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  • 11
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    Challenges in the attribution of river flood events (2024)
    In:  Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: Advances in the field of extreme event attribution allow to estimate how anthropogenic global warming affects the odds of individual climate disasters, such as river floods. Extreme event attribution typically uses precipitation as proxy for flooding. However, hydrological processes and antecedent conditions make the relation between precipitation and floods highly nonlinear. In addition, hydrology acknowledges that changes in floods can be strongly driven by changes in land-cover and by other human interventions in the hydrological system, such as irrigation and construction of dams. These drivers can either amplify, dampen or outweigh the effect of climate change on local flood occurrence. Neglecting these processes and drivers can lead to incorrect flood attribution. Including flooding explicitly, that is, using data and models of hydrology and hydrodynamics that can represent the relevant hydrological processes, will lead to more robust event attribution, and will account for the role of other drivers beyond climate change. Existing attempts are incomplete. We argue that the existing probabilistic framework for extreme event attribution can be extended to explicitly include floods for near-natural cases, where flood occurrence was unlikely to be influenced by land-cover change and human hydrological interventions. However, for the many cases where this assumption is not valid, a multi-driver framework for conditional event attribution needs to be established. Explicit flood attribution will have to grapple with uncertainties from lack of observations and compounding from the many processes involved. Further, it requires collaboration between climatologists and hydrologists, and promises to better address the needs of flood risk management.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 12
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    Global multi-hazard risk assessment in a changing climate (2024)
    In:  Scientific Reports
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: Natural hazards pose significant risks to people and assets in many regions of the world. Quantifying associated risks is crucial for many applications such as adaptation option appraisal and insurance pricing. However, traditional risk assessment approaches have focused on the impacts of single hazards, ignoring the effects of multi-hazard risks and potentially leading to underestimations or overestimations of risks. In this work, we present a framework for modelling multi-hazard risks globally in a consistent way, considering hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities, and assumptions on recovery. We illustrate the approach using river floods and tropical cyclones impacting people and physical assets on a global scale in a changing climate. To ensure physical consistency, we combine single hazard models that were driven by the same climate model realizations. Our results show that incorporating common physical drivers and recovery considerably alters the multi-hazard risk. We finally demonstrate how our framework can accommodate more than two hazards and integrate diverse assumptions about recovery processes based on a national case study. This framework is implemented in the open-source climate risk assessment platform CLIMADA and can be applied to various hazards and exposures, providing a more comprehensive approach to risk management than conventional methods.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 13
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    Impact of global heterogeneity of renewable energy supply on heavy industrial production and green value chains (2024)
    In:  Nature Energy
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: On the path to climate neutrality, global production locations and trade patterns of basic materials might change due to the heterogeneous availability of renewable electricity. Here we estimate the ‘renewables pull’, which is the energy-cost savings, for varying depths of relocation for three key tradable energy-intensive industrial commodities: steel, urea and ethylene. For an electricity-price difference of €40 MWh−1, we find respective relocation savings of 18%, 32% and 38%, which might, despite soft factors in the private sector, lead to green relocation. Conserving today’s production patterns by shipping hydrogen is substantially costlier, whereas trading intermediate products could save costs while keeping substantial value creation in renewable-scarce importing regions. In renewable-scarce regions, a societal debate on macroeconomic, industrial and geopolitical implications is needed, potentially resulting in selective policies of green-relocation protection.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 14
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    The economics of farming expansion in the Brazilian Cerrado under possible effects of climate change (2024)
    In:  International Food and Agribusiness Management Review
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: This analysis assesses the financial viability of legally investing in native Cerrado vegetation deforestation for crop production, considering climate change. The study uses data from twelve different crop models based on three different climate models to evaluate potential future crop yields in cleared land for growing soy and maize. The outcomes show that in many micro-regions, investments in clearing land for crop production would destroy economic value, that is, generate a negative net present value because of low/negative and volatile cashflows driven primarily by future yields as affected by climate. Our analysis was carried out based on present agricultural practices and technology. As climate changes, farmers may adapt their practices, which can lead to more resilient and productive crops, or grow different crops, which could provide better returns on investment in clearing land than the ones resulting from our analysis. Despite various uncertainties, farmers, policy makers and financial institutions should be aware of the climatic and financial risks associated with land clearing in Brazil, mainly in micro-regions in which all scenarios resulted in negative outcomes in the investment analysis. This study indicates that land expansion opportunities on degraded land should be prioritized over additional land clearing.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 15
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    Ten New Insights in Climate Science 2023/2024 (2024)
    In:  Global Sustainability
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: The IPCC Assessment Reports offer the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitute an unmatched resource for climate change researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross- and interdisciplinary understanding across diverse climate change research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesise essential research advances. We collected input from experts on different fields using an online questionnaire and prioritised a set of ten key research insights with high policy relevance. This year we focus on: (1) looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgency of phasing-out fossil fuels, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future of natural carbon sinks, (5) need for join governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in the science of compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We first present a succinct account of these Insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a report targeted to policymakers as a contribution to elevate climate science every year, in time for the UNFCCC COP.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 16
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    Direction-dependent noise-induced synchronization in mobile oscillators (2023)
    In:  Chaos
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: Synchronization among uncoupled oscillators can emerge when common noise is applied on them and is famously known as noise-induced synchronization. In previous studies, it was assumed that common noise may drive all the oscillators at the same time when they are static in space. Understanding how to develop a mathematical model that apply common noise to only a fraction of oscillators is of significant importance for noise-induced synchronization. Here, we propose a direction-dependent noise field model for noise-induced synchronization of an ensemble of mobile oscillators/agents, and the effective noise on each moving agent is a function of its direction of motion. This enables the application of common noise if the agents are oriented in the same direction. We observe not only complete synchronization of all the oscillators but also clustered states as a function of the ensemble density beyond a critical value of noise intensity, which is a characteristic of the internal dynamics of the agents. Our results provide a deeper understanding on noise-induced synchronization even in mobile agents and how the mobility of agents affects the synchronization behaviors.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 17
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    Green transition and macroeconomic stabilization (2024)
    In:  Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: This paper looks into the crucial macroeconomic feedback mechanisms emerging from the interplay among the goods market, the labor market, the financial sector, and monetary policy, particularly in the context of transitioning towards a climate-neutral economy. The investment decisions of firms, pivotal in this interaction, can trigger feedback loops with potentially destabilizing effects, underscoring the critical role of investment within the complex interplay of market and sector dynamics in the macroeconomy. Governmental intervention is highlighted as a key factor in steering the green transition while preserving economic stability. A carbon tax on fossil fuel consumption is proposed as a primary tool for facilitating this green transition. Our investigation employs a disequilibrium model of monetary growth, a la Keynes-Metzler-Goodwin (KMG), incorporating a portfolio perspective across three asset markets - money, bonds, and stocks. This framework allows for an in-depth analysis of how a carbon tax influences real production, inflation, and inequality during the transition. Our findings indicate that imposing a carbon tax on production does not markedly disrupt economic stability, as long as the carbon pricing and its growth rate remain within low bounds.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 18
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    Asset pricing and the carbon beta of externalities (2024)
    In:  Journal of Environmental Economics and Management
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: Climate policy needs to set incentives for investors who face imperfect, distorted markets and large uncertainties about the costs and benefits of abatement. These investors decide on uncertain investments according to their expected return and risk (carbon beta). We study carbon pricing and financial incentives in a consumption-based asset pricing model distorted by technology spillovers and time-inconsistency. We find that both distortions reduce the equilibrium asset return and delay investment in abatement. However, their effect on the carbon beta and the risk premium for abatement can be decreasing (when innovation spillovers are not anticipated) or increasing (when climate policy is not credible). We show that the distortions can be overcome by modified carbon pricing by a regulator, or by financial incentives, implemented in our model by a long-term investment fund. The fund pays a subsidy to reduce technology costs or offers financial contracts to boost investment returns to complement the carbon price. The investment fund can thus pave the way for carbon pricing in later periods by preventing a capital misallocation that would be too expensive to correct, thus improving the feasibility of ambitious carbon pricing.
    Language: English
    Type: info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 19
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    19th International Congress on the Carboniferous and Permian Cologne, July 29-August 2, 2019 : Field guides (2019)
    Köln : Institut für Geologie und Mineralogie der Universität zu Köln
    Details Availability
    Call number: M 24.95594
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: 302 Seiten , Illustrationen
    ISBN: 978-3-934027-27-5 , 9783934027275
    ISSN: 1437-3246
    Series Statement: Kölner Forum für Geologie und Paläontologie 24/2019
    Language: English
    Note: Contents Preface / H.-G. Herbig, M. Aretz, M.R.W. Amler & S. Hartenfels Field trip Al: The Uppermost Devonian and Lower Carboniferous in the type area of Southern Belgium / J. Denayer, C. Prestianni, B. Mottequin & E. POTY Field Trip A2: The Pennsylvanian of the Ruhr Basin and Osnabruck region, western Germany - facies, stratigraphy, and tectonics of a paralic foreland basin of the Variscides / V. Wrede, G. Drozdzewski, D. Juch, A. Leipner & M. Sowiak Field Trip A3: The classical Central European Permian: Continental "Rotliegend", marine "Zechstein", and the Permian-Triassic Transition in Germany / J. Schneider, T. Wotte, B. Gaitzsch, R. Werneburg, S. Zeibig & F. Scholze Field Trip Cl: The Mississippian Kulm Basin of the Rhenish Mountains, western Germany - fauna, facies, and stratigraphy of a mixed carbonate-siliciclastic foreland basin / H.-G. Herbig, D. Korn, M.R.W. Amler, S. Hartenfels & H. Jäger Field Trip C2: Pennsylvanian-Permian of the Saar-Nahe Basin, SW Germany / S. Voigt, T. Schindler, H. Thum & J. Fischer Field Trip C3: The Pennsylvanian-Permian of the Southern Alps (Carnic Alps/Karavanke Mts.), Austria/ Italy/Slovenia - fauna, facies and stratigraphy of a mixed carbonate- siliciclastic shallow marine platform along the northwestern Palaeotethys margin / M. Novak, H.C. Forke & H.P. Schönlaub
    Location: Upper compact magazine
    Branch Library: GFZ Library
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  • 20
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    COST-G GravIS RL01 Ice-Mass Change Products (2020)
    GFZ Data Services
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-15
    Description: Abstract
    Description: Version History:15 June 2020:Initial release of the data. Note that the initial version number is 0002 in order to reflect the consistent data processing of this data set and Version 0002 of the data set Sasgen et al. (2019, http://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.GRAVIS_06_L3_ICE).---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------GRACE/GRACE-FO Level-3 products based on COST-G RL01 Level-2B products (Dahle & Murböck, 2020) representing ice-mass changes for the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) and the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). The ice-mass changes are provided both as basin average product and as gridded product.Basin-average ice-mass changes are obtained using the inversion procedure based on a forward modelling approach as described in Sasgen et al. (2013) for the AIS and Sasgen et al. (2012) for the GIS.Gridded ice-mass changes are provided at polar-stereographic grids with a grid spacing of 50 x 50 km^2. The applied algorithm is based on tailored sensitivity kernels (Groh & Horwath, 2016), and has also been used to generate gravimetric mass balance products within the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) projects for the AIS and the GIS.These Level-3 products are visualized at GFZ's web portal GravIS (http://gravis.gfz-potsdam.de).Link to data products: ftp://isdcftp.gfz-potsdam.de/grace/GravIS/COST-G/Level-3/ICE
    Keywords: Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) ; GRACE Follow-on (GRACE-FO) ; Level-3 ; Mass ; Mass Transport ; Ice-mass Change ; Time Variable Gravity ; Antarctic Mass Balance ; Greenland Mass Balance ; Sea-level Change ; EARTH SCIENCE 〉 SOLID EARTH 〉 GRAVITY/GRAVITATIONAL FIELD ; Earth Observation Satellites 〉 NASA Earth System Science Pathfinder 〉 GRACE
    Language: English
    Type: Dataset , Dataset
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