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  • Articles  (428,343)
  • Oxford University Press  (428,343)
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  • 1
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with magni- tude M 5.0 in the Italian region. We compared the forecasting performance of EEPAS with that of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) forecasting model, using the most recent consistency tests developed within the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictabil- ity (CSEP). The application of such models for the forecasting of Italian target earthquakes seems to show peculiar characteristics for each of them. In particular, the ETAS model showed higher performance for short-term forecasting, in contrast, the EEPAS model showed higher forecasting performance for the medium/long-term. In this work, we compare the performance of EEPAS and ETAS models with that obtained by a deterministic model based on the occur- rence of strong foreshocks (FORE model) using an alarm-based approach. We apply the two rate-based models (ETAS and EEPAS) estimating the best probability threshold above which we issue an alarm. The model parameters and probability thresholds for issuing the alarms are calibrated on a learning data set from 1990 to 2011 during which 27 target earthquakes have occurred within the analysis region. The pseudo-prospective forecasting performance is as- sessed on a validation data set from 2012 to 2021, which also comprises 27 target earthquakes. Tests to assess the forecasting capability demonstrate that, even if all models outperform a purely random method, which trivially forecast earthquake proportionally to the space–time occupied by alarms, the EEPAS model exhibits lower forecasting performance than ETAS and FORE models. In addition, the relative performance comparison of the three models demonstrates that the forecasting capability of the FORE model appears slightly better than ETAS, but the difference is not statistically significant as it remains within the uncertainty level. However, truly prospective tests are necessary to validate such results, ideally using new testing procedures allowing the analysis of alarm-based models, not yet available within the CSEP.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1541–1551
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Comparison betwee earthquake forecasting methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: To understand the seismic hazard of a subduction zone, it is necessary to know the geometry, location and mechanical characteristics of the interplate boundary below which an oceanic plate is thrust downward. By considering the azimuthal dependence of converted P-to-S (Ps) amplitudes in receiver functions, we have detected the interplate boundary in the Makran subduction zone, revealing significant seismic anisotropy at the base of the accretionary wedge above the slab before it bends down beneath the Jaz Murian basin. This anisotropic feature aligns with a zone of reduced seismic velocity and a high primary/secondary wave velocity ratio (Vp/Vs), as documented in previous studies. The presence of this low-velocity highly anisotropic layer at the base of the accretionary wedge, likely representing a low-strength shear zone, could possibly explain the unusually wide accretionary wedge in Makran. Additionally, it may impact the location and width of the locked zone along the interplate boundary.
    Description: Iranian National Science Foundation (INSF)
    Description: Published
    Description: 64-74
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake hazards, Seismic anisotropy, Crustal structure, Subduction zone processes ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space– time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (ψ ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, Cal- ifornia and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with Mw ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time in- dependent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1700
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Earthquake forecasting
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 4
    Publication Date: 2024-04-09
    Description: Serpentinites are polymineralic rocks distributed almost ubiquitously across the globe in active tectonic regions. Magnetite-rich serpentinites are found in the low-strain domains of serpen- tinite shear zones, which act as potential sites of nucleation of unstable slip. To assess the potential of earthquake nucleation in these materials, we investigate the link between me- chanical properties and fabric of these rocks through a suite of laboratory shear experiments. Our experiments were done at room temperature and cover a range of normal stress and slip velocity from 25 to 100 MPa and 0.3 to 300 μm s −1 , respecti vel y. We show that magnetite-rich serpentinites are ideal materials since they display strong sensitivity to the loading rate and are susceptible to nucleation of unstable slip, especially at low forcing slip velocities. We also aim at the integration of mechanical and microstructural results to describe the underlying mechanisms that produce the macroscopic behaviour. We show that mineralogical composi- tion and mineral structure dictates the coexistence of two deformation mechanisms leading to stable and unstable slip. The weakness of phyllosilicates allows for creep during the interseis- mic phase of the laboratory seismic cycle while favouring the restoration of a load-bearing granular framework, responsible of the nucleation of unstable events. During dynamic slip, fault zone shear fabric determines the mode of slip, producing either asymmetric or Gaussian slip time functions for either fast or slow events. We report rate/state friction parameters and integrate our mechanical data with microstructural observations to shed light on the mech- anisms dictating the complexity of laborator y ear thquakes. We show that mineralogical and fabric heterogeneities control fault slip behaviour.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1778–1797
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 5
    Publication Date: 2024-04-05
    Description: Secondary microseismic noise is generated by non-linear interactions between ocean waves at the ocean surface. We present here the theory for computing the site effect of the ocean layer upon body waves generated by noise sources distributed along the ocean surface. By defining the wavefield as the superposition of plane waves, we show that the ocean site effect can be described as the constructive interference of multiply reflected P waves in the ocean that are then converted to either P or SV waves at the ocean–crust interface. We observe that the site effect varies strongly with period and ocean depth, although in a different way for body waves than for Rayleigh waves. We also show that the ocean site effect is stronger for P waves than for S waves. We validate our computation by comparing the theoretical noise body wave sources with the sources inferred from beamforming analysis of the three seismogram components recorded by the Southern California Seismic Network. We use rotated traces for the beamforming analysis, and we show that we clearly detect P waves generated by ocean gravity wave interactions along the track of typhoon Ioke (2006 September). We do not detect the corresponding SV waves, and we demonstrate that this is because their amplitude is too weak.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1096-1106
    Description: 1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: Body waves ; Site effects ; Theoretical Seismology ; 04. Solid Earth::04.06. Seismology::04.06.99. General or miscellaneous
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 6
    Publication Date: 2024-04-03
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: Estimation of local seismic response plays a key role in assessing local seismic hazard and particularly in the design of shaking scenarios. Modelling local seismic response involves knowing of the shear wave velocity (Vs) and quality factor (Qs) profiles for the site in question. The many techniques that have been developed to assess Vs in surface deposits produce reliable measurements of Vs , but these rarely correspond to direct measurements of Qs . The latter is often considered through damping measures from laboratory tests on small-scale soil samples, which can provide information primarily on intrinsic attenuation, neglecting the contribution of scattering effects. In this paper, using seismic recordings obtained at the surface and in boreholes at 100 m depth, we estimate an average value of Qs of some characteristic alluvial deposits of the Po Plain (northern Italy). Data come from a microseismic network which sampled an almost uniform lithology in the central Po Plain and consisted of three surface and four borehole stations with an interstation distance of about 2 km. The average value of Qs of the shallowest 100 m of the sedimentary strata, Qs100, is estimated by considering: (1) the high-frequency attenuation of seismic waves due to propagation through the corresponding stratigraphy and (2) the interference between incident and surface-reflected waves observed at borehole stations. We parametrize the first through k0_100, the difference between the values of the spectral decay parameter kappa (k) estimated at the surface and at the boreholes depth, respectively. We use the second in order to compute Vs100, the time-averaged Vs referred to the uppermost 100 m stratigraphy. We obtain: k0_100 = (11 ± 3) ms, Vs100 = (309 ± 11) m s −1 and Qs100 = 31 ± 10. At the surface, the estimated values of the site-specific kappa, k0, are found to range from 75 to 79 ms. As expected, these results are in good agreement with studies performed in other sites characterized by sandy or clayey lithologies, and can be usefully used in site response analysis at sites where the rigidity is mainly controlled by lithostatic pressure.
    Description: Comune di Minerbio (grant: “Sperimentazione ILG Minerbio”; grant number: 0913.010).
    Description: Published
    Description: 2075–2094
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake ground motions ; Seismic attenuation ; Site effects ; Wave propagation ; Wave scattering and diffraction ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 7
    Publication Date: 2024-03-19
    Description: Accurate quantification of seismic activity in volcanic regions is an important asset for im- proving hazard and risk assessment. This is especially true for densely populated areas, as in the case of Etna volcano (Southern Italy). There, the volcanic hazard is amplified by the seismic risk of acti ve faults, especiall y on the eastern flank of the volcano. In such a context, it is common to rely on moment magnitude ( M W ) to characterize seismicity and monitor the energy released during an eruption. In this study, we calculate the moment-based magnitude ( M W ) for selected seismic data sets, using different approaches in distinct magnitude ranges to cover the widest possible range of magnitude that characterizes Etna’s seismicity . Specifically , we computed the M W from a data set of moment tensor solutions of earthquakes that occurred in the magnitude range 3.4 ≤M L ≤4.8 during 2005–2020; we created a data set of seismic moment and associated M W for earthquakes 1.0 ≤M L 〈 3.4 obtained by analysing source spectra; we fine-tuned two relationships, for shallow and deep earthquakes, to obtain M W from response spectra. Finally, we calibrated a specific relationship between M W and M L for the Etna area earthquakes in the range 1.0 ≤M L ≤4.8. All the empirical relationships obtained in this study can be applied in real-time analysis of the seismicity to provide fast and robust information on the released seismic energy.
    Description: INGV-DPC 2012- 2021 agreement; B2 DPC-INGV 2019-2021 project; IMPACT Department strategic project ; ‘Project PE0000005–RETURN (NRRP)
    Description: Published
    Description: 2520-2534
    Description: OST2 Deformazione e Hazard sismico e da maremoto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquak e source observations ; Earthquake hazards ; Time series analysis ; Full moment tensor
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: This study presents a new robust statistical framework, in which to measure relative differences, or deviations from a hypothetical reference value, of Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Moreover, it applies this method to recent seismicity in Italy, to find possible changes of earthquake magnitude distribution in time and space. The method uses bootstrap techniques, which have no prior assumptions about the distribution of data, keeping their basic features. Excluding Central Italy, no significative b-value variation is found, revealing that the frequency-magnitude distribution exponent is substantially stable or that data are not able to reveal hidden variations. Considering the small size of examined magnitude samples, we cannot definitively decide if the higher b-values in Central Italy, consistently founded by all applied tests, have a physical origin or result from a statistical bias. In any case, they indicate short-lived excursions which have a temporary nature and, therefore, cannot be associated solely to spatial variations in tectonic framework. Both the methodological issues and the results of the application to seismicity in Italy show that a correct assessing of b-value changes requests appropriate statistics, that accurately quantify the low accuracy and precision of b-value estimation for small magnitude samples.
    Description: Published
    Description: 729–740
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2024-03-12
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: We present the results from a fully unconstrained moment tensor inversion of induced seismic events in a complex and high seismic hazard region (Val d’Agri basin, Southern Italy). The study area hosts two well-documented cases of induced microseismicity linked to (i) a wastewater injection well of a giant oilfield (the largest in onshore Europe), and (ii) severe seasonal level changes of an artificial lake. In order to gather information on the non-doublecouple components of the source and to better understand the rupture mechanisms, we analyse seismic events recorded during daily injection tests in the disposal well. The computed moment tensors have significant non-double-couple components that correlate with the well-head injection pressure. The injection parameters strongly influence the rupture mechanism that can be interpreted as due to the opening/closing of a fracture network inside a fault zone of a pre-existing thrust fault. For the case of the reservoir-induced seismicity, no direct correlations are observed with the loading/unloading of the reservoir.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1617–1627
    Description: OST3 Vicino alla faglia
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
    Publication Date: 2024-01-30
    Description: In the context of global warming, the melting of arctic permafrost raises the threat of a re-emergence of microorganisms some of which were shown to remain viable in ancient frozen soils for up to half a million years. In order to evaluate this risk, it is of interest to acquire a better knowledge of the composition of the microbial communities found in this understudied environment. Here we present a metagenomics analysis of 12 soil samples from Russian Arctic and subarctic pristine areas: Chukotka, Yakutia, and Kamchatka, including 9 permafrost samples collected at various depths. These large datasets (9.2 1011 total bp) were assembled (525,313 contigs 〉 5kb), their encoded protein contents predicted, then used to perform taxonomical assignments of bacterial, archaeal, and eukaryotic organisms, as well as DNA viruses. The various samples exhibited variable DNA contents and highly diverse taxonomic profiles showing no obvious relationship with their locations, depths or deposit ages. Bacteria represented the largely dominant DNA fraction (95%) in all samples, followed by archaea (3.2%), surprisingly little eukaryotes (0.5%), and viruses (0.4%). Although no common taxonomic pattern was identified, the samples shared unexpected high frequencies of β-lactamase genes, almost 0.9 copy/bacterial genome. In addition of known environmental threats, the particularly intense warming of the Arctic might thus enhance the spread of bacterial antibiotic resistances, today's major challenge in public health. β-lactamases were also observed at high frequency in other types of soils, suggesting their general role in the regulation of bacterial populations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
    Format: application/pdf
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