ALBERT

Description: A preliminary comparison of the GEOS-1 (Goddard Earth Observing System) data assimilation system convective cloud mass fluxes with fluxes from a cloud-resolving model (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model, GCE) is reported. A squall line case study (10-11 June 1985 Oklahoma PRESTORM episode) is the basis of the comparison. Regional (central U. S.) monthly total convective mass flux for June 1985 from GEOS-1 compares favorably with estimates from a statistical/dynamical approach using GCE simulations and satellite-derived cloud observations. The GEOS-1 convective mass fluxes produce reasonable estimates of monthly-averaged regional convective venting of CO from the boundary layer at least in an urban-influenced continental region, suggesting that they can be used in tracer transport simulations.

Description: Solar variability is examined in search of implications for global change. The topics covered include the following: solar variation modification of global surface temperature; the significance of solar variability with respect to future climate change; and methods of reducing the uncertainty of the potential amplitude of solar variability on longer time scales.

Description: The 3.0-micrometers water of hydration absorption feature observed in the IR photometry of many low-albedo and some medium-albedo asteroids strongly correlates with the 0.7-micrometers Fe(+2) to Fe(+3) oxidized iron absorption feature observed in narrowband spectrophotometry of these asteroids. Using this relationship, an empirical algorithm for predicting the presence of water of hydration in the surface material of a Solar System body using photometry obtained through the Eight-Color Asteroid Survey nu (0.550 micrometers), w (0.701 micrometers), and x (0.853 micrometers) filters was developed and applied to the ECAS photometry of asteroids and outer planet satellites. The percentage of objects in low-albedo, outer main-belt asteroid classes that test positively for water of hydration increases from P to B to C to G class and correlates linearly with the increasing mean albedos of those objects testing positively. The medium-albedo M-class asteroids do not test positively in large number using this algorithm. Aqueously altered asteroids dominate the Solar System population between heliocentric distances of 2.6 to 3.5 AU, bracketing the Solar System region where the aqueous alteration mechanism operated most strongly. One jovian satellite, J VI Himalia, and one saturnian satellite. Phoebe, tested positively for water of hydration, supporting the hypothesis that these may be captured C-class asteroids from a postaccretional dispersion. The proposed testing technique could be applied to an Earth-based survey of asteroids or a space-probe study of an asteroid's surface characteristic in order to identify a potential water source.

Description: The infrared transmission spectra and photochemical behavior of various organic compounds isolated in solid N2 ices, appropriate for applications to Triton ad Pluto, are presented. It is shown that excess absorption in the surface spectra of Triton and Pluto, i.e., absorption not explained by present models incorporating molecules already identified on these bodies (N2, CH4, CO, and CO2), that starts near 4450/cm (2.25 microns) and extends to lower frequencies, may be due to alkanes (C(n)H(2n+2)) and related molecules frozen in the nitrogen. Branched and linear alkanes may be responsible. Experiments in which the photochemstry of N2: CH4 and N2: CH4: CO ices was explored demonsrtrate that the surface ices of Triton and Pluto may contain a wide variety of additional species containing H, C, O, and N. Of these, the reactive molecule diazomethane, CH2N2, is particularly important since it may be largely responsible for the synthesis of larger alkanes from CH4 and other small alkanes. Diazomethane would also be expected to drive chemical reactions involving organics in the surface ices of Triton and Pluto toward saturation, i.e., to reduce multiple CC bonds. The positions and intrinsic strengths (A values) of many of the infrared absorption bands of N2 matrix-isolated molecules of relevance to Triton and Pluto have also been determined. These can be used to aid in their search and to place constraints on their abundances.

Description: Estimates of the mass of dust suspended in the Martian atmosphere are derived from global and regional 9-micrometer opacity maps produced from Viking Infrared Thermal Mapper data. During the peak of the 1977b storm, a total dust mass of approximately 4.3 x 10(exp 14) g was suspended, equivalent to 4.3 x 10(exp -4) g/sq cm, or a layer 1.4 micrometers thick. During a local dust storm near Solis Planum at L(sub s) 227 deg, approximately 1.3 x 10(exp 13) g of dust were lofted, equal to about a 6-micrometer layer in that vicinity.

Description: The U.S. upper Midwest was subjected to severe flooding during the summer of 1993. Heavy rainfall in the Mississippi River basin from April through July caused flooding on many Midwest rivers, including the Mississippi, Illinois, Missouri, and Kansas Rivers. The flood crest of 15.1 m at St. Louis, Missouri, on 1 August 1993 was the highest ever measured, surpassing the previous record of 13.2 m set on 28 April 1973. Damage estimates include at least 47 flood-related deaths and a total damage cost of $12 billion. Remotely sensed imagery of severe flooding in the U.S. Midwest was obtained under cloud-free skies on 29 July 1993 by the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) Airborne Simulator (MAS). The MAS is a newly developed scanning spectrometer with 50 spectral bands in the wavelength range 0.55-14.3 micrometers. Estimation of the total flooded area in the MAS scene acquired near St. Louis was accomplished by comparing the MAS scene to a Landsat-5 thematic mapper (TM) scene of the same area acquired on 14 April 1984 in nonflood conditions. For comparison, the MAS band centered at 0.94 micrometers and the TM band centered at 1.65 micrometers were selected because of the high contrast seen in these bands between land and water-covered surfaces. An estimate of the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes was obtained by developing land/water brightness thresholds from histograms of the MAS and TM digital image data. Afetr applying the thresholds, the difference between the area covered by water in the MAS and TM scenes, and hence the flooded area in the MAS scene, was found to be about 396 sq km, or about 153 square miles.

Description: Shortwave radiative fluxes that reach the earth's surface are key factors that influence atmospheric and oceanic circulations as well as surface climate. Yet, information on these fluxes is meager. Surface site data are generally available from only a limited number of observing stations over land. Much less is known about the large-scale variability of the shortwave radiative fluxes over the oceans, which cover most of the globe. Recognizing the need to produce global-scale fields of such fluxes for use in climate research, the World Climate Research Program has initiated activities that led to the establishment of the Surface Radiation Budget Climatology Project with the ultimate goal to determine various components of the surface radiation budget from satellite data. In this paper, the first global products that resulted from this activity are described. Monthly and daily data on a 280-km grid scale are available. Samples of climate parameters obtainable from the dataset are presented. Emphasis is given to validation and limitations of the results. For most of the globe, satellite estimates have bias values between +/- 20 W/sq m and root mean square (rms) values are around 25 W/sq m. There are specific regions with much larger uncertainties however.

Description: The deployment of a space-based Doppler lidar would provide information that is fundamental to advancing the understanding and prediction of weather and climate. This paper reviews the concepts of wind measurement by Doppler lidar, highlights the results of some observing system simulation experiments with lidar winds, and discusses the important advances in earth system science anticipated with lidar winds. Observing system simulation experiments, conducted using two different general circulation models, have shown (1) that there is a significant improvement in the forecast accuracy over the Southern Hemisphere and tropical oceans resulting from the assimilation of simulated satellite wind data, and (2) that wind data are significantly more effective than temperature or moisture data in controlling analysis error. Because accurate wind observations are currently almost entirely unavailable for the vast majority of tropical cyclones worldwide, lidar winds have the potential to substan- tially improve tropical cyclone forecasts. Similarly, to improve water vapor flux divergence calculations, a direct measure of the ageostrophic wind is needed since the present level of uncer- tainty cannot be reduced with better temperature and moisture soundings alone.

Description: We model an infrared outburst on Io as being due to a large, erupting lava flow which increased its area at a rate of 1.5 x 10(exp 5)/sq m and cooled from 1225 to 555 K over the 2.583-hr period of observation. The inferred effusion rate of 3 x 10(exp 5) cu m/sec for this eruption is very high, but is not unprece- dented on the Earth and is similar to the high eruption rates suggested for early lunar volcanism. Eruptions occur approxi- mately 6% of the time on Io. These eruptions provide ample resurfacing to explain Io's lack of impact craters. We suggest that the large total radiometric heat flow, 10(exp 14) W, and the size and temperature distribution of the thermal anomalies (McEwen et al. 1992; Veeder et al. 1994) can be accounted for by a series of silicate lava flows in various stages of cooling. We propose that the whole suite of Io's currently observed thermal anomalies was produced by multiple, high-eruptive-rate silicate flows within the past century.

Description: The 'satellite-gauge model' (SGM) technique is described for combining precipitation estimates from microwave satellite data, infrared satellite data, rain gauge analyses, and numerical weather prediction models into improved estimates of global precipitation. Throughout, monthly estimates on a 2.5 degrees x 2.5 degrees lat-long grid are employed. First, a multisatellite product is developed using a combination of low-orbit microwave and geosynchronous-orbit infrared data in the latitude range 40 degrees N - 40 degrees S (the adjusted geosynchronous precipitation index) and low-orbit microwave data alone at higher latitudes. Then the rain gauge analysis is brougth in, weighting each field by its inverse relative error variance to produce a nearly global, observationally based precipitation estimate. To produce a complete global estimate, the numerical model results are used to fill data voids in the combined satellite-gauge estimate. Our sequential approach to combining estimates allows a user to select the multisatellite estimate, the satellite-gauge estimate, or the full SGM estimate (observationally based estimates plus the model information). The primary limitation in the method is imperfections in the estimation of relative error for the individual fields. The SGM results for one year of data (July 1987 to June 1988) show important differences from the individual estimates, including model estimates as well as climatological estimates. In general, the SGM results are drier in the subtropics than the model and climatological results, reflecting the relatively dry microwave estimates that dominate the SGM in oceanic regions.