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  • National Academy of Sciences  (38,865)
  • American Meteorological Society
  • Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
  • 2010-2014  (61,049)
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  • 1
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    Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclone Rainfall to Idealized Global Scale Forcings (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2020-11-18
    Description: Heavy rainfall and flooding associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) are responsible for a large number of fatalities and economic damage worldwide. Despite their large socio-economic impacts, research into heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs has received limited attention to date, and still represents a major challenge. Our capability to adapt to future changesin heavy rainfall and flooding associated with TCs is inextricably linked to and informed by ourunderstanding of the sensitivity of TC rainfall to likely future forcing mechanisms. Here we use a set of idealized high-resolution atmospheric model experiments produced as part of the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group activity to examine TC response to idealized global-scale perturbations: the doubling of CO2, uniform 2K increases in global sea surface temperature(SST), and their combined impact. As a preliminary but key step, daily rainfall patterns ofcomposite TCs within climate model outputs are first compared and contrasted to the observational records. To assess similarities and differences across different regions in response to the warming scenarios, analyses are performed at the global and hemispheric scales and in six global TC ocean basins. The results indicate a reduction in TC daily precipitation rates in the doubling CO2 scenario (on the order of 5% globally), and an increase in TC rainfall rates associated with a uniform increase of 2K in SST (both alone and in combination with CO2 doubling; on the order of 10-20% globally).
    Description: Published
    Description: 4622–4641
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; precipitation ; rainfall ; extreme events ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 2
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    Hurricanes and climate: the U.S. CLIVAR working group on hurricanes (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-06-16
    Description: While a quantitative climate theory of tropical cyclone formation remains elusive, considerable progress has been made recently in our ability to simulate tropical cyclone climatologies and understand the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation. Climate models are now able to simulate a realistic rate of global tropical cyclone formation, although simulation of the Atlantic tropical cyclone climatology remains challenging unless horizontal resolutions finer than 50 km are employed. This article summarizes published research from the idealized experiments of the Hurricane Working Group of U.S. CLIVAR (CLImate VARiability and predictability of the ocean-atmosphere system). This work, combined with results from other model simulations, has strengthened relationships between tropical cyclone formation rates and climate variables such as mid-tropospheric vertical velocity, with decreased climatological vertical velocities leading to decreased tropical cyclone formation. Systematic differences are shown between experiments in which only sea surface temperature is increased versus experiments where only atmospheric carbon dioxide is increased, with the carbon dioxide experiments more likely to demonstrate the decrease in tropical cyclone numbers previously shown to be a common response of climate models in a warmer climate. Experiments where the two effects are combined also show decreases in numbers, but these tend to be less for models that demonstrate a strong tropical cyclone response to increased sea surface temperatures. Further experiments are proposed that may improve our understanding of the relationship between climate and tropical cyclone formation, including experiments with two-way interaction between the ocean and the atmosphere and variations in atmospheric aerosols.
    Description: Published
    Description: 997–1017
    Description: 4A. Clima e Oceani
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: tropical cyclones ; hurricanes ; climate change ; CLIVAR ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    The Holocene temperature conundrum (2014)
    National Academy of Sciences
    In:  EPIC3PNAS, National Academy of Sciences, 111(34), pp. E3501-E3505, ISSN: 0027-8424
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-12-09
    Description: A recent temperature reconstruction of global annual temperature shows Early Holocene warmth followed by a cooling trend through the Middle to Late Holocene [Marcott SA, et al., 2013, Science 339(6124):1198–1201]. This global cooling is puzzling because it is opposite from the expected and simulated global warming trend due to the retreating ice sheets and rising atmospheric greenhouse gases. Our critical reexamination of this contradiction between the reconstructed cooling and the simulated warming points to potentially significant biases in both the seasonality of the proxy reconstruction and the climate sensitivity of current climate models.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 4
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    An Energy Compartment Model for Propagation, Nonlinear Interaction, and Dissipation of Internal Gravity Waves (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Physical Oceanography, American Meteorological Society, 44(8), pp. 2093-2106, ISSN: 0022-3670
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-07-16
    Description: The recently proposed Internal Wave Dissipation, Energy and Mixing (IDEMIX) model, describing the propagation and dissipation of internal gravity waves in the ocean, is extended. Compartments describing the energy contained in the internal tides and the near-inertial waves at low, vertical wavenumber are added to a compartment of the wave continuum at higher wavenumbers. Conservation equations for each compartment are derived based on integrated versions of the radiative transfer equation of weakly interacting waves. The compartments interact with each other by the scattering of tidal energy to the wave continuum by triad wave– wave interactions, which are strongly enhanced equatorward of 288 due to parametric subharmonic instability of the tide and by scattering to the continuum of both tidal and near-inertial wave energy over rough topography and at continental margins. Global numerical simulations of the resulting model using observed stratification, forcing functions, and bottom topography yield good agreement with available observations.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 5
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    Modeled Trends in Antarctic Sea Ice Thickness (2014)
    American Meteorological Society
    In:  EPIC3Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, 27(10), pp. 3784-3801, ISSN: 0894-8755
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-05-15
    Description: Unlike the rapid sea ice losses reported in the Arctic, satellite observations show an overall increase in Antarctic sea ice concentration over recent decades. However, observations of decadal trends in Antarctic ice thickness, and hence ice volume, do not currently exist. In this study a model of the Southern Ocean and its sea ice, forced by atmospheric reanalyses, is used to assess 1992–2010 trends in ice thickness and volume. The model successfully reproduces observations of mean ice concentration, thickness, and drift, and decadal trends in ice concentration and drift, imparting some confidence in the hindcasted trends in ice thickness. The model suggests that overall Antarctic sea ice volume has increased by approximately 30 km3 yr−1 (0.4% yr−1) as an equal result of areal expansion (20 × 103 km2 yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1) and thickening (1.5 mm yr−1 or 0.2% yr−1). This ice volume increase is an order of magnitude smaller than the Arctic decrease, and about half the size of the increased freshwater supply from the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Similarly to the observed ice concentration trends, the small overall increase in modeled ice volume is actually the residual of much larger opposing regional trends. Thickness changes near the ice edge follow observed concentration changes, with increasing concentration corresponding to increased thickness. Ice thickness increases are also found in the inner pack in the Amundsen and Weddell Seas, where the model suggests that observed ice-drift trends directed toward the coast have caused dynamical thickening in autumn and winter. Modeled changes are predominantly dynamic in origin in the Pacific sector and thermodynamic elsewhere.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 6
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    Ocean surface temperature variability: Large model-data differences at decadal and longer periods (2014)
    National Academy of Sciences
    In:  EPIC3Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Sciences, ISSN: 0027-8424
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-02-08
    Description: The variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) at multidecadal and longer timescales is poorly constrained, primarily because instrumental records are short and proxy records are noisy. Through applying a new noise filtering technique to a global network of late Holocene SST proxies, we estimate SST variability between annual and millennial timescales. Filtered estimates of SST variability obtained from coral, foraminifer, and alkenone records are shown to be consistent with one another and with instrumental records in the frequency bands at which they overlap. General circulation models, however, simulate SST variability that is systematically smaller than instrumental and proxy-based estimates. Discrepancies in variability are largest at low latitudes and increase with timescale, reaching two orders of magnitude for tropical variability at millennial timescales. This result implies major deficiencies in observational estimates or model simulations, or both, and has implications for the attribution of past variations and prediction of future change.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 7
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    The INGV-CMCC Seasonal Prediction System: improved ocean initial conditions (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: The development of the INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia)-CMCC (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS) is documented. In this SPS the ocean initial conditions estimation includes a Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation procedure for the assimilation of temperature and salinity profiles at the global scale. Nine member ensemble forecasts have been produced for the period 1991-2003 for two starting dates per year in order to assess the impact of the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations (i.e.: without assimilation of subsurface profiles during ocean initialization), we showed that the improved ocean initialization increases the skill in the prediction of tropical Pacific SSTs in our system for boreal winter forecasts. Considering the forecast of the El Ni˜no 1997-1998, the data assimilation in the ocean initial conditions leads to a considerable improvement in the representation of its onset and development. Our results indicate a better prediction of global scale surface climate anomalies for the forecasts started in November, probably due to the improvement in the tropical Pacific. For boreal winter, in both tropics and extra tropics, we show significant increases in the capability of the system to discriminate above normal and below normal temperature anomalies.
    Description: Published
    Description: 2930-2952
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: open
    Keywords: ocean modelling ; global climate models ; seasonal forecast ; coupled models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 8
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    Quality Assessment of a 1985-2007 Mediterranean Sea re-analysis (2011)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: A simulation and two re-analyses from 1985 to 2007 have been produced for the Mediterranean Sea using different assimilation schemes: a Reduced Order Optimal Interpolation (SOFA) and a three-dimensional variational scheme (OceanVar). The observational data set consists of vertical temperature and salinity in-situ profiles and along-track satellite sea-level anomalies; daily mean fields of satellite sea surface temperature are used for correcting the air-sea fluxes. This paper assesses the quality of the re-analyses with respect to observations and the simulation. Both the SOFA and OceanVar schemes give very similar root mean square errors and biases for temperature and salinity fields compared with the assimilated observations. The largest errors are at the thermocline level and in regions of large eddy field variability. However, OceanVar gives 20% better results for sea-level anomaly root mean square error.
    Description: This work was supported by the European Commision MyOcean Project (SPA.2007.1.1.01-development of upgrade capabilities for existing GMES fast-track services and related operational services; Grant Agreement: 218812-1-FP7-SPACE 2007- 1) and by the CIRCE project, founded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme through contract no. 036961. We would also thank the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) and the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC) for facilities support.
    Description: In press
    Description: 4.6. Oceanografia operativa per la valutazione dei rischi in aree marine
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: reserved
    Keywords: Mediterranean Sea Circulation ; Data Assimilation ; re-analysis ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.05. Operational oceanography ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.03. Physical::03.03.02. General circulation
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 9
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    Assimilating Along-Track Altimetric Observations through Local Hydrostatic Adjustment in a Global Ocean Variational Assimilation System (2012)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-03
    Description: A global ocean three-dimensional variational data assimilation system was developed with the aim of assimilating along-track sea level anomaly observations, along with in situ observations from bathythermographs and conventional sea stations. All the available altimetric data within the period October 1992–January 2006 were used in this study. The sea level corrections were covariated with vertical profiles of temperature and salinity according to the bivariate definition of the background-error vertical covariances. Sea level anomaly observational error variance was carefully defined as a sum of instrumental, representativeness, observation operator, and mean dynamic topography error variances. The mean dynamic topography was computed from the model long-term mean sea surface height and adjusted through an optimal interpolation scheme to account for observation minus first-guess biases. Results show that the assimilation of sea level anomaly observations improves the model sea surface height skill scores as well as the subsurface temperature and salinity fields. Furthermore, the estimate of the tropical and subtropical surface circulation is clearly improved after assimilating altimetric data. Nonnegligible impacts of the mean dynamic topography used have also been found: compared to a gravimeter-based mean dynamic topography the use of the mean dynamic topography discussed in this paper improves both the consistency with sea level anomaly observations and the verification skill scores of temperature and salinity in the tropical regions. Furthermore, the use of a mean dynamic topography computed from the model long-term sea surface height mean without observation adjustments results in worsened verification skill scores and highlights the benefits of the current approach for deriving the mean dynamic topography.
    Description: European Commission WP4 Fondazione Cassa di Risparmio di Bologna Cnes
    Description: Published
    Description: 738-754
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: 4.6. Oceanografia operativa per la valutazione dei rischi in aree marine
    Description: 5.4. Banche dati di geomagnetismo, aeronomia, clima e ambiente
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: partially_open
    Keywords: Data assimilation ; Satellite observations ; Ocean models ; Sea level ; In situ observations ; Variational analysis ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.01. Analytical and numerical modeling ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.03. Global climate models ; 03. Hydrosphere::03.01. General::03.01.04. Ocean data assimilation and reanalysis
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 10
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    Testing for the possible influence of unknown climate forcing upon global temperature increases from 1950 to 2000 (2013)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-04-04
    Description: Global-scale variations in the climate system over the last half of the twentieth century. including long-term increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures. are consistent with concurrent human-induced emissions of radiatively active gases and aerosols. However, such consistency does not preclude the possible influence of other forcing agents, including internal modes of climate variability or unaccounted for aerosol effects. To test whether other unknown forcing agents may have contributed to multidecadal increases in global-mean near-surface temperatures from 1950 to 2000. data pertaining to observed changes in global-scale sea surface temperatures and observed changes in radiatively active atmospheric constituents are incorporated into numerical global climate models. Results indicate that the radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trends in sea surface temperatures-and global-mean near-surface temperatures-is provided predominantly by known changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Further, results indicate that less than 10% of the long-term historical increase in global-mean near-surface temperatures over the last half of the twentieth century could have been the result of internal climate variability. In addition. they indicate that less than 25% of the total radiative forcing needed to produce the observed long-term trend in global-mean near-surface temperatures could have been provided by changes in net radiative forcing from unknown sources (either positive or negative). These results, which are derived from simple energy balance requirements. emphasize the important role humans have played in modifying the global climate over the last half of the twentieth century.
    Description: Published
    Description: 7163-7172
    Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano
    Description: JCR Journal
    Description: restricted
    Keywords: climate forcing ; temperature increase ; AGCM ; 01. Atmosphere::01.01. Atmosphere::01.01.02. Climate
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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