ALBERT

Description: We present a study of the distribution of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere with the goal of characterizing the observed variability. The air in the lowermost stratosphere is divided into two population groups based on Ertel's potential vorticity at 300 hPa. High (low) potential vorticity at 300 hPa indicates that the tropopause is low (high), and the identification of these two groups is made to account for the dynamic variability. Conditional probability distribution functions are used to define the statistics of the ozone distribution from both observations and a three-dimensional model simulation using winds from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System for transport. Ozone data sets include ozonesonde observations from northern midlatitude stations (1991-96) and midlatitude observations made by the Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE) on the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) (1994- 1998). The conditional probability distribution functions are calculated at a series of potential temperature surfaces spanning the domain from the midlatitude tropopause to surfaces higher than the mean tropical tropopause (approximately 380K). The probability distribution functions are similar for the two data sources, despite differences in horizontal and vertical resolution and spatial and temporal sampling. Comparisons with the model demonstrate that the model maintains a mix of air in the lowermost stratosphere similar to the observations. The model also simulates a realistic annual cycle. Results show that during summer, much of the observed variability is explained by the height of the tropopause. During the winter and spring, when the tropopause fluctuations are larger, less of the variability is explained by tropopause height. This suggests that more mixing occurs during these seasons. During all seasons, there is a transition zone near the tropopause that contains air characteristic of both the troposphere and the stratosphere. The relevance of the results to the assessment of the environmental impact of aircraft effluence is also discussed.

Description: Off-line models of the evolution of stratospheric constituents use meteorological information from a general circulation model (GCM) or from a data assimilation system (DAS). Here we focus on transport in the tropics and between the tropics and middle latitudes. Constituent fields from two simulations are compared with each other and with observations. One simulation uses winds from a GCM and the second uses winds from a DAS that has the same GCM at its core. Comparisons of results from the two simulations with observations from satellite, aircraft, and sondes are used to judge the realism of the tropical transport. Faithful comparisons between simulated fields and observations for O3, CH4, and the age-of-air are found for the simulation using the GCM fields. The same comparisons for the simulation using DAS fields show rapid upward tropical transport and excessive mixing between the tropics and middle latitudes. The unrealistic transport found in the DAS fields may be due to the failure of the GCM used in the assimilation system to represent the quasi-biennial oscillation. The assimilation system accounts for differences between the observations and the GCM by requiring implicit forcing to produce consistency between the GCM and observations. These comparisons suggest that the physical consistency of the GCM fields is more important to transport characteristics in the lower tropical stratosphere than the elimination bias with respect to meteorological observations that is accomplished by the DAS. The comparisons presented here show that GCM fields are more appropriate for long-term calculations to assess the impact of changes in stratospheric composition because the balance between photochemical and transport terms is likely to be represented correctly.

Description: Assimilated ozone is produced at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office by blending ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line transport model. The current system tends to overestimate the amount of lower stratospheric ozone. This is a region where ozone plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. Since these are all important applications of assimilated ozone products, effort is being directed towards reducing this bias. The SBUV ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone in the lower stratosphere, and its vertical distribution in particular, are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the assimilated lower stratospheric ozone fields to changes in the TOMS error-covariance modeling and the SBUV data selection has been investigated. The use of a spatially correlated TOMS error covariance model led to improvements in the product. However, withholding the SBUV/2 data for the layer between 63 and 126 hPa typically degraded the product, a result which vindicates the use of this layer ozone product, despite its known errors. These efforts to improve the lower stratospheric distribution will be extended to include a more advanced forecast error covariance model, and by assimilating ozone products from new instruments on Envisat and EOS Aura.

Description: Ozone distributions derived from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instruments and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) have been assimilated in near-real time at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office since January 2000. Observed-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals are the differences between the incoming ozone data and the co-located short-term model forecast. They are routinely produced and monitored in the assimilation process. Using examples from the NOAA-14 and NOAA-16 SBUV/2 and the EP-TOMS instruments, it is demonstrated that the monitoring of time series of O-F residual statistics is an effective method of identifying time-dependent changes in the observation-error characteristics of ozone. In addition, the data assimilation system was used to assist the validation of updated calibration coefficients for the NOAA-14 SBUV/2 instrument. This assimilation-based monitoring work will be extended to ozone data from instruments on new satellites: Envisat EOS, Aqua, and EOS Aura.

Description: The Data Assimilation Office will perform a short reanalysis with its next-generation data assimilation system. This reanalysis will start a few months prior to the eruption of El Chichon and continue to real time. It will cover the entire time span of the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite mission, and it is expected to be used in chemistry and climate applications. The sorts of improvements that are expected with this system and the status will be presented. In addition there has been a call in the United States for a National Reanalysis Project. This is envisioned as a sustained multi-agency activity coordinated (staggered) with the ECMWF reanalysis. The plans for the National Reanalysis Project will be discussed.

Description: The Data Assimilation Office at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center provides global 3D ozone fields at six-hour time intervals. Data from Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument are used in the assimilation. TOMS provides total column information and SBUV provides profile information, primarily above the ozone peak. Information below the ozone peak comes from the model. This paper will explore the realism of the assimilated ozone in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere through validation with ozonesondes, Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE), and Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM) observations. This work is in preparation of using the assimilated ozone in the radiative calculation for the meteorological assimilation as well as in the derivation of tropospheric ozone.

Description: Organizations in Europe, Australia, and the United States have recently broadened constituent assimilation activities beyond water vapor, which has been assimilated for years in the numerical weather prediction applications. Many of these activities have focused on ozone, with some efforts focused on the entire suite of reactive constituents that control the ozone distribution. This talk will draw from results from the near real-time ozone data assimilation system being run by NASA's Data Assimilation Office. This system utilizes ozone observations from both the TOMS and the SBUV instrument to generate global synoptic maps of ozone. The initial application of this product is to provide ozone fields to assist in the atmospheric corrections' that are necessary for the retrieval of information from other NASA instruments. The validation of the ozone assimilation system shows that the assimilated product agrees well with independent HALOE and ozonesonde observations. Aside from providing a global synoptic map, there is verifiable geophysical information at higher vertical resolution than either of the date types input into the system. This talk will establish the validation results and enumerate applications of the ozone data assimilation system. Results from exploratory research will be presented. The applications being considered include estimates of tropospheric ozone, provision of ozone fields for interactive retrievals, use of analysis increments from the assimilation to evaluate model performance, and development of long-term consistent three-dimensional global ozone fields. The results from the exploratory studies are promising, and help demonstrate how assumptions made in the development of the ozone assimilation impact the other applications. For instance, RMS errors in the current product are large near the tropopause, which is sensitive to the specification of vertical correlation functions, which in turns impacts the amount of ozone analyzed to be in the troposphere. How these sensitivities impact the different applications will also be discussed.

Description: The assimilation of observations of atmospheric constituents naturally divides into two major pieces. The first is the assimilation of trace gases whose variability is related to atmospheric motions. The second is the assimilation of trace gases which are sharply influenced by chemical exchange between different constituents. In order to advance beyond the initial successes of explorative investigation of assimilation techniques, tremendous challenges must be met to improve the geophysical integrity of assimilated data products. A subject of special interest is ozone near the tropopause. At the tropopause the information from both the observations and the model simulation becomes most uncertain. However a number of important geophysical parameters, e.g. stratosphere-troposphere exchange and tropospheric ozone, require the assimilation to have high accuracy at the tropopause. This talk will review the current status of the quality of assimilated data products near the tropopause, what must be done to improve the assimilation near the tropopause, and the intrinsic limitations that will require additional sources of information in order for the field to advance.

Description: The use of model-assimilated meteorological observations for stratospheric research has become routine since the late 1980's. The first stratospheric assimilation systems were straightforward extensions of systems developed for tropospheric weather forecasting. During the 1990's systems were developed that more directly addressed the specifics of stratospheric applications. These developments include better treatment of the satellite observations and improved models that better represent the residual circulation in the assimilated data sets. This talk will review the evolution of stratospheric data assimilation and its application, especially to problems of tracer transport. The new data assimilation currently under validation at NASA will be described in some detail, and results from the validation exercise will be presented. This data assimilation system sits at the foundation of a proposed stratospheric reanalysis that covers the era of the Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS).

Description: The composition, transport and photochemistry of the lowermost stratosphere, i.e., that part of the atmosphere which is above the tropopause, poleward of the tropics, and at potential temperature lower than the potential temperature of the tropical tropopause (about 380K) are of practical interest for understanding global ozone behavior. Because this region is a transition between transport regimes characterized by different scales of dynamics, it is especially difficult to model realistically. Through comparisons of observations of ozone, carbon dioxide and water vapor with results from a chemistry and transport model using winds from a global meteorological assimilation system, we have established that the model provides a good representation of several important aspects of constituent behavior. These include the constituent gradients near the tropopause as well as the annual cycle of constituents and the altitude dependence of the annual cycle from the tropopause into the middle stratosphere. This talk draws together these results to form a unified picture of transport into the lowermost extratropical stratosphere. In particular, the importance of convective transport to the distribution of both short-lived, and long-lived constituents in the lowermost stratosphere will be evaluated.