ALBERT

Anmerkung: Contents: Contributors. - Foreword by Paul J. Crutzen. - Preface by David Schimel. - Introduction. - 1 Uncertainties of Global Biogeochemical Predictions / E. D. Schulze, D. S. S. Schimel. - 1.1 Introduction. - 1.2 The IGBP Transect Approach. - 1.2.1 The Patagonian Transect. - 1.2.2 The Australian Transect. - 1.2.3 The European Transect. - 1.3 Variability in Processes. - 1.4 Biome Approach and Functional Types. - 1.5 New Approaches to Functional Diversity. - 1.6 Conclusions. - References. - 2 Uncertainties of Global Climate Predictions / L. Bengtsson. - 2.1 Introduction. - 2.2 Observational Evidence. - 2.3 Physical Rationale. - 2.3.1 Stochastic Forcing. - 2.3.2 Solar irradiation Changes. - 2.3.3 Volcanic Effects. - 2.3.4 Anthropogenic Effects. - 2.4 Response to Forcing of the Climate System. - 2.5 Results from Climate Change Prediction Experiments. - 2.6 Summary and Conclusions. - References. - 3 Uncertainties in the Atmospheric Chemical System / G. P. Brasseur, E. A. H. Holland. - 3.1 Introduction. - 3.2 Synthetic View of Chemical Processes in the Troposphere. - 3.3 The IMAGES Model. - 3.4 Changes in the Chemical Composition of the Global Troposphere. - 3.5 Concluding Remarks. - References. - 4 Inferring Biogeochemical Sources and Sinks from Atmospheric Concentrations: General Consideration and Applications in Vegetation Canopies / M. Raupach. - 4.1 Introduction. - 4.2 Scalar and Isotopic Molar Balances. - 4.2.1 General Principles. - 4.2.2 Single-Point Eulerian Equations. - 4.2.3 Source Terms for CO2. - 4.2.4 Single-Point Lagrangian Equations. - 4.3 Inverse Methods for Inferring Scalar Sources and Sinks in Canopies. - 4.3.1 General Principles. - 4.3.2 Localized Near Field Theory. - 4.3.3 The Dispersion Matrix. - 4.3.4 Turbulent Velocity Field. - 4.3.5 Solutions for Forward, Inverse and Implicit Problems. - 4.3.6 Field Tests. - 4.4 Inverse Methods and Isotopes in Canopies. - 4.4.1 Path Integrals and Keeling Plots. - 4.4.2 Inverse Lagrangian Analysis of Isotopic Composition. - 4.5 Summary and Conclusions. - Appendix A. - Appendix B. - References. - 5 Biogeophysical Feedbacks and the Dynamics of Climate / M. Claussen. - 5.1 Introduction. - 5.2 Synergisms. - 5.2.1 High Northern Latitudes. - 5.2.2 Subtropics. - 5.3 Multiple Equilibria. - 5.4 Transient Interaction. - 5.5 Perspectives. - References. - 6 Land-Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions and Monsoon Climate Change: A Paleo-Perspective / J. E. Kutzbach, Michael T. Coe, S. P. Harrison and M. T. Coe. - 6.1 Introduction. - 6.2 Response of the Monsoon to Orbital Forcing. - 6.3 Ocean Feedbacks on the Monsoon. - 6.4 Land-Surface Feedbacks on the Monsoon. - 6.5 Synergies between the Land, Ocean and Atmosphere. - 6.6 The Role of Climate Variability. - 6.7 Final Remarks. - References. - 7 Paleobiogeochemistry / I. C. Prentice, D. Raynaud. - 7.1 Introduction. - 7.2 Methane. - 7.3 Carbon Dioxide. - 7.4 Mineral Dust Aerosol. - 7.5 Scientific Challenges Posed by the Ice-Core Records. - 7.5.1 Methane. - 7.5.2 Carbon Dioxide. - 7.5.3 Mineral Dust Aerosol. - 7.6 Towards an Integrated Research Strategy for Palaeobiogeochemistry. - References. - 8 Should Phosphorus Availability Be Constraining Moist Tropical Forest Responses to Increasing CO2 Concentrations / J. Lloyd, M. I. Bird, E. M. Veenendaal and B. Kruijt. - 8.1 Introduction. - 8.2 Phosphorus in the Soils of the Moist Tropics. - 8.2.1 Soil Organic Phosphorus. - 8.2.2 Soil Inorganic Phosphorus. - 8.2.3 Soil Carbon/Phosphorus Interactions. - 8.3 States and Fluxes of Phosphorus in Moist Tropical Forests. - 8.3.1 Inputs and Losses of Phosphorus Through Rainfall, Dry Deposition and Weathering: Losses Via Leaching. - 8.3.2 Internal Phosphorus Flows in Moist Tropical Forests. - 8.3.3 Mechanisms for Enhanced Phosphorus Uptake in Low P Soils. - 8.4 Linking the Phosphorus and Carbon Cycles. - 8.4.1 To What Extent Does Phosphorus Availability Really Limit Moist Tropical Forest Productivity?. - 8.4.2 Tropical Plant Responses to Increases in Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations. - 8.4.3 Using a Simple Model to Examine CO2/Phosphorus Interactions in Tropical Forests. - References. - 9 Trees in Grasslands: Biogeochemical Consequences of Woody Plant Expansion / S. Archer, T. W. Boutton and K. A. Hibbard. - 9.1 Introduction. - 9.2 Woody Plant Encroachment in Grasslands and Savannas. - 9.3 The La Copita Case Study. - 9.3.1 Biogeographical and Historal Context. - 9.3.2 Herbaceous Retrogression and Soil Carbon Losses. - 9.3.3 Woody Plant Encroachment and Ecosystem Biogeochemistry. - 9.4 Degradation: Ecological Versus Socioeconomic. - 9.5 Implications for Ecosystem and Natural Resources Management. - 9.6 Summary. - References. - 10 Biogeochemistry in the Arctic: Patterns, Processes and Controls / S. Jonasson, F.S. Chapin, III and G. R. Shaver. - 10.1 Introduction. - 10.2 Tundra Organic Matter. - 10.2.1 Distribution of Organic Matter. - 10.2.2 Patterns and Controls of Organic Matter Turnover between Ecosystem Types. - 10.3 Tundra Nutrients. - 10.3.1 Nutrient Distribution and Controls of Nutrient Cycling. - 10.3.2 Nutrient Mineralization and Plant Nutrient Uptake. - 10.3.3 Are there Unaccounted Plant Sources of Limiting Nutrients?. - 10.4 Biogeochemical Responses to Experimental Ecosystem Manipulations. - 10.4.1 Applicability of Experimental Manipulations. - 10.4.2 Responses to Water Applications. - 10.4.3 Response to Nutrient Addition and Warming. - 10.4.4 Responses in Ecosystem Carbon Balance. - 10.5 Summary. - References. - 11 Evaporation in the Boreal Zone During Summer - Physics and Vegetation / F. M. Kelliher, I. Lloyd, C. Rebmann, C. Wirth and E. D. Schulze, D. D. Baldocchi. - 11.1 Introduction. - 11.2 Climate and Soil Water. - 11.3 Evaporation Theory. - 11.4 Evaporation During Summer and Rainfall. - 11.5 Forest Evaporation, Tree Life Form and Nitrogen. - 11.6 Conclusions. - References. - 12 Past and Future Forest Response to Rapid Climate Change / M.B. Davis. - 12.1 Introduction. - 12.2 Long-Distance Dispersal. - 12.3 Estimating Jump Distances. - 12.4 Interactions with Resident Vegetation - Constraints on Establishment. - 12.5 Interactions with Resident Vegetation - Competition for Light and Resulting Constraints on Population Growth. - 12.6 Conclusions. - References. - 13 Biogeochemical Models: Implicit vs. Explicit Microbiology / J. Schimel. - 13.1 Introduction. - 13.2 Microbiology in Biogeochemical Models. - 13.3 Dealing with Microbial Diversity in Models. - 13.4 Kinetic Effects of Microbial Population Size. - 13.5 Microbial Recovery from Stress. - 13.6 Conclusions. - References. - 14 The Global Soil Organic Carbon Pool / M. I. Bird, H. Santruckova, J. Lloyd and E. M. Veenendaal. - 14.1 Introduction: the Soil Carbon Pool and Global Change. - 14.2 Factors Affecting the Distribution of Soil Organic Carbon. - 14.3 Global Variations in the SOC Pool. - 14.4 The Limitations of Available Observational SOC Data. - 14.5 A Stratified Sampling Approach. - 14.6 Conclusions: Sandworld and Clayworld. - References. - 15 Plant Compounds and Their Turnover and Stability as Soil Organic Matter / G. Gleixner, C. Czimczik, C. Kramer, B. M. Lühker and M. W. I. Schmidt. - 15.1 Introduction. - 15.2 Pathways of Soil Organic Matter Formation. - 15.2.1 Formation and Decomposition of Biomass. - 15.2.2 The Influence of Environmental Conditions on SOM Formation. - 15.2.3 For

Anmerkung: Contents List of Acronyms List of Symbols Foreword Preface Prologue Chapter 1 Introduction to Ocean Dynamics 1.1 Types, Advantages, and Limitations of Ocean Models 1.2 Recent Examples 1.3 Governing Equations 1.4 Vorticity Conservation 1.5 Nondimensional Numbers and Scales of Motion 1.6 Geostrophic Flow and Thermal Wind 1.7 Inertial Motions 1.8 Ekman Layers 1.9 Sverdrup Transport 1.10 Western Boundary Intensification (Stommel Solution) 1.11 Gyre Scale Circulation (Munk Solution) 1.12 Barotropic Currents over Topography 1.13 Baroclinic Transport over Topography 1.14 Coastal Upwelling and Fronts 1.15 Mesoscale Eddies and Variability 1.16 Thermohaline Circulation and Box (Reservoir) Models 1.17 Numerical Models Chapter 2 Introduction to Numerical Solutions 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Architecture 2.1.2 Computational Errors 2.2 Ordinary Differential Equations 2.2.1 Runge-Kutta Method 2.3 Partial.Differential Equations 2.3.1 Consistency, Convergence, and Stability 2.3.2 Elliptic, Hyperbolic, and Parabolic Systems 2.4 Elliptic Equations and Steady-State Problems 2.4.1 Direct Solvers 2.4.2 Iterative Solvers and Relaxation Methods 2.4.3 Preconditioned Conjugate Gradient Method 2.4.4 Multigrid Methods 2.4.5 Pseudo-transient Method 2.5 Time Dependent Problems 2.5.1 Advection Equation and Hyperbolic Systems 2.5.2 Diffusion Equation and Parabolic Systems 2.6 Finite-Difference (Grid Point) Methods 2.6.1 Staggered Grids 2.6.2 Time Differencing and Filtering 2.6.3 Computational Grids 2.7 Spectral (Spectral Transform) Methods 2.8 Finite-Element Methods 2.8.1 Spectral Element Approach 2.9 Parameterization of Subgrid Scale Processes 2.10 Lateral Open Boundary Conditions 2.11 Computational Issues 2.12 Examples 2.12.1 Inertial Oscillations 2.12.2 Thermohaline Circulation 2.12.3 Normal Modes 2.12.4 Gyre Scale Circulation 2.12.5 Advection Problems 2.12.6 M.I.T. Nonhydrostatic Global Model Chapter 3 Equatorial Dynamics and Reduced Gravity Models Solutions 3.1 Oceanic Dynamical Response to Forcing 3.2 Governing Equations 3.3 Equatorial Waves 3.3.1 Kelvin Waves 3.3.2 Yanai Waves 3.3.3 Rossby Waves 3.3.4 Inertia-Gravity (Poincare) Waves 3.4 Equatorial Currents 3.5 Reduced Gravity Model of Equatorial Processes Chapter 4 Midlatitude Dynamics and Quasi-Geostrophic Models 4.1 Linear Motions 4.1.1 Inertia-Gravity (Sverdrup/Poincare) Waves 4.1.2 Kelvin Waves 298 4.1.3 Planetary Ross by Waves 4.1.4 Topographic Rossby Waves 4.2 Continuous Stratification 4.3 Geostrophic Adjustment and Instabilities 4.3.1 Geostrophic Adjustment 4.3.2 Instabilities 4.4 Spinup 4.5 Quasi-Geostrophic Models 4.5.1 Governing Equations 4.5.2 Applications Chapter 5 High-Latitude Dynamics and Sea-Ice Models 5.1 Salient Features of Ice Cover 5.2 Momentum Equations for Sea Ice 5.3 Constitutive Law for Sea Ice (Ice Rheology) 5.3.1 Viscous-Plastic Ice Rheology 5.3.2 Elastic-Viscous-Plastic Ice Rheology 5.4 Continuity Equations for Sea Ice 5.5 Response of Sea Ice to Storm Passage 5.6 Numerics 5.6.1 Governing Equations in Orthogonal Curvilinear Coordinates 5.6.2 Solution Technique Chapter 6 Tides and Tidal Modeling 6.1 Description of Tides 6.2 Formulation: Tidal Potential 6.3 Body, Load, Atmospheric, and Radiational Tides 6.3.1 Body (Solid Earth) Tides 6.3.2 Load Tides 6.3.3 Atmospheric Tides 6.3.4 Radiational Tides 6.4 Dynamical Theory of Tides: Laplace Tidal Equations 6.5 Equilibrium Theory of Tides 6.6 Tidal Analysis: Orthotides 6.7 Tidal Currents 6.8 Global Tidal Models 6.9 Regional Tidal Models 6.10 Geophysical Implications 6.10.1 Tidal Dissipation and LOD 6.10.2 Tidal Energetics 6.11 Changes in Earth's Rotation 6.12 Baroclinic (Internal) Tides 6.13 Long-Period Tides 6.14 Shallow Water Tides and Residual Currents 6.15 Summary Chapter 7 Coastal Dynamics and Barotropic Models 7.1 Wind- and Buoyancy-Driven Currents 7.2 Tidal Motions 7.3 Continental Shelf Waves 7.4 Modeling Shelf Circulation 7.5 Barotropic Models 7.5.1 Coastal Ocean Response to Wind Forcing 7.5.2 Storm Surges and Storm Surge Modeling 7.5.3 Response to Pressure Forcing Chapter 8 Data and Data Processing 8.1 In Situ Observational Data 8.1.1 XBT, CTD, CM, ADCP, and Drifter Data 8.1.2 Historical Hydrographic Data 8.1.3 Historical Marine Surface Data 8.2 Remotely Sensed Data 8.2.1 Sea Surface Temperature from IR Sensors 8.2.2 Sea Surface Winds from Microwave Sensors 8.2.3 Chlorophyll and Optical Clarity from Color Sensors 8.2.4 Sea Surface Height from Satellite Altimetry 8.3 NWP Products 8.4 Preprocessing of Observational Data and Postprocessing of Model Output 8.4.1 Graphics and Visualization of Model Output 8.4.2 Analyses Chapter 9 Sigma-Coordinate Regional and Coastal Models 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Governing Equations 9.3 Vertical Mixing 9.4 Boundary Conditions 9.5 Mode Splitting 9.6 Numerics 9.6.1 Vertical Direction 9.6.2 Horizontal Direction 9.7 Numerical Problems 9.8 Applications 9.9 Code Structure Chapter 10 Multilevel Basin Scale and Global Models 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Governing Equations 10.3 Isopycnal Diffusion 10.4 Architecture and Other Model Features 10.5 Applications 10.6 Hybrid s-Coordinate Models 10.7 Regional z-Level Models Chapter 11 Layered and Isopycnal Models 11.1 Layered Models 11.2 Isopycnal Models Chapter 12 Ice-Ocean Coupled Models 12.1 Sea-Ice Models 12.2 Coupled Ice-Ocean Models Chapter 13 Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models 13.1 Coupling between the Ocean and the Atmosphere 13.2 Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models 13.3 Regional Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Models Chapter 14 Data Assimilation and Nowcasts/ Forecasts 14.1 Introduction 14.2 Direct Insertion 14.3 Nudging 14.4 Statistical Assimilation Schemes 14.4.1 Kalman Filter 14.4.2 Reduced State Space Kalman Filters 14.4.3 Optimal Interpolation (OI) Scheme 14.5 Variational Methods 14.5.1 Adjoint Models 14.6 Predictability of Nonlinear Systems-Low Order Paradigms 14.7 Nowcasts/Forecasts in the Gulf of Mexico Appendix A Equations of State A.1 Equation of State for the Ocean A.2 Equation of State for the Atmosphere Appendix B Wavelet Transforms B.1 Introduction B.1.1 Theory B.1.2 Continuous Wavelet Transforms (CWT) B.1.3 Discrete Wavelet Transforms (DWT) B.2 Examples B.3 Wavelet Transforms and Stochastic Processes B.4 Two-Dimensional Wavelet Transforms B.5 Cross Wavelet Transforms (CrWT) B.6 Error Analysis Appendix C Empirical Orthogonal Functions and Empirical Normal Modes C.1 Empirical Orthogonal Functions C.1.1 Complex EOFs C.1.2 Singular Spectrum Analysis C.1.3 Extended EOFs C.1.4 Coupled Pattern Analysis C.2 Empirical Normal Modes Appendix D Units and Constants D.1 Useful Quantities D.1.1 SI (International System of Units) Units and Conventions D.1.2 Useful Conversion Factors D.1.3 Useful Universal Constants D.1.4 Useful Geodetic Constants D.1.5 Useful Physical Constants D.1.6 Useful Dynamical Quantities D.2 Important Scales and Quantities D.2.1 Length Scales D.2.2 Timescales D.2.3 Velocity Scales D.2.4 Nondimensional Quantities D.3 Useful Websites References Biographies Index

Anmerkung: Contents Prologue Acknowledgments List of Symbols PART I Foundations 1 INTRODUCTION: The Basic Challenge 1.1 The Climate System 1.2 Some Basic Observations 1.3 External Forcing 1.3.1 Astronomical Forcing 1.3.2 Tectonic Forcing 1.4 The Ice-Age Problem 2 TECHNIQUES FOR CLIMATE RECONSTRUCTION 2.1 Historical Methods 2.1.1 Direct Quantitative Measurements 2.1.2 Descriptive Accounts of General Environmental Conditions 2.2 Surficial Biogeologic Proxy Evidence 2.2.1 Annually Layered Life Forms 2.2.2 Surface Geomorphic Evidence 2.3 Conventional Nonisotopic Stratigraphic Analyses of Sedimentary Rock and Ice 2.3.1 Physical Indicators 2.3.2 Paleobiological Indicators (Fossil Faunal Types and Abundances) 2.4 Isotopic Methods 2.4.1 Oxygen Isotopes 2.4.2 Deuterium and Beryllium in Ice Cores 2.4.3 Stable Carbon Isotopes 2.4.4 Strontium and Osmium Isotopes 2.5 Nonisotopic Geochemical Methods 2.5.1 Cadmium Analysis 2.5.2 Greenhouse Gas Analysis of Trapped Air in Ice Cores 2.5.3 Chemical and Biological Constituents and Dust Layers in Ice Cores 2.6 Dating the Proxy Evidence (Geochronometry) 3 A SURVEY OF GLOBAL PALEOCLIMATIC VARIATIONS 3.1 The Phanerozoic Eon (Past 600 My) 3.2 The Cenozoic Era (Past 65 My) 3.3 The Plio-Pleistocene (Past 5 My) 3.4 Variations during the Last Ice Age: IRD Events 3.5 The Last Glacial Maximum (20 ka) 3.6 Postglacial Changes: The Past 20 ky 3.7 The Past 100 Years 3.8 The Generalized Spectrum of Climatic Variance 3.9 A Qualitative Discussion of Causes 4 GENERAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS 4.1 The Fundamental Equations 4.2 Time Averaging and Stochastic Forcing 4.3 Response Times and Equilibrium 4.4 Spatial Averaging 4.5 Climatic-Mean Mass and Energy Balance Equations 4.5.1 The Water Mass Balance 4.5.2 Energy Balance 5 SPECIAL THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR PALEOCLIMATE: Structuring a Dynamical Approach 5.1 A Basic Problem: Noncalculable Levels of Energy and Mass Flow 5.2 An Overall Strategy 5.3 Notational Simplifications for Resolving Total Climate Variability 5.4 A Structured Dynamical Approach 5.5 The External Forcing Function, F 5.5.1 Astronomical/Cosmic Forcing 5.5.2 Tectonic Forcing 6 BASIC CONCEPTS OF DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSIS: Prototypical Climatic Applications 6.1 Local (or Internal) Stability 6.2 The Generic Cubic Nonlinearity 6.3 Structural (or External) Stability: Elements of Bifurcation Theory 6.4 Multivariable Systems 6.4.1 The Two-Variable Phase Plane 6.5 A Prototype Two-Variable Model 6.5.1 Sensitivity of Equilibria to Changes in Parameters: Prediction of the Second Kind 6.5.2 Structural Stability 6.6 The Prototype Two-Variable System as a Stochastic-Dynamical System: Effects of Random Forcing 6.6.1 The Stochastic Amplitude 6.6.2 Structural Stochastic Stability 6.7 More Than Two-Variable Systems: Deterministic Chaos PART II Physics of the Separate Domains 7 MODELING THE ATMOSPHERE AND SURFACE STATE AS FAST-RESPONSE COMPONENTS 7.1 The General Circulation Model 7.2 Lower Resolution Models: Statistical-Dynamical Models and the Energy Balance Model 7.2.1 A Zonal-Average SDM 7.2.2 Axially Asymmetric SDMs 7.2.3 The Complete Time-Average State 7.3 Thermodynamic Models 7.3.1 Radiative-Convective Models 7.3.2 Vertically Averaged Models (the EBM) 7.4 The Basic Energy Balance Model 7.5 Equilibria and Dynamical Properties of the Zero-Dimensional (Global Average) EBM 7.6 Stochastic Resonance 7.7 The One-Dimensional (Latitude-Dependent) EBM 7.8 Transitivity Properties of the Atmospheric and Surface Climatic State: Inferences from a GCM 7.9 Closure Relationships Based on GCM Sensitivity Experiments 7.9.1 Surface Temperature Sensitivity 7.10 Formal Feedback Analysis of the Fast-Response Equilibrium State 7.11 Paleoclimatic Simulations 8 THE SLOW-RESPONSE "CONTROL" VARIABLES: An Overview 8.1 The Ice Sheets 8.1.1 Key Variables 8.1.2 Observations 8.2 Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide 8.3 The Thermohaline Ocean State 8.4 A Three-Dimensional Phase-Space Trajectory 9 GLOBAL DYNAMICS OF THE ICE SHEETS 9.1 Basic Equations and Boundary Conditions 9.2 A Scale Analysis 9.3 The Vertically Integrated Ice-Sheet Model 9.4 The Surface Mass Balance 9.5 Basal Temperature and Melting 9.6 Deformable Basal Regolith 9.7 Ice Streams and Ice Shelves 9.8 Bedrock Depression 9.9 Sea Level Change and the Ice Sheets: The Depression-Calving Hypothesis 9.10 Paleoclimatic Applications of the Vertically Integrated Model 9.11 A Global Dynamical Equation for Ice Mass 10 DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERIC CO2 10.1 The Air-Sea Flux, Q↑ 10.1.1 Qualitative Analysis of the Factors Affecting Q↑ 10.1.2 Mathematical Formulation of the Ocean Carbon Balance 10.1.3 A Parameterization for Q↑ 10.2 Terrestrial Organic Carbon Exchange, W↑G 10.2.1 Sea Level Change Effects 10.2.2 Thermal Effects 10.2.3 Ice Cover Effects 10.2.4 Long-Term Terrestrial Organic Burial, W↓G 10.2.5 The Global Mass Balance of Organic Carbon 10.3 Outgassing Processes, V↑ 10.4 Rock Weathering Downdraw, W↓ 10.5 A Global Dynamical Equation for Atmospheric CO2 10.6 Modeling the Tectonically Forced CO2 Variations, µˆ : Long-Term Rock Processes 10.6.1 The Long-Term Oceanic Carbon Balance 10.6.2 The GEOCARB Model 10.7 Overview of the Full Global Carbon Cycle 11 SIMPLIFIED DYNAMICS OF THE THERMOHALINE OCEAN STATE 11.1 General Equations 11.1.1 Boundary Conditions 11.2 A Prototype Four-Box Ocean Model 11.3 The Wind-Driven, Local-Convective, and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 11.3.1 The Wind-Driven Circulation: Gyres and Upwelling 11.3.2 Local Convective Overturnings and Baroclinic Eddy Circulations 11.4 The Two-Box Thermohaline Circulation Model: Possible Bimodality of the Ocean State 11.4.1 The Two-Box System 11.4.2 A Simple Model of the TH Circulation 11.4.3 Meridional Fluxes 11.4.4 Dynamical Analysis of the Two-Box Model 11.5 Integral Equations for the Deep Ocean State 11.5.1 The Deep Ocean Temperature 11.5.2 The Deep Ocean Salinity 11.6 Global Dynamical Equations for the Thermohaline State: θ and Sφ PART III Unified Dynamical Theory 12 THE COUPLED FAST- AND SLOW-RESPONSE VARIABLES AS A GLOBAL DYNAMICAL SYSTEM: Outline of a Theory of Paleoclimatic Variation 12.1 The Unified Model: A Paleoclimate Dynamics Model 12.2 Feedback-Loop Representation 12.3 Elimination of the Fast-Response Variables: The Center Manifold 12.4 Sources of Instability: The Dissipative Rate Constants 12.5 Formal Separation into Tectonic Equilibrium and Departure Equations 13 FORCED EVOLUTION OF THE TECTONIC-MEAN CLIMATIC STATE 13.1 Effects of Changing Solar Luminosity and Rotation Rate 13.1.1 Solar Luminosity (S) 13.1.2 Rotation Rate (Ω) 13.2 General Effects of Changing Land-Ocean Distribution and Topography (h) 13.3 Effects of Long-Term Variations of Volcanic and Cosmic Dust and Bolides 13.4 Multimillion-Year Evolution of CO2 13.4.1 The GEOCARB Solution 13.4.2 First-Order Response of Global Ice Mass and Deep Ocean Temperature to Tectonic CO2 Variations 13.5 Possible Role of Salinity-Driven Instability of the Tectonic-Mean State 13.6 Snapshot Atmospheric and Surficial Equilibrium Responses to Prescribed y-Fields Using GCMs 14 THE LATE CENOZOIC ICE-AGE DEPARTURES: An Overview of Previous Ideas and Models 14.1 General Review: Forced vs. Free Models 14.1.1 Models in Which Earth-Orbital Forcing Is Necessary 14.1.2 Instability-Driven (Auto-oscillatory) Models 14.1.3 Hierarchical Classification in Terms of Increasing Physical Complexity 14.2 Forced Ice-Line Models (Box 1, Fig. 14-1) 14.3 Ice-Sheet Inertia Models 14.3.1 The Simplest Forms (Box 2) 14.3.2 More Physically Based Ice-Sheet Models: First Applications 14.3.3 Direct Bedrock Effects (Box 3) 14.3.4 Bedrock-Calving Effects (Box 4) 14.3.5 Basal Meltwater and Sliding (Box 5) 14.3.6 Ice Streams and Ice Shelf Effects 14.3.7 Continental Ice-Sheet Movement (Box 6) 14.3.8 Three-Dimensional (λ, φ, hI) Ice-Sheet Models 14.4 The Need for Enhancement of the Coupled Ice-Sheet/Atmospheric Climate Models 14.5 Ice-Sheet Variables Coupled with Additional Slow-Response Variables 14.5.1 Regolith Mass, mr (Box 7) 14.5.2 The Deep Ocean Te