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  • Molecular Diversity Preservation International  (495,622)
  • Oxford University Press  (428,978)
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  • 1
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    Comparison between alarm-based and probability-based earthquake forecasting methods (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: In a recent work, we applied the every earthquake a precursor according to scale (EEPAS) probabilistic model to the pseudo-prospective forecasting of shallow earthquakes with magni- tude M 5.0 in the Italian region. We compared the forecasting performance of EEPAS with that of the epidemic type aftershock sequences (ETAS) forecasting model, using the most recent consistency tests developed within the collaboratory for the study of earthquake predictabil- ity (CSEP). The application of such models for the forecasting of Italian target earthquakes seems to show peculiar characteristics for each of them. In particular, the ETAS model showed higher performance for short-term forecasting, in contrast, the EEPAS model showed higher forecasting performance for the medium/long-term. In this work, we compare the performance of EEPAS and ETAS models with that obtained by a deterministic model based on the occur- rence of strong foreshocks (FORE model) using an alarm-based approach. We apply the two rate-based models (ETAS and EEPAS) estimating the best probability threshold above which we issue an alarm. The model parameters and probability thresholds for issuing the alarms are calibrated on a learning data set from 1990 to 2011 during which 27 target earthquakes have occurred within the analysis region. The pseudo-prospective forecasting performance is as- sessed on a validation data set from 2012 to 2021, which also comprises 27 target earthquakes. Tests to assess the forecasting capability demonstrate that, even if all models outperform a purely random method, which trivially forecast earthquake proportionally to the space–time occupied by alarms, the EEPAS model exhibits lower forecasting performance than ETAS and FORE models. In addition, the relative performance comparison of the three models demonstrates that the forecasting capability of the FORE model appears slightly better than ETAS, but the difference is not statistically significant as it remains within the uncertainty level. However, truly prospective tests are necessary to validate such results, ideally using new testing procedures allowing the analysis of alarm-based models, not yet available within the CSEP.
    Description: Published
    Description: 1541–1551
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction, forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Comparison betwee earthquake forecasting methods
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    Low-strength shear zone in the western Makran subduction zone, southeastern Iran: insights from a receiver function analysis (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: To understand the seismic hazard of a subduction zone, it is necessary to know the geometry, location and mechanical characteristics of the interplate boundary below which an oceanic plate is thrust downward. By considering the azimuthal dependence of converted P-to-S (Ps) amplitudes in receiver functions, we have detected the interplate boundary in the Makran subduction zone, revealing significant seismic anisotropy at the base of the accretionary wedge above the slab before it bends down beneath the Jaz Murian basin. This anisotropic feature aligns with a zone of reduced seismic velocity and a high primary/secondary wave velocity ratio (Vp/Vs), as documented in previous studies. The presence of this low-velocity highly anisotropic layer at the base of the accretionary wedge, likely representing a low-strength shear zone, could possibly explain the unusually wide accretionary wedge in Makran. Additionally, it may impact the location and width of the locked zone along the interplate boundary.
    Description: Iranian National Science Foundation (INSF)
    Description: Published
    Description: 64-74
    Description: OST1 Alla ricerca dei Motori Geodinamici
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Earthquake hazards, Seismic anisotropy, Crustal structure, Subduction zone processes ; 04.06. Seismology
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 3
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    Application of the EEPAS earthquake forecasting model to Italy (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-09
    Description: This article has been accepted for publication in Geophysical Journal International ©:The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Royal Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.Uploaded in accordance with the publisher's self-archiving policy. All rights reserved.
    Description: The Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale (EEPAS) forecasting model is a space– time point-process model based on the precursory scale increase (ψ ) phenomenon and associated predictive scaling relations. It has been previously applied to New Zealand, Cal- ifornia and Japan earthquakes with target magnitude thresholds varying from about 5–7. In all previous application, computations were done using the computer code implemented in Fortran language by the model authors. In this work, we applied it to Italy using a suite of computing codes completely rewritten in Matlab. We first compared the two software codes to ensure the convergence and adequate coincidence between the estimated model parameters for a simple region capable of being analysed by both software codes. Then, using the rewritten codes, we optimized the parameters for a different and more complex polygon of analysis using the Homogenized Instrumental Seismic Catalogue data from 1990 to 2011. We then perform a pseudo-prospective forecasting experiment of Italian earthquakes from 2012 to 2021 with Mw ≥ 5.0 and compare the forecasting skill of EEPAS with those obtained by other time in- dependent (Spatially Uniform Poisson, Spatially Variable Poisson and PPE: Proximity to Past Earthquakes) and time dependent [Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS)] forecasting models using the information gain per active cell. The preference goes to the ETAS model for short time intervals (3 months) and to the EEPAS model for longer time intervals (6 months to 10 yr).
    Description: Published
    Description: 1681–1700
    Description: OST4 Descrizione in tempo reale del terremoto, del maremoto, loro predicibilità e impatto
    Description: JCR Journal
    Keywords: Computational seismology ; Earthquake interaction ; forecasting and prediction ; Statistical seismology ; Earthquake forecasting
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
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  • 4
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    Zooplankton seasonal vertical migration in an optimality-based plankton ecosystem model (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-05-06
    Description: Several species from various zooplankton taxa perform seasonal vertical migrations (SVM) of typically several hundred meters between the surface layer and overwintering depths, particularly in high-latitude regions. We use OPtimality-based PLAnkton (OPPLA) ecosystem model) to simulate SVM behavior in zooplankton in the Labrador Sea. Zooplankton in OPPLA is a generic functional group without life cycle, which facilitates analyzing SVM evolutionary stability and interactions between SVM and the plankton ecosystem. A sensitivity analysis of SVM-related parameters reveals that SVM can amplify the seasonal variations of phytoplankton and zooplankton and enhance the reduction of summer surface nutrient concentrations. SVM is often explained as a strategy to reduce exposure to visual predators during winter. We find that species doing SVM can persist and even dominate the summer-time zooplankton community, even in the presence of Stayers, which have the same traits as the migrators, but do not perform SVM. The advantage of SVM depends strongly on the timing of the seasonal migrations, particularly the day of ascent. The presence of higher (visual) predators tends to suppress the Stayers in our simulations, whereas the SVM strategy can persist in the presence of non-migrating species even without higher predators.
    Type: Article , PeerReviewed , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 5
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    The Developer's Dilemma (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-16
    Description: This book explores this developer’s dilemma or ‘Kuznetsian tension’ between structural transformation and income inequality. Developing countries are seeking economic development—that is, structural transformation—which is inclusive in the sense that it is broad-based and raises the income of all, especially the poor. Thus, inclusive economic growth requires steady, or even falling, income inequality if it is to maximize the growth of incomes at the lower end of the distribution. Yet, this is at odds with Simon Kuznets hypothesis that economic development tends to put upward pressure on income inequality, at least initially and in the absence of countervailing policies. The book asks: what are the types or ‘varieties’ of structural transformation that have been experienced in developing countries? What inequality dynamics are associated with each variety of structural transformation? And what policies have been utilized to manage trade-offs between structural transformation, income inequality, and inclusive growth? The book answers these questions using a comparative case study approach, contrasting nine developing countries while employing a common analytical framework and a set of common datasets across the case studies. The intended intellectual contribution of the book is to provide a comparative analysis of the relationship between structural transformation, income inequality, and inclusive growth; to do so empirically at a regional and national level; and to draw conclusions from the cases on the varieties of structural transformation, their inequality dynamics, and the policies that have been employed to mediate the developer’s dilemma.
    Keywords: structural transformation, Kuznetsian tension, economic growth, income inequality, developing countries ; thema EDItEUR::K Economics, Finance, Business and Management::KC Economics::KCM Development economics and emerging economies ; thema EDItEUR::K Economics, Finance, Business and Management::KC Economics::KCG Economic growth
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Data Sovereignty (2023)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-14
    Description: Digital sovereignty—the exercise of control over the Internet—is the ambition of the world’s leaders, from Australia to Zimbabwe, a bulwark against both foreign state and foreign corporation. Governments have resoundingly answered first-generation Internet law questions of who if anyone should regulate the Internet—they all will. The second-generation question to confront is not whether, but how to regulate the Internet. This volume features new theoretical perspectives on digital sovereignty and explores cutting-edge issues associated with it. Drawing mainly on various theories concerning political economy, international law, human rights, and data protection, it presents thought-provoking ideas about the nature and scope of digital sovereignty. It also examines the extent to which new technological developments in sectors, such as artificial intelligence, e-commerce, and sharing economy, have posed challenges to assertion of digital sovereignty, and considers how to deal with such challenges. In particular, the volume discusses the promise and pitfalls of digital sovereignty in the process of trade liberalization, data localization, and human rights protection.
    Keywords: sovereignty, digital technology, data flow, data localization, human rights ; thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Chapter 1 Rethinking our Assumptions about Moral Status (2022)
    Oxford University Press | Rethinking Moral Status
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-14
    Description: Recent technological developments and potential technological developments of the near future require us to try to think clearly about what it is to have moral status and about when and why we should attribute moral status to beings and entities. What should we say about the moral status of human non-human chimeras, human brain organoids, artificial intelligence, cyborgs, post-humans, and human minds that have been uploaded into a computer, or onto the internet? In this introductory chapter we survey some key assumptions ordinarily made about moral status that may require rethinking. These include the assumptions that all humans who are not severely cognitively impaired have equal moral status, that possession of the sophisticated cognitive capacities typical of human adults is necessary for full moral status, that only humans can have full moral status, and that there can be no beings with higher moral status than ordinary adult humans. We also need to consider how we should treat beings and entities when we find ourselves uncertain about their moral status.
    Keywords: artificial intelligence, cyborgs, human brain organoids, human non-human chimeras, moral uncertainty, moral status, post-humans, slavery, species membership, uploaded minds ; thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UY Computer science::UYQ Artificial intelligence
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    The Oxford Handbook of the Sociology of Body and Embodiment (2021)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-14
    Description: The Oxford Handbook of the Sociology of Body and Embodiment challenges the view that bodies belong to the category of “nature” and are biological, essential, and pre-social. It argues instead that bodies both shape and get shaped by human societies. As such, the body is an appropriate and necessary area of study for sociologists. The Handbook works to clarify the scope of this topic and display the innovations of research within the field. The volume is divided into three main parts: Bodies and Methodology; Marginalized Bodies; and Embodied Sociology. Sociologists contributing to the first two parts focus on the body and the ways it is given meaning, regulated, and subjected to legal and medical oversight in a variety of social contexts (particularly when the body in question violates norms for how a culture believes bodies “ought” to behave or appear). Sociologists contributing to the last part use the bodily as a lens through which to study social institutions and experiences. These social settings range from personal decisions about medical treatment to programs for teaching police recruits how to use physical force, from social movement tactics to countries’ understandings of race and national identity. Many chapters throughout the book offer extended methodological reflections, providing guidance on how to conduct sociological research on the body and, at times, acknowledging the role the authors’ own bodies play in developing their knowledge of the research subject.
    Keywords: body, embodiment, methodology, sociological research, marginalization, norms, institutions, personal ; thema EDItEUR::V Health, Relationships and Personal development::VX Mind, body, spirit
    Language: English
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  • 9
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    Rethinking Moral Status (2022)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-14
    Description: Common-sense morality implicitly assumes that reasonably clear distinctions can be drawn between the ‘full’ moral status usually attributed to ordinary adult humans, the partial moral status attributed to non-human animals, and the absence of moral status, usually ascribed to machines and other artefacts. These assumptions were always subject to challenge; but they now come under renewed pressure because there are beings we are now able to create, and beings we may soon be able to create, which blur traditional distinctions between humans, non-human animals, and non-biological beings. Examples are human non-human chimeras, cyborgs, human brain organoids, post-humans, human minds that have been uploaded into computers and onto the internet, and artificial intelligence. It is far from clear what moral status we should attribute to any of these beings. While commonsensical views of moral status have always been questioned, the latest technological developments recast many of the questions and raise additional objections. There are a number of ways we could respond, such as revising our ordinary suppositions about the prerequisites for full moral status. We might also reject the assumption that there is a sharp distinction between full and partial moral status. The present volume provides a forum for philosophical reflection about the usual presuppositions and intuitions about moral status, especially in light of the aforementioned recent and emerging technological advances.
    Keywords: morality, moral status, chimera, cyborg, human brain organoid, post human, non-human animal, artificial intelligence ; thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UY Computer science::UYQ Artificial intelligence
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    The Nature of Physical Computation (2024)
    Oxford University Press
    Details
    Publication Date: 2024-04-14
    Description: Computing systems are everywhere today. Even the brain is thought to be a sort of computing system. But what does it mean to say that a given organ or system computes? What is it about laptops, smartphones, and nervous systems that they are deemed to compute, and why does it seldom occur to us to describe stomachs, hurricanes, rocks, or chairs that way? The book provides an extended argument for the semantic view of computation, which states that semantic properties are involved in the nature of computing systems. Laptops, smartphones, and nervous systems compute because they are accompanied by representations. Stomachs, hurricanes, and rocks, for instance, which do not have semantic properties, do not compute. The first part of the book argues that the linkage between the mathematical theory of computability and the notion of physical computation is weak. Theoretical notions such as algorithms, effective procedure, program, and automaton play only a minor role in identifying physical computation. The second part of the book reviews three influential accounts of physical computation and argues that while none of these accounts is satisfactory, each of them highlights certain key features of physical computation. The final part of the book develops and argues for a semantic account of physical computation and offers a characterization of computational explanations.
    Keywords: Metaphysics; Philosophy of Mathematics & Logic; Philosophy of Computational Science; Philosophy of Mathematics & Logic ; thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UY Computer science ; thema EDItEUR::U Computing and Information Technology::UY Computer science
    Language: English
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