic of China's (PRC) exports. The estimates suggest that the domestic value added of processing exports and processing high-tech exports gradually increased from 30% and 25%, to 44% and 45%, respectively, between 1997 and 2012. On the other hand, the domestic content of processing exports with supplied materials fell to 14% from the peak of 35%. In 2012, the domestic value added of the PRC's total exports remained below 77%. Our estimates prove to be the upper limits of the corresponding trade in value added. Compared to our estimates, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's Trade in Value Added database (TiVA) significantly overestimates the domestic content of the PRC's exports. TiVA's estimates are also inconsistent with the fact that the share of processing exports in the PRC's total exports has decreased steadily. In addition, we show that the PRC's processing exports demonstrate significant heterogeneity across its trading partners; processing exports account for a large portion of total exports to high income countries but a relatively small portion of exports to low income countries. This heterogeneity implies that the domestic content of the PRC's exports varies significantly by destination.
Keywords: F1 ; ddc:330 ; Exportinduziertes Wachstum ; Schätzung ; China
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
9.
PAPER (OA)
Three arrows of "Abenomics" and the structural reform of Japan: Inflation targeting policy of the Central Bank, fiscal consolidation, and growth strategy (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: "Abenomics" refers to the economic policies advocated by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who became prime minister of Japan for a second time when his party, the Liberal Democratic Party, won an overwhelming majority at the general election in December 2012. Abenomics has "three arrows": (i) aggressive monetary policy, (ii) fiscal consolidation, and (iii) growth strategy. The Japanese economy faces an aging population and expanding social welfare expenses. No other country has experienced Japan's rapid growth of retired people. In this paper we will explain these three aspects of Abenomics and the current state of the Japanese economy, and examine what further remedies may be required if Japan is to recover from its long-term deflation. We look at such proposals as hometown investment trust funds and postponing of the retirement age through the introduction of a flexible wage rate system.
Keywords: E52 ; E62 ; G21 ; ddc:330 ; Geldpolitik ; Haushaltskonsolidierung ; Wachstumspolitik ; Alternde Bevölkerung ; Ältere Arbeitskräfte ; Japan
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper
10.
PAPER (OA)
Trade policy and growth in Asia (2014)
Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Tokyo
Publication Date: 2015-08-29
Description: This paper examines the changing relationship between trade policy, production networks, and economic growth in Asia. It traces East Asia's rise to the coveted "Factory Asia" league with rapid growth over several decades through trade policy anchored on outward-oriented industrialization strategies, including a voluntary liberalization approach under the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and a multilateral approach under the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT)/World Trade Organization (WTO) system. It explores the implications of various stresses to the performance of Factory Asia such as the consequences of the global financial crisis, the risk of protectionism, the persistence of residual behind-the-border regulatory barriers, the failure to conclude ambitious WTO multilateral trade negotiations, and the relative exclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). Next, it examines the evolving trade policy response in major East Asian economies centered on free trade agreements (FTAs) to support the functioning of Factory Asia and key policy challenges posed by FTAs, including the insufficient depth of FTAs, the risk of an Asian noodle bowl of multiple rules of origin, the potential for raising use of FTA preferences, and the emergence of mega-regional FTA negotiations. Finally, it considers policy implications at the national, regional, and global levels for supporting Factory Asia and growth in Asia.
Keywords: F13 ; L23 ; O19 ; ddc:330
Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
Language: eng
Type: doc-type:workingPaper